NCAA Tournament best bets: The First Four

If the participants in this year's NCAA Tournament First Four seem like they've been here before, it's because many have. Texas Southern, back for a third straight year, returns along with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, among others. And after the Tigers beat the Islanders last year, we have a chance to resurface this beauty:

It's understandable that some of the 16-seeds are regulars after dominating low-rated conferences for years at a time. Perhaps Arizona State should invest in a timeshare in Dayton, as the team is back in the First Four for the third time since 2018.

(16) Southeast Missouri State vs. (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (-4, 155.5)

Southeast Missouri State had something of a Cinderella run as the 5-seed in the OVC Tournament, winning four games in four nights while beating more rested teams that all finished higher in the standings. Unfortunately for the Redhawks, the Islanders - the class of the Southland - are better than any team in the OVC, a conference ravaged by the departure of Belmont and Murray State.

More than a week after that magical run, Southeast Missouri State should come back to earth. With Corpus-Christi having experience in Dayton - and perhaps a chip on its shoulder after last year's loss - the Islanders are the play. Expect their trio of top scorers to deliver, especially after leading scorer Trevian Tennyson came off the bench for 18 points to keep his team in the game against Texas Southern in last year's First Four.

Pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (-4)

(11) Pittsburgh vs. (11) Mississippi State (-2.5, 133)

Either of these teams could be a problem for Iowa State in the main bracket, and we've backed both as long shots in futures markets recently. Though those big swings didn't work out at the conference level, there was reason to like both Pittsburgh and Mississippi State.

Now that this line has crept out to the high side of a single possession, back the Panthers. The Bulldogs got a win in the SEC Tournament but were extremely sloppy in both games in Nashville, coughing up 20 turnovers against Florida alone. They can't mask 12.7 turnovers per game the way a high-octane offense can.

If nothing else, take the team that can shoot from distance (Pittsburgh, 36%) over the team that can't (Mississippi State, 26.6%) - especially if we're getting points.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+2.5)

(16) Fairleigh Dickinson vs. (16) Texas Southern (-2, 145.5)

Someone will have to explain how the two-time SWAC champions finished in eighth place before running through the conference tournament yet again. But Texas Southern's regular season is irrelevant now. For a small-conference squad that will be run over by a 1-seed in a few days, this is the spotlight moment.

Sophomore Davon Barnes has emerged as the Tigers' leading scorer alongside three seniors who average double-digits and played key roles in last year's First Four win, but it's the defense that will be the difference; Texas Southern's length and athleticism will disrupt a Fairleigh Dickinson team that didn't shoot or rebound at an elite level in the NEC this season.

Pick: Texas Southern (-2)

(11) Nevada vs. (11) Arizona State (-2, 133.5)

Nevada had a chance to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament in the Mountain West quarterfinals, but it lost on a neutral court to San Jose State; notice the Spartans are not in the bracket. In fact, the Wolf Pack ended the season with three straight losses as decently sized favorites. That's not exactly a strong case to submit to the committee, but here they are anyway.

Arizona State had a chance to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament in the PAC-12 quarterfinals, and it beat USC in a wire-to-wire win. With the Trojans in the main bracket, that was probably the final data point that got ASU back to Dayton.

The Wolf Pack should probably be favored based on KenPom ratings, but ShotQuality metrics suggest the Sun Devils are better at creating good offense. Fundamentally, trust Bobby Hurley - who has won here before - as the better bet over Steve Alford, who's had tournament success at UCLA and little elsewhere.

Pick: Arizona State (-2)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.