ACC Tournament preview: Can anyone stop a Tobacco Road rematch?

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ACC supremacy has long gone through Tobacco Road, but perhaps never so much as it has this season. Duke and North Carolina reign supreme over the rest of the conference. Historically, there's been a rotating cast of tertiary contenders: Virginia, Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, and even Georgia Tech have either won the ACC or made the Final Four in the last decade.

This year, the cornerstone conference might get a fourth entry into the NCAA Tournament. As a result, bettors are given a choice - pick your poison from college hoops' greatest rivalry or find a team that can turn desperation into a shocking result at long odds.

Tournament odds

With multi-bid leagues, we'll help clarify what each team is playing for by putting it in one of four categories. Those categories are: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Early-round bet

First round: (14) Miami vs. (11) Boston College
Projected line: Miami (-1)

Even without banged-up veteran Nijel Pack - or any pure point guard - to translate what coach Jim Larranaga wants from the whiteboard onto the hardwood, the Hurricanes are the more talented group. So we'll back them to win over Boston College on their third try.

Earl Grant's modestly improved the Eagles over three years in Chestnut Hill, but I trust Larranaga to adequately prepare for how to handle 7-footer Quinten Post. I don't exactly expect the Hurricanes to make a run to the Final Four because of their lack of depth, so the ACC's second round will have to do.

Pick: Miami (-1)

First round: (13) Georgia Tech vs. (12) Notre Dame
Projected line: Notre Dame (-1)

Coaching is a running theme throughout tournament handicapping, particularly in the early rounds. Micah Shrewsberry made two surprising Big Ten tournament runs with Penn State, winning three games as an 11-seed in 2022 before making the Big Ten final last year. In both cases, the Nittany Lions didn't have the size to match up with Zach Edey.

Shrewsberry is now the boss at Notre Dame, and it's taken some time to get the Irish going. But their 5-3 close to the regular season could spark a momentum boost. And the Irish's top scorers have matured throughout the season, so the team has a higher floor than Damon Stoudamire's Yellow Jackets.

Pick: Notre Dame (-1)

Late-round matchup(s) to target

Semifinal: (6) Clemson vs. (2) Duke
Projected spread: Duke -4.5

We'll back Clemson to beat Virginia - a team that's painful to watch offensively and doesn't translate good defense into offense - and head into a matchup with Duke. The Tigers are the only team at the bottom of the bracket that can fight the Blue Devils' offensive fire with fire. Clemson may get a chance to avenge the loss at Cameron Indoor Stadium - which came as a result of last-second free throws - in its lone meeting with Duke and could very well topple the ACC powerhouse.

Pick: Clemson (+4.5)

Virginia Tech (+3300)

Of the two top dogs, North Carolina (+190) is the choice. But if you're looking for a low-investment play, you can do worse than Virginia Tech at 33-1.

North Carolina and Duke are infamous for struggling in games after their high-intensity clashes. If the Hokies get past Florida State in the infamous 8-9 game, they could jump on UNC if the Tar Heels aren't playing at the level they need to.

Virginia Tech's guard-centric attack has the highest rim and 3-point (R3) rate in the conference and boasts veteran scorers Hunter Cattoor and Sean Pedulla. So the program could very well pull off the upset as a projected 7-point underdog. At that point, I'll happily take the Hokies in a coin-flip matchup with Pittsburgh in the semifinal. If the Blue Devils aren't around on Saturday night, the Hokies get another toss-up game. And even if Duke is the opponent, a 30-1 ticket still ensures profit.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.