NFL Week 13 survivor picks: Trust Tua, Dolphins depending on options

Cliff Hawkins / Getty Images Sport / Getty

For the fifth week in a row, the most popular pick was upset, as the Dallas Cowboys lost as 7.5-point favorites on Thanksgiving - the biggest spread of the week.

I've never seen a run quite like this in all my years playing survivor. It was relatively smooth sailing early on, but it's been pure chaos over the past five weeks. We're down to the nitty-gritty now, but the good news is things are looking relatively safer - famous last words - in Week 13:

AWAY HOME PICK (CR)
Jaguars Rams (-13) LAR (10)
Colts Texans (+9) IND (9)
Vikings Lions (+7) MIN (8)
Cardinals Bears (+8) ARI (8)
Buccaneers Falcons (+11) TB (8)
Broncos Chiefs (-10) KC (7)
Giants Dolphins (-3.5) MIA (7)
49ers Seahawks (+3.5) SF (5)
Eagles Jets (+6.5) PHI (4)
Cowboys Saints (+4.5) DAL (3)
Ravens Steelers (+4) BAL (2)
Chargers Bengals (-3) CIN (1)
Washington Raiders (-2.5) WFT (1)
Patriots Bills (-2.5) BUF (1)

1. Rams (vs. Jaguars)

The Los Angeles Rams couldn't have asked for a better time to play the Jacksonville Jaguars - the ultimate get-right team. It's the perfect spot for Los Angeles to unleash all the frustration that's been building up over the last month.

2. Colts (at Texans)

The Indianapolis Colts took the defending Super Bowl champions to the wire last week and have hardly put a foot wrong during the past month. They've been playing good football for the last nine or so weeks, and that doesn't suddenly stop here against a miserable Houston Texans team Jonathan Taylor might be able to beat on his own. The bye is up next for Indy, so there's no worry of a lookahead here.

3. Vikings (at Lions)

As great as Dalvin Cook is, the Minnesota Vikings don't miss all that much when Alexander Mattison fills in. The same can't be said about the Detroit Lions without D'Andre Swift, as too much pressure will fall on the shoulders of Jared Goff against Mike Zimmer's complicated and swarming defense. The first meeting in Minnesota was a nail-biter, but the Vikings win by double-digits here.

4. Cardinals (at Bears)

Kliff Kingsbury still refuses to confirm whether Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins will be back Sunday, but all signs point to the duo returning against the Chicago Bears. That would put this Arizona Cardinals offense at close to full strength - only Chase Edmonds remains out - as the team looks to hold down the top seed in the NFC against a Bears club in a lost season playing for a lame-duck head coach.

5. Buccaneers (at Falcons)

It took two late pick-6s for the Buccaneers to pull away in the season's first meeting in Tampa. It was much of the same in the game at Raymond James last season, with two very late Bucs touchdown icing what was a close contest. The rematch in Atlanta was much closer, and I think the Falcons can at least make things sweaty here.

6. Chiefs (vs. Broncos)

If you want to go the route of the Kansas City Chiefs, make sure to monitor practice reports throughout the week. This could get ugly if Drew Lock is forced to start in place of an injured Teddy Bridgewater. If the latter is able to play, the Denver Broncos should be able to keep this within the number, but leaving Arrowhead with a win seems unlikely, especially given Andy Reid's excellent record coming out of the bye.

7. Dolphins (vs. Giants)

Tua Tagovailoa doesn't get anywhere near the credit or respect he deserves. I expected the Carolina Panthers to dominate a weak Miami Dolphins offensive line last week, but Tua masks a lot of issues on this team. He ranked first among all quarterbacks in completion percentage, second in yards per attempt, and fourth in passer rating during November. He's done all of that behind a shaky line and with two of his best wide receivers sidelined.

Given how late we are in the season, there's a strong chance you've already used the six teams listed above. In that case, the Dolphins would be my pick ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. Daniel Jones is unlikely to play, and even if he does, he'll be far from full strength against a blitz-heavy Miami defense. The Dolphins keep rolling here and climb back into the playoff picture.

8. Eagles (at Jets)

It sounds like Jalen Hurts is good to play, but I just can't get behind him. If the Eagles fall into any negative game scripts, Hurts isn't capable of throwing them out of it. The New York Jets have been a competitive group at home this season and I can't trust Philly right now with the stakes so high.

9. 49ers (at Seahawks)

Elijah Mitchell is running well and Brandon Aiyuk seems to have sorted out his early season issues, but it's fair to wonder what the 49ers' record would be without Deebo Samuel, who's set to miss this game. Over this recent three-game win streak, Samuel has 305 total yards and five touchdowns, and I'm not willing to put my complete trust in Jimmy Garoppolo and this offense without him, no matter how bad the Seattle Seahawks are playing.

10. Cowboys (at Saints)

The New Orleans Saints are live here with Taysom Hill sparking the offense, and Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Ryan Ramczyk all on track to return. CeeDee Lamb is back, and Amari Cooper could be, as well. That'd be a huge boost for the Cowboys, but the volatility of this team makes it tough to rely on.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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NFL Week 13 survivor picks: Trust Tua, Dolphins depending on options
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