CBB betting: How to bet the ACC Tournament

While it's already been a raucous start to March, things definitely get turned up a notch when the big boys get their first look at the last chance to impress. The ACC is the first of the multi-bid leagues to get things going on Tuesday, and the excitement can be summed up in two words:

Tournament odds

Each team has one of four categorical statuses. They are either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Early-round bet to make

(13) Georgia Tech vs. (12) Florida State
Tuesday, 2:00pm EST

The ACC Tournament tips off with two teams headed in different directions. It has been a plainly rotten year for Florida State, and they've closed the season 2-9 in their final 11 with a win over a bigger dumpster fire - Louisville - and a miracle in Miami. Only 70% of their shots are at the rim for three, and their ShotQuality is third-worst in the ACC.

While Florida State won the only meeting against Georgia Tech, that was much earlier in the season. The Ramblin' Wreck suffered a midseason swoon when their best shooter - Lance Terry (40% from three) - missed four games. Some of those could have been wins with the Yellow Jackets' above-average offense, as suggested by a 6-2 record after Terry returned. The Seminoles were last in the league in defending the 3-pointer, so shots should be available for Terry and others.

Losses at Wake Forest and at Pittsburgh are quite excusable, but (2021 ACC tourney champ) Josh Pastner not beating Leonard Hamilton's mismatched group would be inexcusable.

Pick: Georgia Tech (-2 or better)

Late-round matchup(s) to target

(5) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Duke
Quarterfinal, March 9

"Coach K" disciple Jeff Capel has managed to gel the Panthers into a dangerous squad that exemplifies good chemistry. Pittsburgh's resume took a hit with a couple of tough road spots on the schedule to close the regular season, but they showed they can hurt Duke when they had an 11-point lead early in the second half at Cameron in their lone meeting.

The Panthers were significantly out-rebounded in that game, allowing Duke to come back and win - something that won't be lost on Capel. Pitt didn't get a chance to host the Blue Devils, so a neutral-site matchup will have to do. Pittsburgh is actually the better shooting team at 36.4% from three in-conference, but they only shot 6/27 on the road in Durham.

The Florida State-Georgia Tech winner shouldn't be much more than a soft warm-up for Pitt, while Duke doesn't have a high NCAA Tournament seed on the line, setting up a possible letdown after a high-intensity win in Chapel Hill on Saturday. The Devils won't be the more motivated group on Thursday, so the rebound margin should tighten up, along with the score.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+3.5 or better)

(7) North Carolina/(2) Virginia vs. (3) Clemson
Semifinal, March 10

Future historians will look back upon the 2022-23 ACC season and wonder "How was Clemson the 3-seed in the tournament that year?"

ShotQuality.com has the 22-9 Tigers more resembling a 16-15 squad, which is indicative of why ESPN's Joe Lunardi thinks Clemson is on the outside, looking in at a NCAA berth. The Tigers built up a good conference record thanks to getting to play Day 1 ACC tourney teams Louisville, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Virginia Tech - twice each for a 7-1 record. Add in tiebreakers thanks to a one-point win over Pitt and beating Duke at home and you've got an inflated record.

In fairness to Clemson, they beat North Carolina State handily twice. So while I'll be on the Wolfpack - at around pick'em - in the quarters, you can at least make a case the Tigers are better. However, should they survive the 'Pack, the Tigers are a hard fade in the semifinals.

Their most likely opponent is either Virginia or North Carolina, who are rated very closely in the market, and would be roughly 3-point favorites on a neutral site with Clemson. It's worth laying a few points to fade the Tigers.

Pick: North Carolina/Virginia (-4 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

A path to the final of Wake Forest, Miami, and Pittsburgh doesn't sound that daunting for a team like Syracuse that is constantly an in-tournament nightmare, especially at 66-1. So let's throw a couple bucks on that just in case.

However, Pittsburgh would follow recent ACC Tournament history, littered with non-blue bloods culminating in a significant season with a deep conference tournament run. Getting by Duke would set up a semifinal with Miami, who they split with in close home-team wins this season.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+900)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.