8 players who will headline the NFL divisional round
Ahead of the NFL divisional round, we assess each matchup in chronological order and single out one key player per team with a chance to make a profound impact.
Texans at Chiefs
Will Anderson, Texans edge rusher: Anderson barrelled into the Chargers' backfield for a couple of sacks last week as Houston's defense throttled Los Angeles. The Texans generated pressure on 19 of 37 dropbacks to swarm Justin Herbert, and they punished his escalating series of miscues with four interceptions.
By expected points added per play, Houston's defensive showing was the third best in the NFL this season and the best in the playoffs since 2006, according to TruMedia. Stonewalling the Chiefs would buy time for the Texans to get on track if their early offensive struggles from the wild-card round (no points, two giveaways, 54 net yards on the first five drives) recur.
Anderson built on his 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year triumph with 11 sacks in 14 appearances this season. The wild-card win was his fourth six-pressure game. He needs to help disrupt Kansas City's rhythm after Patrick Mahomes was sacked just once in 125 dropbacks in his last three starts, per PFF.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs quarterback: The winningest team in Chiefs franchise history contains contrasts. Mahomes' club went 15-1 in his starts despite recording the lowest point differential (plus-59) and fewest offensive yards (327.6 per game, 5.1 per play) of his dazzling career.
Kansas City secured home field by equaling an NFL record with 11 one-score victories. These Chiefs differ from previous teams that relied on close wins but ran out of luck and failed to reach the Super Bowl, including the 2022 Vikings. The Chiefs' defense has been sturdy, and their three-time championship quarterback facilitates the tightrope act.
Expertly closing halves, Mahomes compiled one of the NFL's top passer ratings (105.8) and TD-INT splits (18-2) in the second and fourth quarters of games, per TruMedia. He piloted Kansas City's diminished offense - only the Chiefs and Patriots didn't have a 1,000-yard playmaker - to seven winning drives in the final frame, reiterating that it's hard to frazzle and outlast him.
Commanders at Lions
Brian Robinson, Commanders running back: In a boom-or-bust year, Robinson was often a nonfactor despite eclipsing 100 rushing yards in three Commanders wins. On Wild Card Weekend, he had 16 yards on 10 carries with a longest gain of five.
At his best, Robinson's a legitimate complement to Jayden Daniels, who does it all with his arm and legs. Daniels ranked seventh among NFL quarterbacks in total offense (4,459 passing and rushing yards) and EPA/dropback, per TruMedia. He handled pressure to earn the first playoff road win by a rookie QB in a dozen years when Washington's doinked kick at the buzzer devastated the Buccaneers.
Robinson and Austin Ekeler can gash Detroit's pass defense, which gave up the most receiving yards to running backs (42.4 per game) over the second half of the season, per TruMedia. Their involvement will reflect whether the Commanders dictate the tempo with a balanced plan Saturday or force Daniels to play hero ball to win a shootout.
Kerby Joseph, Lions safety: Fans set their watches to the cadence of Detroit's offense, which marched downfield to house four touchdowns per game and scored on 51.6% of its drives, the fifth-best rate of the past 10 NFL seasons, per TruMedia.
Their unshakeable concern is the ramshackle state of a defense that had to field 30 different starters in 2024 because of the ravages of injury. Joseph - PFF's top-rated safety - strengthened the unit by lining up for 99% of snaps and constantly snaring underthrown balls. He guarded the house, grabbing four of his league-high nine interceptions in the Lions' end zone.
Detroit lost or tied the turnover battle in 10 games. Eight were settled by one score, including both Lions losses. The Commanders can keep this matchup close and prolong their splendid underdog story if they protect the pigskin, but Joseph is lurking.
Rams at Eagles
Matthew Stafford, Rams quarterback: Stafford waited 13 long years to win an NFL playoff game, then he emerged as a clutch performer. The recent Super Bowl winner improved to 5-1 with the Rams in the postseason by releasing the ball fast to pick apart the Vikings' vaunted pressure defense.
Philadelphia is a big test. The Eagles' defense ranks in the top three since midseason in myriad metrics: passing yards allowed (161 per game), total yards allowed (267.9), opponent scoring rate (28.4% of drives), three-and-out rate (44.2%), third-down stop rate (66.4%), and takeaway rate (20.0%), per TruMedia. Opposing pass attacks gained the fewest receiving first downs in that span while fumbling five times after the catch.
Stafford ranks third in EPA/dropback in the postseason over his first four years in L.A. These Rams now support him with lockdown defense: Minnesota was the fourth opponent in five weeks that they held below 10 points.
Jordan Mailata, Eagles left tackle: Mailata is the linchpin of the offensive line that makes Philadelphia functional. His dirty work protects Jalen Hurts and creates holes for Saquon Barkley, and it may help avid reader A.J. Brown post more than one catch.
Hurts needs to be comfortable against the Rams to resurrect the Eagles' passing game. L.A.'s barrage of Vikings QB Sam Darnold produced nine sacks and 27 pressures on 50 dropbacks, per PFF. It was a new dimension for a Rams defense that ranked 21st in sacks and only managed eight during their five-win December hot streak.
Mailata received the best PFF player grade (95.8) across all positions in 2024. He allowed one sack and 14 pressures in 12 games and was a dominant run-blocker. It's no coincidence that Barkley totaled most of his rushing yards (1,198 of 2,005) on carries to the left side of the field.
Ravens at Bills
Derrick Henry, Ravens running back: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are this blockbuster clash's true headliners. The MVP favorites combined to pass and rush for 9,349 yards and 85 touchdowns in the regular season. But no supporting star shines brighter than Henry.
He tallied 1,921 yards with greater efficiency than the superlative Barkley (5.9 yards per carry to Barkley's 5.8). Henry forced the most missed tackles around the NFL (80), scored the most rushing TDs (16), and produced the most 20-plus-yard rushes (19) since Adrian Peterson in 2012, per TruMedia.
His brute strength and balletic feet provide a counter to the ground-and-pound approach that let Buffalo rack up 210 rushing yards and 41 minutes of possession against the Broncos. Henry's tour de force against the Steelers was his record third career 180-yard playoff game and his first with multiple TDs.
Khalil Shakir, Bills wide receiver: "Firing on all cylinders" is a well-worn cliche that's best reserved to describe complete juggernauts like Baltimore. The Ravens were the first NFL squad to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards, and they also fielded this season's stingiest run defense, surrendering just 3.6 yards per carry.
Aerial defense is the Ravens' vulnerability, though even saying that is a stretch: They allowed the lowest passer rating (79.4), third-lowest completion rate (59.7%), and seventh-lowest passing output (202.8 yards per game) from Weeks 10-18 after being leaky in the first half of the season, per TruMedia.
Shakir, Allen's top target, is a slot threat who wiggled into open lanes and sidestepped tacklers to gain the third-most yards after the catch (597). His reception rate on short throws that traveled less than 10 air yards sparkled at 93.2% (69 on 74 targets). It'd be ideal for Buffalo if Shakir teams with lead rusher James Cook to help Allen move the chains and makes one massive grab reminiscent of this September deep shot.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.