Saturday player props: Trust Gibbs despite Montgomery's return
The divisional round is here with four tasty matchups for football fans to enjoy.
The Chiefs' march toward a third straight Super Bowl begins Saturday afternoon when they host the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. Then, the Super Bowl favorite Lions welcome the Commanders to Ford Field for a clash that should include plenty of scoring.
We provided our picks for Chiefs versus Texans in our AFC preview and the Lions-Commanders game in our NFC primer. Here, we have you covered with six player props to target for Saturday's action.
Travis Kelce - Over 5.5 receptions (-130)
Travis Kelce had a down year, there's no debating that. He registered the fewest receiving yards of his career (823), the fewest yards per catch (8.5), and only scored three touchdowns.
But it's time for him to be unleashed in what could be the last Super Bowl run of his career. Since 2019, Kelce has averaged 8.25 catches per game in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes trusts his tight end more than anyone else in the Chiefs' offense, so 5.5 receptions should be an easy total to clear.
Xavier Worthy - Over 4.5 receptions (-140)
Even if Kelce gets more of Mahomes' attention, there should still be plenty of targets to go around for Xavier Worthy. The rookie wideout came on very strong at the end of the season, catching five or more passes in each of his final five games.
It wouldn't make sense for the Chiefs' offense to go away from Worthy now. He's been extremely productive catching short passes and racking up yards after the catch. His speed is a tremendous weapon, and he's earned Mahomes' trust.
Patrick Mahomes - Under 24.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Chiefs are favored by eight points at home. This doesn't feel like a game in which Mahomes will need to use his legs and risk taking big hits, especially since he'll likely face either the Bills or Ravens next week.
Mahomes rushed for fewer than 24.5 yards in 12 of 16 games this season. That's a 75% rate, but his -120 odds are implying a probability of 54.5%. Take the value and run - while hoping Mahomes doesn't.
Jahmyr Gibbs - Over 15.5 rushing attempts (+100)
David Montgomery will return to the Lions' offense Saturday night, meaning there could be fewer opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs. However, Gibbs excelled with an increased workload. He carried it 18 or more times in the three games Montgomery missed, surpassing 100 yards rushing each time.
From a strategy standpoint, it's not in the Lions' best interest to decrease Gibbs' workload. There's also a chance Montgomery isn't 100% healthy and is only used in a limited role. Even if Montgomery is good to go and handles 10 or more carries, Gibbs should still surpass 15.5 rushing attempts if the Lions want to capitalize on the Commanders' weak run defense.
Dyami Brown - Over 34.5 receiving yards
Dyami Brown has emerged as the No. 2 receiver in Jayden Daniels' offense. He's caught three or more passes in five straight games and surpassed 34.5 receiving yards in three of his past five. Last week against the Buccaneers, Brown hauled in five balls for 89 yards and a touchdown. Daniels showed he has faith in Brown's ability and should look his way often in a game the Commanders are expected to be trailing.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Over 6.5 receptions (-115)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Jared Goff's go-to guy. He seems to always be open and thrives in short-yardage situations. He caught 115 balls this season, good for second in the NFL, and was tied for 10th in targets.
St. Brown has caught at least seven passes in three career playoff games and surpassed that total seven times this season. The matchup has a 55.5-point total, suggesting both teams will be marching up and down the field all game long.