2021 Heisman odds: Best bets, busts, and sleepers

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Last year, DeVonta Smith became the first wide receiver in 29 seasons to win the Heisman. It's safe to say the market's expecting the quarterback trend to get back on track this fall.

Signal-callers dominate the 2021 field, including nine of the top-10 players. Here, we'll dive into our best bets, fades, and value picks.

2021 Heisman odds

Player School Odds
QB DJ Uiagalelei Clemson +600
QB Spencer Rattler Oklahoma +600
QB Bryce Young Alabama +800
QB JT Daniels Georgia +1200
QB CJ Stroud Ohio State +1500
QB Sam Howell North Carolina +2000
RB Bijan Robinson Texas +2500
QB D'Eriq King Miami +2500
QB Kedon Slovis USC +3000
QB Matt Corral Ole Miss +3000
RB Breece Hall Iowa State +3500
QB McKenzie Milton Florida State +3500
QB Desmond Ridder Cincinnati +4000
QB Jayden Daniels Arizona State +4000
QB Bo Nix Auburn +5000
RB British Brooks North Carolina +5000
QB Brock Purdy Iowa State +5000
QB Casey Thompson Texas +5000
QB Emory Jones Florida +5000
QB Hendon Hooker Tennessee +5000
RB Kendall Milton Georgia +5000 
QB Malik Cunningham Louisville +5000
RB Marcus Major Oklahoma +5000
RB Max Borghi Washington State +5000
RB Tank Bigsby Auburn +5000

Only displaying odds of 50-1 or shorter

Bet

D'Eriq King (+2500)

King checks most of the boxes I'm looking for when analyzing the Heisman market: He's a stat-padding, dual-threat quarterback, playing in a major conference on a team that could flirt with double-digit wins.

He was brilliant in 2018, albeit at the mid-major level, accounting for 50 touchdowns at Houston. After taking a midseason redshirt in '19, King and the Hurricanes scratched the surface of something special in his first season under center alongside new offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee.

Miami picked up the pace and saw fantastic results, putting up 0.7 more yards per play and 11.4 more points per game than it did in 2019.

Entering the offseason, the Hurricanes were No. 1 in the country in returning offensive production. This is a great bet at 25-1.

Fade

Bijan Robinson (+2500)

I'll gladly fade the first running back on the board in a quarterback-driven field, though it's easy to see why the market's so fond of the Texas running back.

Robinson's not only decorated - he was the No. 1 RB prospect in the 2020 class - but he's also carrying some serious momentum into the season: The 6-foot star averaged an impressive 130.5 yards per game over his final four contests, consistently ripping off ridiculous runs such as this one.

However, Texas is plus-money to surpass its win total of eight, and who knows how many victories it'll need for Robinson to warrant enough consideration.

Plus, with fellow teammate and quarterback Casey Thompson's odds on the rise, I'm afraid we're giving Texas too much respect in 2021.

McKenzie Milton (+3500)

Milton's return to the gridiron is a sensational story, but one that I can't put too much stock into as a bettor.

The former UCF QB sustained a career-altering leg injury late in 2018 and is gearing up for his first real action since. He placed eighth in Heisman voting the year prior when he totaled more than 4,000 passing yards and 45 total touchdowns; can he really do much more?

Milton's not even a top-five quarterback in the ACC, and Florida State, in general, would be fortunate enough to nab a bowl berth in 2021. This is the easiest pass on the board.

Sleeper

Emory Jones (+3500)

Florida's seriously flying under the radar for a program that was close to breaking through to the playoff last year.

To be fair, quarterback Kyle Trask's a tough act to follow after leading the country in touchdown passes (43) and finishing second in yards (4,283). But all hope isn't lost for a unit putting an emphasis on airing the ball out.

Head coach Dan Mullen's become more pass-heavy in recent years since touching down in Gainesville. Is it due to personnel, or is he finally succumbing to the modern-day style?

Florida pass-play percentage under Dan Mullen

Year Pass-Play Percentage
2018 40.8%
2019 56.7%
2020 57.3% 

Either way, it presents some upside on Jones, who's waited his turn since being tagged the No. 5 dual-threat prospect in the 2018 cycle. Although he loses two first-rounders in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Kadarius Toney, there's plenty of speed and playmaking ability on the outside.

Jacob Copeland caught 23 passes for more than 400 yards in a crowded receiver room last season, while five-star receiver Justin Shorter is still awaiting his breakout. The running backs will also boost the passing game, as Dameon Pierce, Nay'Quan Wright, and Malik Davis combined for 67 receptions in 2020.

Lastly, Jones' dual-threat abilities will help pad his stats in areas Trask couldn't. Florida could very well sniff double-digit wins this fall, and an encore in the wake of Trask would certainly appeal to the voters.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.

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2021 Heisman odds: Best bets, busts, and sleepers
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