F1 season betting preview: Is everyone already racing for 2nd?
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The 2024 Formula 1 season kicks off Saturday with the Bahrain Grand Prix, marking the first of 24 races on the calendar.
Last season was dominated by Red Bull's Max Verstappen, who won 19 of 22 grand prixs, and the betting market appears to believe this year will be much of the same.
Verstappen is a -700 favorite to defend his Drivers' Championship title, and Red Bull is -650 to win the Constructors' Championship. Those odds equate to implied probabilities of 87.5% and 86.7%, respectively.
However, those odds mean the betting market is giving anyone else from the 20-car lineup a 13.5% chance of stunning the F1 world.
Drivers' Championship odds
| Driver | Odds | Implied. Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -700 | 87.5% |
| Charles Leclerc | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Lando Norris | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Carlos Sainz | +3000 | 3.2% |
| George Russell | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Sergio Perez | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Fernando Alonso | +5500 | 1.8% |
| Oscar Piastri | +5500 | 1.8% |
Odds via theScore Bet. Drivers above at and above 400-1 are not listed.
To highlight how dominant Verstappen's season is expected to be, his total wins line is set at 15.5, with the over paying -190 (65.5% implied probability). Sergio Perez has the second-highest projected win total, which is set at 2.5, while the under is the -155 favorite.
Charles Leclerc has the best odds of surpassing Verstappen, but at +1100, it's unlikely. Lewis Hamilton, in his final season with Mercedes, is third at +1800.
If you're looking to bet into a market where a selection isn't eating up 87.5% of the win equity, betting on who'll finish highest in the Drivers' Championship without Verstappen is the market for you.
Drivers' Championship w/o Verstappen
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sergio Perez | +120 |
| Charles Leclerc | +250 |
| Lando Norris | +700 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1200 |
| George Russell | +1400 |
| Fernando Alonso | +3000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +6000 |
Odds via theScore Bet. Drivers above at and above 250-1 are not listed.
Verstappen's teammate, Perez, is the favorite to win this market, which makes sense since they're driving the same Red Bull car. There's very little chance Perez would outperform Verstappen for the entire length of the season, but he's more likely than most to come second.
But if - for whatever reason - Red Bull has an off year and isn't as dominant as usual, the door would be open for someone else to compete with Verstappen.
Perhaps McLaren can take another step forward and Lando Norris, or even Oscar Piastri, can push for the second spot.
Oddsmakers suggest a Ferrari car is most likely to claim the spot, though, as the team is second favorite to win the Constructors' Championship and Leclerc is +250 to win the Drivers' Championship without Verstappen.
Speaking of the constructors, here are the odds for Red Bull and those looking to dethrone the two-time defending champions.
Constructors' Championship odds
| Constructor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Red Bull Racing | -650 |
| Ferrari | +650 |
| McLaren | +1000 |
| Mercedes | +1000 |
| Aston Martin | +8000 |
| Alpine | +50000 |
| Visa Cash App RB | +50000 |
| Sauber | +75000 |
| Williams | +75000 |
| Haas | +100000 |