NFL Playoff Picture: Postseason races taking shape, new No. 1 in projected draft order

Our NFL Playoff Picture looks at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

There are still eight weeks left in the season, but six teams already seem locked in to make the playoffs in the AFC. After finishing as the No. 3 seed last year, the Kansas City Chiefs are on track to regain the conference's top spot this year, as Patrick Mahomes and Co. remain undefeated after a win over the Denver Broncos. But the Buffalo Bills will have a chance to spoil the Chiefs' unbeaten run and increase their chances of potentially having a bye in the wild-card round when the two powerhouses face off in Buffalo in Week 11.

The North is once again the AFC's most interesting division, with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers vying for the division title. The two archrivals still play each other twice this year, including a Week 11 meeting.

The Los Angeles Chargers are three games over .500 after defeating the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and have looked like a playoff team in Jim Harbaugh's first year in town. Barring a collapse in the season's final stretch, only the AFC's No. 7 seed will be up for grabs. Despite a heartbreaking loss to K.C. in Week 10, the Broncos would still make the playoffs if the 2024 campaign ended today.

In the hunt

Though the Cincinnati Bengals are two games below .500, they actually have a 42% chance of making the playoffs compared to the Broncos' 26%, according to The Athletic. With Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Co., Cincy's looked great at points, but its flawed defense hasn't been able to hold on to some of the Bengals' leads this season. The Indianapolis Colts - the only other AFC club with more than three wins so far - win the tiebreaker over the Bengals for having a better win percentage in conference games. However, Indy's postseason chances currently sit at just 23%.

NFC

The resilient Detroit Lions remain the NFC's top team after overcoming Jared Goff's five interceptions to beat the Houston Texans. The red-hot Philadelphia Eagles - winners of five in a row - are only one game behind, though. Despite owning the conference's two best records right now, Detroit and Philadelphia have some competition within their respective divisions. Minnesota - which lost to Detroit earlier this season - hopes to have the division title within reach in the final month of the campaign before facing the Lions again in Week 18. And, while the Washington Commanders lost to the Steelers on Sunday, they still have a chance to win the East with two games against the Eagles left to play. Their season series starts this week on Thursday Night Football.

Only two games separate the competitive NFC West's top club - the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals - and the last-place team - the 4-5 Seattle Seahawks - and the two teams are still slated to face off twice this season. Led by Kyler Murray, Arizona currently has the best chance of winning the division at 42%.

In the hunt

All three other NFC West teams remain in the playoff hunt, and the Los Angeles Rams could increase their chances if they beat the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Los Angeles has looked better since receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injury. Meanwhile, San Francisco 49ers superstar Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in Week 10, and the Offensive Player of the Year helped the Niners beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to claim their second straight win and go over .500 for the first time since Week 1.

Projected NFL draft order

Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants fell to 2-8 after losing on Sunday, but the Jaguars would pick first overall because of their strength of schedule - the team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage is awarded the higher pick. This would mark Jacksonville's third No. 1 pick since 2021 - the team used those selections on quarterback Trevor Lawrence (2021) and edge rusher Travon Walker (2022).

The Carolina Panthers, who had the NFL's worst record a year ago, fell in the draft order by defeating the Giants in Germany in Week 10. With Bryce Young back under center, Carolina has won two consecutive games, marking the franchise's first win streak since September 2021.