Can grimy wins prolong the Chiefs' reign?
Terrific talents have a shot to punctuate their special NFL seasons with a Super Bowl victory. MVP favorite Josh Allen, rushing champion Saquon Barkley, and rookie showstopper Jayden Daniels lead three of the four conference finalists into Sunday's action.
They aim to unseat the Chiefs, a wobbling dynasty. Living legends amassed immaculate stats while carrying Kansas City to back-to-back Lombardi Trophies and three in total. But the 2024 Chiefs' historic reliance on close wins - they clinched a record 11 by one score - sowed doubt about their staying power and inevitability.
Being able to pull out grimy wins is an asset. These Chiefs scratched, clawed, and benefited from a variety of decisive plays that always broke their way.
In the season opener, the Ravens' potential game-tying catch at the back of the end zone on the final snap was nixed when Isaiah Likely's toe landed out of bounds. Kansas City went on to win with late defensive stands, a last-ditch blocked field goal, and buzzer-beating kicks from Harrison Butker and his two injury replacements.
The Chiefs' pair of 30-point performances were a shadow of their average of eight per season across the rest of Patrick Mahomes' career. They had no commanding divisional wins but scraped by the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders in all but one matchup. Their string of squeakers produced a point differential of plus-59, which would be the lowest for a conference champion since 2015 and one of the 10 lowest since 1970, per Stathead.
They seem impervious to bad bounces and changing luck. Over the past two postseasons, Kansas City went 6-0 in one-score games and celebrated under confetti after marching to a last-gasp field goal and an overtime touchdown. Three years ago Thursday, Mahomes engineered the miraculous 13-second drive that led to Buffalo's crushing defeat in the extra frame.
Sunday's Bills-Chiefs revenge tilt has enormous stakes. Allen continues his quest to join Tom Brady and Joe Burrow as the quarterbacks who've upset Mahomes at the hostile Arrowhead Stadium.
With one more playoff win (his 17th) and four more touchdown passes (he'd have 46), Mahomes would trail only Brady on both career leaderboards. Travis Kelce is 226 receiving yards and three scores away from superseding Jerry Rice as the NFL postseason's most prolific playmaker.
If the AFC title game is close, any of these factors could swing the outcome.
Ball security: Mahomes committed the Chiefs' most recent turnover on a desperation heave at Buffalo in Week 11. They didn't lose the ball in eight ensuing games, compiling the NFL's longest streak of the century, per TruMedia. The Bills had one giveaway in that span and slashed their season total to eight - down from 28 in 2023 - as Allen avoided undue risks.
Success of Chiefs pass rush: Kansas City defenders gave up the seventh-fewest touchdowns (2.2 per game) and ninth-fewest yards per play (5.3). Their eight-sack effort in the divisional round, with a 54% pressure rate of C.J. Stroud, halted the Texans' momentum. On the other side of the line, no offense lost fewer sack yards this century than the 2024 Bills (63 on just 14 takedowns of the elusive Allen), per TruMedia.
Kickers' accuracy: Although Butker hasn't scored from beyond 50 yards since Week 3, he's riding a streak of 15 made field goals in postseason play. Distance doesn't trouble Tyler Bass, who was perfect from beyond 50 yards this season, but the Bills veteran still missed five field goals and whiffed on a league-high five extra points.
The officiating standard: Roughing penalties taken by Houston's defense last weekend prolonged scoring drives and inflamed the conversation about how Mahomes is whistled. The flag rate in 2024 Chiefs matchups - their opponents have taken the 14th-most penalties (6.39 per game) for the 16th-most lost yardage (51.7), per TruMedia - doesn't support the sentiment that he enjoys unique protection.
On the other hand, only three clubs drew more roughing the passer calls. The nine roughing fouls drawn by Mahomes in the playoffs since 2020 - after the Chiefs became a championship team - triple the tally of Allen, the closest quarterback to him.
The journey to the conference finals demanded adjustments from Allen, consistent dominance from Barkley, and wizardry from Daniels in his rookie year. In this round or the next, any of them could prevent the first Super Bowl three-peat by outdueling the sport's scrappiest heavyweight.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.