Almost everything went right for the 49ers in 2023. They finished 12-5 and rode to the Super Bowl with the enigma that is Brock Purdy prompting annoying punditry despite unparalleled success. The 49ers even led by 10 in the Super Bowl before Patrick Mahomes - the entire NFL's kryptonite - awoke.
Entering the 2024 season with a similarly deep and talented roster, the 49ers have the tools to return to the big game. The odds say it's likely: They're +260 to win the NFC and +600 to win the Super Bowl. But history says otherwise.
The last NFC Super Bowl losers to return to the game the following season were the 1974 Vikings. The only teams to win the Super Bowl after losing it the season prior were the 1971 Cowboys, the 1972 Dolphins, and the 2018 Patriots. Unless a team rosters Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, two of the greatest players of all time, it's incredibly challenging to earn consecutive trips to the Super Bowl.
The Eagles entered the 2023 season as the NFC favorites after a tightly contested Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Philadelphia imploded after a 10-1 start and lost in the opening round of the playoffs.
The 49ers have the best odds of winning the NFC with a 28% implied probability and the second-best odds of winning the Super Bowl. But bettors aren't as bullish. San Francisco is the sixth-most bet team and has received the sixth-most money to win the NFC on theScore Bet and ESPN Bet. It's the fourth-most bet team to win the Super Bowl behind the Chiefs, Lions, and Bengals.
Purdy was an MVP finalist in 2023. He comfortably returns as a productive quarterback with reliable weapons and a brilliant coach. His place among the NFL's top quarterbacks will be heavily debated as long as he's San Francisco's play-caller. But that doesn't matter.
The former Mr. Irrelevant does enough - often more than enough - to lead the 49ers to wins. Purdy's surrounding cast includes Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. That's the NFL's top-ranked skill position group, per ESPN.
San Francisco tied with the Jets for the NFL's highest-graded defense in 2023, according to PFF. There shouldn't be any defensive decline, positioning the defending NFC champions at the top of the conference.
The NFC is the more favorable and less competitive conference, increasing the Niners' chances of returning to the big game. The Lions, Eagles, Packers, and Cowboys trail the 49ers on the NFC oddsboard.
The Eagles are likely the Niners' biggest threat, while the Lions and Packers are hoping for similar success after breakthrough 2023 campaigns. And the Cowboys are, well, the Cowboys - full of drama, turmoil, and scheduled playoff heartbreaks. The NFC is a wide-open conference because it doesn't have the quarterback prowess the AFC does. In ESPN's ranking of the top quarterbacks from anonymous executives, coaches, and scouts, seven of the top eight signal-callers resided in the AFC.
San Francisco is too talented and too well-coached to suffer a debilitating hangover. The franchise has made three straight NFC Championship Games but has no Super Bowl wins to show for it. The mental and physical toll of a Super Bowl loss can't be understated, but anything short of a Lombardi Trophy this season will be a disappointment.
Despite their accomplishments, Kyle Shanahan, Purdy, and the entire cast have much to prove. Oddsmakers believe in them, but history stands in their way.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
