Bubble watch: Who's projected in, out of NCAA Tournament?

While Selection Sunday is nearly two weeks away, NCAA tourney brackets are already taking shape. Programs on the brink are making their final pushes for a coveted spot, battling through the season's final games and upcoming conference tournaments.

Bubble season has arrived, and we're breaking down several teams' chances of earning a bid using odds from theScore Bet.

To make the NCAA Tournament odds

👉 You can find full March Madness futures on theScore Bet here

Miami (Ohio)

Rarely do 28-0 teams find themselves on the bubble, but Miami (Ohio) is in a peculiar spot. With three games remaining, the RedHawks will likely become the fourth squad since 2000 to finish the regular season undefeated. However, they must win the MAC Tournament, where they'll be heavy favourites, to guarantee a spot in the NCAA tourney.

Miami has played an easy schedule as high-major teams become less willing to book games against quality mid-majors. But that schedule has hurt the team's metrics. The RedHawks rank 82nd overall on KenPom and 288th on its strength-of-schedule metric. They're also 48th in the NET rankings. Does Miami deserve an at-large bid over a major conference program? Though it's hard to imagine the committee leaving an undefeated regular-season team out of March Madness, the RedHawks can put any doubt to rest by winning their conference tournament.

Indiana

ESPN's bracketology has Indiana as the last team in the NCAA Tournament, which is an uncomfortable spot as bid stealers emerge during conference tournaments. But the Hoosiers control their own destiny.

Indiana plays No. 13 Michigan State at home on Sunday, a massive opportunity to boost its resume with a win. The Hoosiers also close the season against Ohio State, a team they're competing with for an at-large bid. The Buckeyes are currently out of the projected field but are one spot ahead of Indiana in the NET rankings and four spots ahead on KenPom. The Hoosiers' 2-10 Quad 1 record might ultimately hurt them, but they still have a chance to improve that over the final three games and the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State

Ohio State's 1-10 Quad 1 record could tank its at-large candidacy. Like Indiana, the Buckeyes have opportunities to emerge on the right side of the bubble with late-season wins that could boost their resume, including a home showdown against No. 8 Purdue on Sunday.

Unless either team makes an impressive conference tournament run, Ohio State and Indiana's season finale matchup next Saturday in Columbus could knock the loser out of the picture and bolster the winner's at-large stock.

Auburn

Auburn has a fascinating case, which explains why oddsmakers view its inclusion as a toss-up. ESPN ranks the Tigers among the last teams to make the Big Dance. With a 6-9 SEC record and 15-13 overall, Auburn faces a tough challenge, as squads with losing conference records don't typically get a spot in the tournament. However, the Tigers play in the nation's best conference. The SEC is projected to send 11 teams to March Madness this year, down from the record 14 it sent in 2025.

According to KenPom, Auburn has played the nation's hardest schedule. And not only do the Tigers play in the deepest conference, but their nonconference schedule features three losses to top-five teams (Michigan, Arizona, and Houston) and a win over No. 15 St. John's. Their 5-11 Quad 1 record includes wins over Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky - all surefire NCAA tourney teams. Although Auburn must close the season with a winning record against Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama, its resume already makes a strong case for inclusion.

Santa Clara

Many of the advanced numbers favor Santa Clara, which sits 41st in the NET rankings and 38th on KenPom. That explains why the Broncos are projected as one of the last teams to make the dance, despite playing in a relatively weak conference and owning a 1-5 Quad 1 record. Santa Clara also lacks a truly impressive win, holding a 1-3 mark against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's - the top teams in the West Coast Conference. A late surge from a power conference bubble team or a surprise bid stealer could knock the Broncos out of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament.

California

California doesn't have a strong NCAA tourney case, which creates value in betting it misses the dance at +115. The Golden Bears are projected as the first team out and place 57th in the NET rankings and 61st on KenPom. They also sit below their bubble competitors like Indiana, Ohio State, Auburn, and Santa Clara in nearly every notable metric the selection committee uses, including WAB (wins above bubble).

California's best argument is its 4-4 Quad 1 record. But unless they beat Duke and Virginia in the ACC Tournament, the Golden Bears don't have many opportunities to bolster their resume. They'll finish the regular season against Pitt, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech - three of the five worst ACC teams.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.