Stay or go? How MLBers with opt-outs should handle free agency

Baseball's offseason is officially underway. A handful of players can add additional star power to the free-agent market if they choose to opt out of their current deals. Those decisions must be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series (Nov. 4). Let's take a look at each case and decide whether these players should test the market.

Statistics are from 2024, ages as of June 30, 2025.

Cody Bellinger, Cubs

Position: OF/1B
Age: 29
What he'd give up: 2 years, $52.5M (including 2026 player option)
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

Bellinger's bounce-back 2023 campaign didn't spark his market last year, so he returned to the Cubs on a three-year contract early in spring training. The former MVP started games at three positions in 2024 but only appeared in 130 contests for the second straight year because of injuries. His numbers, both traditional and advanced, also regressed slightly. If he returns to Chicago, he'll have another player option next winter.

Should he opt out? No. The outfield market beyond Juan Soto isn't particularly robust this winter, but that doesn't mean Bellinger will be able to exceed, or even match, the rest of his current deal. Stay with the Cubs, keep drawing that nice salary, and re-evaluate next November.

Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Position: RHP
Age: 34
What he'd give up: 4 years, $144M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

An elbow injury delayed Cole's season debut until June, and he failed to throw 100 innings in a 162-game season for the first time. Last year's AL Cy Young winner didn't quite match his 2023 performance, but he was still a fearsome presence atop the Yankees' rotation and had an excellent postseason for the AL champions. New York can void an opt-out by adding a 10th year at $36 million to Cole's record contract.

Should he opt out? Cole loves pitching for the Yankees, and New York loves having him. But that doesn't guarantee the club would hand him another $36 million after an injury-shortened season. Had Cole defended his Cy Young, it would've been a no-brainer to opt out and force the team's hand. Now, he should probably play it safe and take the $144-million guarantee.

Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers

Position: RHP
Age: 35
What he'd give up: 1 year, $20M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

Eovaldi earned this player option by throwing 314 2/3 total innings for the Rangers over the past two seasons. While not an ace, he remains an effective mid-rotation starter capable of eating innings and playing a key role on a contender. He's only one year removed from an All-Star appearance and led Texas in almost every important pitching category this season.

Should he opt out? This is a tough call because of Eovaldi's age and history of elbow injuries. He would be a wanted man in free agency, but would teams be comfortable giving Eovaldi three years at this stage of his career if that's what he wants? This is probably his last chance to get a long-term deal, so he likely will opt out, for better or worse.

Wilmer Flores, Giants

Position: 1B/3B/2B
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 1 year, $3.5M (conditional)
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

After putting together a career-best 2023 campaign, Flores did a complete 180 and endured the worst statistical season of his 12-year career. He was close to a nonfactor for the Giants in the first half before a knee injury ended his season. If he opts out, San Francisco gains an $8.5-million club option with no buyout.

Should he opt out? No. The Giants will decline that option in a second if they get the chance, and there's no way Flores gives up his guaranteed $3.5-million salary after the year he just had.

Lucas Giolito, Red Sox

Position: RHP
Age: 30
What he'd give up: 1 year, $19M plus potential 2026 option
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats: Injured, did not pitch

Giolito was looking to bounce back from a rough 2023 in a Red Sox uniform. Unfortunately, he suffered a UCL injury in spring training, which resulted in season-ending elbow surgery.

Should he opt out? No, and this might be the easiest choice of all. Any chance of an opt-out went out the window the moment he got hurt. If Giolito bounces back and throws 140 innings in 2025, Boston's $14-million option for 2026 will convert into a $19-million mutual option.

Mitch Haniger, Mariners

Position: RF
Age: 34
What he'd give up: 1 year, $15.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

A return to Seattle didn't spark Haniger at all. While he played in over 100 games for the first time in three year, his .620 OPS was a career low, and he was particularly dreadful against left-handed pitching.

Should he opt out? There's no way Haniger matches that salary on the open market, and he knows it. He'll run it back with the Mariners for one more year, perhaps in an expensive platoon role.

Rhys Hoskins, Brewers

Position: 1B
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $18M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

Hoskins tried to rebuild his value in Milwaukee after missing all of 2023 with a torn ACL. The power was certainly still there, but his .214/.303/.419 slash line was the lowest of his career. He also posted negative defensive numbers at first base, the only position he's capable of playing. Hoskins will get a $4-million buyout if he elects for free agency but would also forfeit an $18-million mutual option for 2026.

Should he opt out? It would be a risk. While he'd be one of the better non-Pete Alonso first basemen available this winter, Hoskins might be a DH-in-waiting whose output beyond home runs is limited. A long-term deal is also unlikely. Unless he truly detests bratwurst, he's staying with the Brewers.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Position: LHP
Age: 37
What he'd give up: 1 year, $5M plus up to $20M worth of incentives
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

The Dodgers icon returned from offseason shoulder surgery in the second half but ran into injury troubles once again, as a toe issue ended his season after just seven starts.

Should he opt out? Kershaw has already said he'll run it back with Los Angeles in 2025. It's the right decision.

Sean Manaea, Mets

Position: LHP
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 1 year, $13.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

A revamped delivery helped Manaea author a stellar comeback season for the Mets. He put up career-best marks in ERA and innings pitched while leading New York in strikeouts in the regular season. Manaea then put in a trio of solid playoff starts during the Mets' run to the NLCS.

Should he opt out? Absolutely. An outstanding postseason solidified this decision for Manaea, who will be a wanted man. After a few years in the wilderness, he has re-established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can eat innings and be counted on in the playoffs. The long-term deal he's been seeking is out there waiting for him.

Nick Martinez, Reds

Position: RHP
Age: 34
What he'd give up: 1 year, $12M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

Martinez turned in a career year for the Reds after opting out of a complex deal with the San Diego Padres last winter. While not a star, he's an intriguing name to watch thanks to his versatility on the mound. Martinez thrived as both a starter and reliever for Cincinnati in 2024, bouncing between roles with relative ease. His 1.14 BB/9 rate ranked second in the majors among pitchers with at least 140 innings.

Should he opt out? Martinez might not match that $12-million annual salary, but he could probably get another multi-year deal that beats his current $26-million contract by total value. He took a risk opting out last year, and it seems to have paid off. Since this is probably Martinez's last chance at a big deal, he should test the market again.

Jordan Montgomery, D-Backs

Position: LHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $20M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

What a difference a year makes. After emerging as a World Series hero for the Rangers last October, Montgomery only found his next contract in Arizona shortly after Opening Day, and it turned out to be a disaster. The left-hander was bumped to the bullpen amid a career-worst season that led owner Ken Kendrick to call Montgomery the franchise's "biggest mistake."

Should he opt out? No. It's clear both sides want to move on from one another, but Montgomery isn't giving up that $20 million salary, so they have to make it work. Don't be surprised if the Diamondbacks work hard to find a trade after he opts in.

Robbie Ray, Giants

Position: LHP
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 2 years, $50M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

Ray won the 2021 AL Cy Young but hasn't matched that output over the first three years of his $115-million contract. He's made just eight starts over the last two seasons after surgery to repair a torn elbow ligament and flexor tendon. Seattle traded Ray to the Giants in the middle of his rehab, and he had a couple of good starts in August before a hamstring strain ended his brief season.

Should he opt out? No. Ray may have earned the contract with his brilliant '21 campaign, but he'd never come close to a $50-million deal in free agency. He'll spend the next two seasons in a Giants uniform.

Hunter Renfroe, Royals

Position: RF
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 1 year, $7.5M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

Renfroe's statistics took quite a dive in Kansas City after joining the Royals last winter. His homer-heavy bat didn't seem like a good fit in spacious Kauffman Stadium, as he failed to reach 20 homers and slug above .400 for the first time in a 162-game season. Renfroe did record nine outfield assists thanks to his cannon of an arm in right field, but his overall defensive numbers weren't great.

Should he opt out? No. Renfroe's likely facing a pay cut if he leaves Kansas City, so he'll opt in and spend consecutive seasons with the same team for the first time since 2019.

Blake Snell, Giants

Position: LHP
Age: 32
What he'd give up: 1 year, $30M
Eligible for qualifying offer: No

2024 stats

A cool market for last year's NL Cy Young winner led to Snell signing a pillow deal with the Giants late in the spring. If he had made more than 20 starts, he might've found himself in the Cy Young conversation again. Snell's 12.5 K/9 rate and 2.43 FIP were career-best marks, and he lowered his BB/9 rate to 3.8 while also throwing his first career complete game, which happened to be a no-hitter.

Should he opt out? Yes. Snell's going to be one of the best free-agent pitchers available, and a megadeal is waiting for him. If he's scrambling in March again, something went horribly wrong.

Michael Wacha, Royals

Position: RHP
Age: 33
What he'd give up: 1 year, $16M
Eligible for qualifying offer: Yes

2024 stats

Last year, Wacha declined a three-year, $18.5-million player option with the Padres and won that bet by inking a $32-million deal in Kansas City. Now, after another solid season with the Royals, he has the chance to test the market again. Wacha was a solid No. 3 starter for the Royals, helping them return to the playoffs by finishing with a career-best 3.3 fWAR and 2.4 BB/9 rate. He also crossed the 160-inning mark for the third time.

Should he opt out? Yes. Wacha's now put together three straight very good seasons and will have a nice market as a dependable back-end rotation option with playoff experience. He should easily exceed his 2025 salary over the length of a multi-year deal.