What on earth is happening?
We're just three days into the conference semifinals, and already this feels like one of the wildest second rounds we've ever seen. If your head is spinning from everything that's transpired, here's a rundown of five things you need to know, with five more coming tomorrow.
Note: I'll have more on Knicks-Celtics later in the week, so that series doesn't feature as prominently here. And I'll have thoughts on Warriors-Timberwolves and Cavaliers-Pacers in Thursday's takeaways.
There's no place like road
Since the NBA moved to a 16-team playoff format in 1984, there's never been a second round in which the road teams won every Game 1. At least that was the case until Indiana, New York, Denver, and Golden State pulled off the feat this week. With the Pacers also stealing a second game in Cleveland on Tuesday night, visiting teams are now 5-0 to start the conference semis.
But what's made this round feel so wild and unpredictable isn't just that all the lower-seeded teams have immediately snatched home-court advantage - it's how those games have been won.
Crazy comebacks and endgame fiascos
We're not even halfway into the playoffs, and we've already seen more 20-point comebacks than in any other postseason in the play-by-by era, which dates back to 1997. Two of those came in the last two days, with the Knicks and Pacers both roaring back from 20 down to stun the Celtics and Cavaliers, respectively. And while the Nuggets never faced quite that large a deficit in their Game 1 win in Oklahoma City, their comeback was nearly as unthinkable.
To put some numbers to it, let's use Inpredictable's win probability tracker. The Celtics' Game 1 win probability peaked at 96.8%, when Derrick White hit a three to give them a 75-55 lead with under six minutes to play in the third quarter. The Thunder's probability reached as high as 97.5%, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander buried a step-back that put them up 11 with just over four minutes left in the fourth.
And the Cavaliers' likelihood of victory in their Game 2 crested at 99.6%, in the split-second between Pacers forward Pascal Siakam missing a free throw and Aaron Nesmith ramming home a putback dunk with Indiana trailing by seven and 47 seconds remaining.
The wild swings in those games were defined not only by clutch shot-making and pristine execution by the winning teams, but by sloppy play and catastrophic decision-making by the losers.
The Thunder's inflexible endgame strategy backfired spectacularly, as we covered here. The Celtics missed a cavalcade of threes and completely let go of the rope at the defensive end, surrendering run-outs, back cuts, and clean catch-and-shoot looks. Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday miscommunicated a switch to gift Jalen Brunson a wide-open three that put the Knicks up six late in regulation. After Boston came back to tie it, Brown made the disastrous decision to double OG Anunoby from the strong side on a post-up against Jayson Tatum, conceding a Mikal Bridges three that held up as the winning bucket in overtime. (Brown had a rough game all around).
But Indiana's comeback - or Cleveland's collapse, depending on how you look at it - deserves its own category.
Pacers' devil magic
The Miami Heat had a good run, but a different team now wields the sorcery capable of crafting inexplicable playoff outcomes.
Up until a week ago, only one team in the play-by-play era had ever come back to win a playoff game after being down three possessions in the final minute of regulation or overtime - the 2014 Thunder against the Clippers in the infamous Chris Paul meltdown game. In over 1,500 such scenarios, every other team had lost. The Pacers have since made that comeback twice in three games, first to close out the Bucks and then to go up 2-0 on the Cavs.
As mentioned above, Cleveland led Game 2 by seven with 47 seconds on the game clock when Siakam missed the second of two free throws. Here's what happened after that:
- Nesmith putback dunk, five-point game
- Donovan Mitchell offensive foul in the backcourt, Pacers ball, Mitchell to the bench
- Jarrett Allen blocks Tyrese Haliburton, Cavs can't corral the loose ball, Pacers retain possession
- Siakam driving layup, three-point game
- Kenny Atkinson calls his final timeout to reinsert Mitchell, Cavs throw the ensuing inbounds pass right to the Pacers
- Mitchell called for a questionable foul on Haliburton, Cavs can't challenge because they're out of timeouts
- Haliburton makes the first free throw, two-point game
- He (intentionally?) misses the second, Myles Turner taps the rebound back to him, he dribbles it out to isolate against Ty Jerome and hits a go-ahead step-back three with 1.1 seconds to go
- Cavs can't advance the ball (again, no timeouts left), Sam Merrill's heave isn't close, ballgame over
Take nothing away from the Pacers, who have done everything right on these last-minute possessions with zero margin for error. But they've also needed some fortuitous bounces, on top of their opponents completely falling apart mentally and physically, for their comebacks to be possible. Indiana's an undeniably skilled team, but was it skill that caused Gary Trent Jr. to forget how to hold a basketball? Or the Cavs to forget how to box out or inbound the ball? Nah, that was pure voodoo.
Nikola Jokic is best at this
Simply put, everyone in the second round has been outshined by Jokic. That'll happen when the three-time MVP goes for 42 points and 22 rebounds in a stunning upset against one of the best defensive teams in modern NBA history.
The Thunder tried everything under the sun in their attempts to slow Jokic down. They put Chet Holmgren on him while Isaiah Hartenstein roamed off Aaron Gordon, they tried Hartenstein on him while Holmgren roamed off Gordon, they pre-rotated to try and take away his short rolls, they veer-switched smaller guys onto him to take away his pick-and-pops, they had wings stunting and digging down on his dribble, they tried hard-doubling and soft-doubling him in the post. They forced him into seven turnovers. But pivot after reverse pivot, push shot after push shot, offensive rebound after offensive rebound, he kept finding his way to his sweet spots and kept Denver in the game long enough for OKC to collapse.
This series is a clash of the two overwhelming MVP favorites, and while it shouldn't be a referendum on who wins the regular-season award - there's a strong case to be made that Gilgeous-Alexander had the better campaign - it's perfectly fine to use it as evidence that Jokic is undoubtedly still the best player in the world. That may not be enough to win the Nuggets the series, but it should be enough to put the fear of God in the 68-win Thunder.
SGA's co-stars are back under the microscope
Even if he wasn't on Jokic's level, Gilgeous-Alexander was brilliant in his own right in Game 1, pouring in 33 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists and making a handful of big shots down the stretch. It was his two co-stars, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who faded while the Nuggets stormed back.
Williams was characteristically awesome defensively, but he shot 1-for-7 in the fourth quarter and 5-for-20 in the game, missing badly on his jumpers when he wasn't barreling into traffic without a plan. Holmgren barely touched the ball in the final frame and struggled throughout the game to get anything going when the Nuggets defended him with wings and stashed Jokic elsewhere. At the other end, he blocked four shots but also got physically overwhelmed by both Jokic and Gordon at points, contributing to Denver's 21 offensive rebounds. He also missed a pair of free throws to set the stage for Gordon's game-winning three.
It wouldn't have been so disconcerting if it didn't look so similar to last year's second round, when Gilgeous-Alexander pulled his weight but couldn't get his teammates to come along for the ride. Williams and Holmgren, in particular, need to be able to relieve the pressure on him. Until they prove they can, the pressure will also be squarely on them.
Joe Wolfond covers the NBA for theScore.
