NFL DROY odds: Bet Collins, fade Horn
One of the first orders of business after the NFL draft was to take a stab at Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, we flip to the other side of the ball and spot value for Defensive ROY.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| LB Micah Parsons (DAL) | +400 |
| DE Jaelan Phillips (MIA) | +600 |
| LB Jamin Davis (WFT) | +900 |
| DE Kwity Paye (IND) | +1000 |
| LB Zaven Collins (ARI) | +1100 |
| CB Patrick Surtain II (DEN) | +1200 |
| LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE) | +1400 |
| CB Jaycee Horn (CAR) | +1500 |
| DE Gregory Rousseau (BUF) | +1600 |
| CB Greg Newsome II (CLE) | +2000 |
| LB Azeez Ojulari (NYG) | +2000 |
| DE Jayson Oweh (BAL) | +2000 |
| CB Caleb Farley (TEN) | +2500 |
| S Trevon Moehrig-Woodard (LV) | +2500 |
| CB Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC) | +2500 |
| CB Eric Stokes (GB) | +2500 |
| LB Joe Tryon (TB) | +2500 |
| LB Nick Bolton (KC) | +3300 |
| DT Christian Barmore (NE) | +4000 |
| S Richie Grant (ATL) | +4000 |
| CB Jevon Holland (MIA) | +4000 |
| LB Pete Werner (NO) | +4000 |
| LB Baron Browning (DEN) | +5000 |
| LB Jabril Cox (DAL) | +5000 |
| CB Kelvin Joseph (DAL) | +6600 |
| DE Joseph Ossai (CIN) | +6600 |
| LB Ronnie Perkins (NE) | +6600 |
| LB Chazz Surratt (MIN) | +6600 |
| CB Aaron Robinson (NYG) | +8000 |
Best bets
Zaven Collins (+1100)
Micah Parsons is going to wreak havoc for the Cowboys. However, give me a very similar player in Collins at a much better price.
The Tulsa product can do it all. He posted 7.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, four interceptions - two of which went for touchdowns - a pair of forced fumbles, and a blocked kick in just eight games last season.
He'll find a number of ways to turn loose as a primary chess piece for the Cardinals' defense.
Caleb Farley (+2500)
I'd take a flier on Farley, just as the Titans did with the 22nd pick.
His medicals were a red flag during the draft process - Farley tore an ACL early in his collegiate career, then underwent back surgery in March - but he's on track to return by late July.
The Virginia Tech standout was an All-ACC first-team selection in 2019. He'll fill in Day 1 if healthy and has the potential to shine in a weak AFC South.
Players to avoid
Kwity Paye (+1000)
I really don't see the need to bet an edge rusher at 10-1 or lower despite the position producing three of the last five winners.
There wasn't one bona fide stud in this class - Jaelan Phillips went in the back half of the first round at No. 18 - and it might be a crapshoot as to which pass rusher goes off in 2021.
Jaycee Horn (+1500)
Cornerbacks have won this award just twice since 1998, so make sure you're getting bang for your buck when going this route. In Horn's case, 15-1 simply isn't enough value.
Plus, with matchups twice a year against the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and other daunting weapons in the NFC South, Horn could endure some growing pains in his first season.
Sleeper
Nick Bolton (+3300)
If I'm banking on one long shot to light up the stat sheet, it will be Bolton. He amassed 198 tackles, three sacks, two picks, and 12 pass deflections across 22 games in his final two seasons at Missouri.
Bolton was one of the top impact defenders at the SEC level and will be a fixture on a team that's projected to lead the league in wins. This is great value.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.