How big of long shots are Bengals to sneak into playoffs?
The Bengals' playoff hopes looked bleak as they sat at 4-8 in early December. Their chances are still slim, but they have a chance to sneak in as the final wild-card spot after four consecutive wins. Still, the Bengals are +1100 to make the postseason, giving them an 8% implied probability of playing past Week 18.
The Broncos control their destiny. Denver is in with a win at home against the Chiefs, who would normally be favored against the Broncos. However, Kansas City has already clinched the AFC's 1-seed and is resting many key starters, leading to the Broncos entering Sunday as a 10.5-point favorite.
Denver's starters merely have to beat the Chiefs' backups to earn a trip to the postseason in Bo Nix's rookie campaign, making it a -750 favorite to make the playoffs. But if the Broncos, slipping down the stretch with consecutive losses, choke against the Carson Wentz-led Chiefs, the door is open for Cincinnati.
Of course, the Bengals need the Broncos to lose, but Cincy must also beat the Steelers. The Bengals are a 2-point favorite in Pittsburgh for Saturday night's contest. However, the Ravens will likely clinch the AFC North with a win over the Browns earlier Saturday. The Steelers, who already clinched the playoffs, likely won't be playing for anything by the time kickoff rolls around.
The Bengals, led by MVP candidate Joe Burrow, are one of the NFL's hottest teams. Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards while Ja'Marr Chase leads the league in receiving yards on one of the most prolific offenses. Cincinnati's problem has been its remarkably poor defense, which is responsible for the Bengals' .500 record.
Here's where it gets complicated: Even if the Broncos somehow lose to the Chiefs and the Bengals beat the Steelers, Cincinnati still isn't guaranteed a playoff spot. The Dolphins, who remain in the playoff hunt, must lose for the Bengals to jump them in the standings.
Miami's path to the playoffs is simple but challenging: It must beat the Jets and the Chiefs must defeat the Broncos. The Dolphins are 1-point road favorites against New York, but Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful to play with a hip injury. Miami is +800 to make the playoffs.
The Dolphins and Bengals' playoff hopes hinge on the Chiefs' second-stringers to pull off a miraculous upset.
The Broncos are in the driver's seat, but one wrong turn and they open the door for chaos. If Denver stumbles, the Dolphins have the first crack with a win-and-in scenario. If Denver and Miami falter, the Bengals can sneak in. Denver earns the final spot if all three teams lose in Week 18.
Whoever earns the 7-seed will have a date with the 2-seed Bills in Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.