Thanksgiving player props: Spotting value between the Bills and Lions
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"What do you know about wagons?"
"I know enough not to get on them." - Jerry, in response to an inebriated heckler.
You may have heard that nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. But as 10-point favorites in Detroit, we can debate like George and Jerry in "The Red Dot" about whether to be on or off the Bills' bandwagon. I'll be off the wagon here, taking the Lions, plus the points, and regretting it every time there's an obvious imperfection on that sale item like when George bought Elaine a cashmere sweater.
"The Red Dot"
Unlike the massively discounted blemished sweater, there are no markdowns of that nature in the prop market.
Jared Goff's yardage total of 248.5 is nestled within its usual range when he plays indoors; he's hit the over in three of the Lions' last four games at home this season. Those three overs came when Detroit's opponents - the Dolphins, Seahawks, and Commanders - racked up 396 yards or more, which required the Lions to keep up. The under came against the Packers, who were scoreless in the first half of their Week 9 visit.
In this game, the Bills' offensive pace should force the Lions' to throw a lot.
Pick: Jared Goff over 248.5 passing yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Josh Allen's elbow injury was a sobering reminder to the Bills that their quarterback's health is their top priority.
Maybe we're getting fooled by the Bills' new offensive outlook, like when Elaine tricked George into admitting that he knew about the red dot on her sweater, but it seems Buffalo has turned to the ground game the past two contests in order to keep Allen upright. The Bills have run the ball 60 times during that stretch, while Devin Singletary recorded his first three rushing touchdowns of the season.
At least against the Lions, Allen is less likely to be "the guy" around the goal line.
Pick: Devin Singletary anytime touchdown (+100)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
"Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?"
In the three games since, Brock Wright has basically seen his snaps double. He's had just four targets, but that's had a lot to do with the Lions using a run-heavy offense due to game-script situations. Since we think they'll throw the ball more Thursday, it's more likely Goff sees Wright in the end zone as easily as everyone spots the red dot on the cashmere sweater.
Pick: Brock Wright anytime touchdown (+500)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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