It's that time of year again.   Each voter's given a seemingly straightforward task when the Nati...

It's that time of year again. Each voter's given a seemingly straightforward task when the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot arrives each November: evaluate the list of candidates and select which players deserve to be enshrined.How voters determine who's worthy is anything but simple or uniform. The process is different from voter to voter.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>What I strive to do as a voter is be objective. I've set up a process that I continue to follow into my third year as a voter. That doesn't mean I get it 100% right, but what I believe gatekeepers ought to strive for is fairness and consistency.How to determine if a candidate belongs in this exclusive group? I begin again by respecting precedent to determine who ought to be in the Hall.For each position, if a candidate isn't less than one standard deviation from the median in a number of performance measures at his respective primary position, I reason he likely belongs.As for those performance measures, it's a challenge to compare across eras, but stats like OPS+, ERA+, WAR, and WAR7 (a player's top seven seasons) help adjust for different eras and ballpark factors.I also equally weigh both a player's peak and overall career production. Hall precedent generally asserts that a player must have enjoyed a long career but also sustained an elite peak.There's nuance beyond that - awards, role in team success, and PED usage consideration - but that's the basis of how I arrive at decisions.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/cropped_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w220xh124_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w320xh180_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w640xh360_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w768xh432_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/602381/w1080xh607_GettyImages-830032462.jpg?ts=1734554929 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Hall of Fame voters are typically categorized as belonging to one of two camps: small or large Hall voters.In my third year as a voter, I suppose I'm considered a large Hall-er. After all, one can only vote for up to 10 players and I've voted for 10 on each prior occasion. But I'm simply attempting to be a right-sized Hall voter with my process.Of 17,610 major-league players to debut between 1871 and 1999, only 1.56% - 274 players - have reached Cooperstown.Consider that every player to step on a major-league field could be seated in Fenway Park and there'd still be more than 10,000 empty seats. Then consider that everyone inducted into the Hall could fit into a dozen rows of one section.The idea the Hall's been watered down simply isn't true. In fact, it's become too exclusive for modern players.Players who debuted in the 1890s, 1920s, and 1950s were inducted at rates well over 2%. But acceptance rates are well below 2% for those to debut in the 1970s and 1980s, and below 1% for players from the 1990s. The logjam isn't going away any time soon as players from the 21st century begin to appear on ballots.All that said, let's get into my ballot.<h3>The holdovers</h3>This year's vote was made a little easier as three players received the necessary 75% share of votes to join the Hall’s 2025 class: Adrian Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. Their selections relieved a bit of the ballot crowding.Another player I voted for, Gary Sheffield, didn't reach 75% in his 10th and final year of ballot eligibility. His case is now left to future committees.That means there are four open slots on my ballot. The six returning to my ballot are:<ul>
<li>Bobby Abreu (appeared on 14.8% of 2024 ballots, in his sixth year of eligibility)</li>
<li>Andruw Jones (61.6%, eighth year)</li>
<li>Manny Ramirez (32.5%, ninth year)</li>
<li>Alex Rodriguez (34.8%, fourth year)</li>
<li>Chase Utley (28.8%, second year)</li>
<li>Billy Wagner (73.8%, 10th and final year)</li>
</ul>Abreu's perhaps my most controversial selection, and my defense of his candidacy can be <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2800615" href="https://thescore.com/news/2800615">read here</a>.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/cropped_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w220xh124_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w320xh180_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w640xh360_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w768xh432_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/45093/w1080xh607_USPW_203029.jpg?ts=1734554631 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Kim Klement / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yes, I selected some players whose legacies are tarnished by PED use. While there's a debate over whether players who tested positive for steroids belong in the Hall, there's a rule governing their eligibility: if they failed three PED tests, they're ineligible. If they didn't, they're eligible. Given that rule, I can't dismiss them outright.But cheating shouldn't be incentivized. It shouldn't go on without penalty. As imperfect as my solution may be, I discount performance of proven PED users by shaving 10% off their value in my accounting. My reasoning: this should remove fringe candidates who benefited from PEDs, but not elite players. Manny and ARod clear the thresholds.So, as for those four open slots ...<h3>From last out to over the line</h3>Carlos BeltránBeltrán's not new to the ballot (57.1%, 3rd year) but is new to mine.My process deemed him worthy last year, but he was left out in a numbers game. Being a big part of the Astros' sign-stealing scandal doesn't help, but there's no precedent for banning sign-stealers - even blatant ones.He was an excellent five-tool performer with a deserving Hall of Fame resume. Beltrán finished his career just a tick below the average Hall marks in WAR and WAR7 for center fielders.He ranks eighth in total WAR and 11th in WAR7 among all center fielders in baseball history.<h3>The newcomers</h3>Ichiro SuzukiIchiro falls short in terms of career WAR (60) compared to the Hall's average for right fielders (73), while just outpacing the WAR7 average (43.7 to 43.2).Of course, there's a big caveat here: Ichiro didn't arrive to the majors until his age-27 season, immediately winning 2001 AL MVP and Rookie of the Year honors in one of baseball history's most remarkable campaigns.He erased any doubt about the ability of a Japanese star hitter performing in the majors as a rookie when he paced baseball with 242 hits and the AL with a .350 batting mark.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/cropped_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w220xh124_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w320xh180_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w640xh360_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w768xh432_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/618343/w1080xh607_GettyImages-52249797.jpg?ts=1709143068 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The trailblazer didn't slow down until much later in his career.Suzuki warrants consideration alone for helping pave the way for other NPB hitters, but his play is also deserving, from advanced to traditional numbers.He reached the traditional Hall benchmark of 3,000 hits (3,089), and produced 4,367 hits over 28 professional seasons when you combine those MLB hits with his work in Japan, making him the combined NPB/MLB all-time hit king.He was also a great baserunner and possessed one of the greatest right-field arms of all time. He's a lock as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.CC SabathiaPitchers are trickier cases than position players in the modern era.Because the nature of the position has changed so much - namely that far fewer innings are tossed by starting pitchers in recent years - it's more difficult for pitchers to not only reach traditional benchmarks like 300 wins but to accumulate WAR.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/cropped_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w220xh124_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w320xh180_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w640xh360_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w768xh432_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/362989/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1155001231.jpg?ts=1734554362 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>I attempt to adjust for the challenges the modern pitching candidate faces by employing measures that don't rely as much on career volume: WAR7, ERA+, and S-JAWS (Jay Jaffe's adjusted pitching measure), which attempts to adjust for the heavy workload of pitchers in baseball's early years.It's still a high bar for the modern pitcher to clear, and only one starter did so for me on this ballot: Sabathia.Sabathia ranks within one standard deviation of the median Hall starting pitcher in all three aforementioned categories, and within a half standard deviation in terms of WAR7.He's also within one standard deviation in total WAR, marking impressive and rare accumulation. He had excellent stamina, command, and a swing-and-miss slider.Sabathia enjoys exceptional counting numbers. Only Justin Verlander won more games this century than Sabathia's 251, and only Verlander and Max Scherzer have more strikeouts than Sabathia's 3,093.But CC wasn't just an elite stats compiler.Sabathia won a Cy Young Award and had four other top-five finishes. He was part of the Yankees' last World Series winner in 2009, which he helped deliver in his first year with the club. He led the majors with 19 wins and was named the ALCS MVP that October. He was 10-7 in his postseason career.Only one other new starting pitcher on the ballot warrants further consideration: Félix Hernández. He didn't make the cut for me this year, but he's the only starter on this ballot other than Sabathia to rank within a standard deviation of the Hall average in WAR7, S-JAWS, and ERA+, though his marks trail Sabathia overall in those categories.King Félix's peak was brilliant but lacks the longevity numbers, though I do plan to revisit his case. Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle return to the ballot, but I don't rate them quite as highly as Sabathia and Hernández.Dustin Pedroia Pedroia just clears the bar, but he's still Hall of Fame material.He finished his career within one standard deviation of the Hall average for second basemen in total production (WAR), peak (WAR7), and OPS+.That alone gets him most of the way home in my process, but his resume doesn't stop there.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/cropped_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w220xh124_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w320xh180_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w640xh360_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w768xh432_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/438746/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1143046007.jpg?ts=1734554050 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Boston Herald / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He won MVP and Rookie of the Year awards. He was a three-time Gold Glove winner and finished top 10 in MVP voting three times.Pedroia led the AL in hits once, runs twice, and was a Red Sox stalwart for a team that reached the playoffs six times with him as a lineup cornerstone, and which won the 2007 and 2013 World Series.Listed at 5-9 and 170 pounds, he's one of the smallest players in the modern era to reach the Hall, a testament to his work ethic and grit.He's similar to Craig Biggio in terms of peak and OPS+. He played better defense than Biggio but had a shorter career. Pedroia also just beat out a couple of Hall-worthy players by my accounting: David Wright and Matt Holliday.Pedroia's WAR and WAR7 are slightly superior relative to his position, and he also produced more career WAR and had a superior peak to Holliday and Wright.And in such close debates, it helps Pedroia that he owns a World Series ring and MVP award. That matters when considering fame and historical baseball relevance.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Sawchik's 2025 ballot" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-ipSWr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ipSWr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="563" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Once again, there are more deserving players than eligible spots. Hopefully more players are elected to alleviate the voting pressure building as 21st-century players arrive on the ballot. We shouldn't want another underrepresented generation of ballplayers.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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The baseball world believes it's unlikely Vladimir Guerrero Jr. forgoes free agency next winter by signing an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.Although Toronto still hopes to sign its star first baseman, as The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported this week, it seems unlikely the parties will find common ground with Guerrero so close to the open market. He'll be the most sought-after free agent after next season and only 26 years old.Guerrero reportedly already rejected a $340-million extension earlier this winter, and his price tag only increased after Juan Soto signed a record $765-million deal earlier this month.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Not helping Toronto's negotiating position is the fact everyone knows the club made lucrative offers to Soto and Shohei Ohtani over the last two offseasons.With Soto's deal resetting the market for young free agents, the Jays and ownership (Rogers Communications) may have to spend half a billion dollars to keep Guerrero long term.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/cropped_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w220xh124_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w320xh180_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w640xh360_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w768xh432_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>It leaves team management with a difficult set of choices: pony up the big bucks, face the loss of its franchise cornerstone after this season, or trade him during the year if Toronto falls out of contention.The lesson in Guerrero's case is the cost of waiting.Yes, there's a cost to a club if it makes a big bet on a young player in the early years of his career before he establishes a track record.But there's also the price of indecision. The closer a young star inches toward free agency, the more expensive his contract extension demands become. The decision to wait may also leave the player feeling he's not valued enough to remain.The Blue Jays should have made an offer to Guerrero much earlier in his career that he would have had difficulty refusing.However, to be fair to the club, rival front-office officials tell theScore it's become more difficult to lock up young players to extensions. Moreover, Guerrero didn't always make it easy to want to bet on him.After his breakout 2021 campaign that saw him finish second in MVP voting behind Ohtani - a season fueled in part by playing in hitter-friendly, temporary home ballparks in Dunedin and Buffalo - he followed with two consecutive years of decline.He batted only .264 with a 118 wRC+ in 2023. There were questions about how he'd age, especially before he dedicated himself to a new training regimen last winter.And with a defensive profile likely limiting him to first base or DH, he'd have to hit - really hit - to justify a contract well into nine figures.One can understand how ownership might have balked at the prospect of a lengthy deal following two years of decline. But teams must take risks and accept uncertainty at some point to pursue upside for their club.If the Blue Jays weren't going buy low (or lower) on Guerrero at an earlier and more uncertain point in his career, who would they bet on?Remember, he was an incredibly rare prospect who received top-scale 80 grades for his hit and power tools from Baseball America, making him their No. 1 overall prospect. Those skill assessments were backed up by tremendous minor-league production. The bloodlines are also pristine, as his father's a Hall of Famer. Toronto made a huge push to sign him in 2015 as a 16-year-old international free agent.The cost of waiting also hurts Guerrero's value to the team as a trade chip because of the dwindling amount of club control left. Should the Jays fall out of contention by next year's trade deadline, Guerrero on a long-term extension may have had a lot of trade value should the team enter a rebuilding period, which is a very real possibility.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/cropped_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742886/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168644448.jpg?ts=1734721494 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Teams must act early with star talent. The Angels signed Mike Trout to a six-year, $144-million deal in 2014 after his second year in the majors, buying out two years of his free agency. Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $288-million deal prior to his 2024 breakout season with Kansas City.Witt's an interesting comparison. While Trout performed magnificently in his first two full seasons, there were still some holes in Witt's game entering last year, namely a below-average on-base percentage.The Royals bet that the best prospect to come through their system in years was going to keep improving. And it's a bet that immediately paid off as Witt blossomed into an MVP-level performer and led them to a wild-card berth. Imagine Witt Jr. hitting the open market after 2027 had he not signed his extension. He might have exceeded Soto's contract guarantee.One can make the case the Blue Jays should have forced the issue with Guerrero earlier, perhaps before he even made a major-league plate appearance.There have been 14 pre-arbitration extensions awarded to players with fewer than 100 days of service time in MLB history, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/earliest-contract-extensions-in-mlb-history-c269677352">according to</a> MLB.com's Matt Kelly. Seven such deals were given to players with zero days in the big leagues.These deals aren't without risk. Evan White (Mariners), Scott Kingery (Phillies), and Jon Singleton (Astros) all signed lucrative deals that locked them up for at least five years before taking an MLB at-bat. Those deals didn't pan out for the respective clubs.But Guerrero was a much better prospect than any of those guys.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/cropped_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758679/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173416641.jpg?ts=1734721446 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sam Hodde / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>His pedigree was more like that of Jackson Chourio, who the Brewers locked up for eight years and $80 million guaranteed before he took a big-league rep. It looks like a great bet. Guerrero's potential was more like Corbin Carroll with the Diamondbacks, and Evan Longoria with the Rays, star prospects who signed extensions before accruing a year of service time.Risk is mitigated by signing players in their early to mid-20s when history says they'll continue to improve. A Guerrero today signed through, say, 2027 would at least have extended the Jays' window and enhanced his trade value.In these cases, the risk-reward balance is asymmetric. There's more upside to signing a younger player than there is possible downside. Even if the bet doesn't work out, it's at a much lower cost than having to make those risk calculations now.The downside with Guerrero was that he'd only be a somewhat above-average hitter, outside of severe injury. Even those decline years in 2022 and 2023 produced OPS+ marks of 133 and 116. He's likely to be much better than that.We don't know for sure what Blue Jays ownership was willing to offer over those early years, or what Guerrero would have accepted. What we do know: the cost of waiting is expensive. It'll cost the Jays either a massive guarantee or the loss of the franchise's face.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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What does a front office do when it is trying but unable, for whatever reason, to compete in free agency? Make a good, old-fashioned baseball trade, of course.That is what the Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, and Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to do Tuesday night, executing what became a three-way deal.First, the Blue Jays surprised the baseball world by acquiring 2023 Platinum Glove winner Andrés Giménez and a relief pitcher from the Guardians for promising left-handed hitting infielder Spencer Horwitz and a fringe outfield prospect.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/cropped_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w220xh124_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w320xh180_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w640xh360_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w768xh432_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758686/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2153718862.jpg?ts=1733948568 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mark Blinch / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Later in the night, the Guardians flipped Horwitz to Pittsburgh for starting pitcher Luis Ortiz and a pair of mid-tier pitching prospects.What's fascinating about this trade is the teams involved are trying to compete in 2025, and all of them dealt at least partially from strengths on their major-league rosters to address needs.As Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2520676/jerry-dipoto-is-the-high-volume-trader-who-put-seattle-back-in-the-playoffs">told</a> theScore in 2023, teams should trade more often because they all have different organizational strengths and needs.<ul><li>The Blue Jays have a surplus of young, tweener bats like Horwitz and a pile of cash that superstar free agents do not seem to want.</li></ul><ul><li>The Guardians just made a second baseman, Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in the draft last July, which complicated Giménez's future with the club. Coming out of college, Bazzana shouldn't be too far away.</li></ul><ul><li>The Pirates are a rare club in baseball with quality, pre-arbitration pitching depth already at the major-league level.</li></ul>All three teams have urgency and notable deficiencies. <ul><li>Toronto is in need of lineup upgrades after a poor season and entering the final year of salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.</li></ul><ul><li>The Guardians are seemingly unable to compete in the free-agent pitching market because of ownership constraints. Meanwhile, their MLB-ready pitching depth has thinned.</li></ul><ul><li>The Pirates have glaring lineup voids and only so much team control over young ace Paul Skenes, who just earned a full year of service time by winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.</li></ul>Mix it all together and we get Tuesday's deal. It's the kind of trade where there does not have to be clear winners and losers.The headliner is Giménez. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/cropped_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w220xh124_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w320xh180_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w640xh360_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w768xh432_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/569738/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1479510962.jpg?ts=1733948505 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Steph Chambers / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Blue Jays appear to be doubling down on GM Ross Atkins' run-prevention mantra, which has not gotten them where they want to be the last two seasons. But Giménez is not just a good defender, he's a great one. He was awarded the Platinum Glove in 2023, given to the game's best overall defender regardless of position. He's won the last three American League gold gloves at second base. Giménez leads baseball in defensive runs saved in that span (59).<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Play No. 9 of 2024: The stretch, the spin, the throw, the pick 🤯 An otherworldly sequence by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor in the ALCS! <a href="https://t.co/j9E1xTjj6p">pic.twitter.com/j9E1xTjj6p</a>— MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1866213590317105312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 9, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>The ban on infield shifts has elevated the defensive importance of second base, as range and arm strength become crucial.Since the new rules were put in place, he's <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&amp;ind=0&amp;rost=&amp;age=&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2024&amp;team=0&amp;stats=fld&amp;pos=2b&amp;type=1&amp;sortcol=12&amp;sortdir=default&amp;qual=800">produced</a> 43 DRS at second base, 40 more than the fifth-ranking second baseman, Bryson Stott. That's equivalent to four wins of value.Giménez is still just 26, and there is upside lurking. The big question is whether his bat can rebound to its 2022 level when he hit .297 with an .837 OPS and 140 wRC+ and finished sixth in MVP voting. If it does, the Blue Jays added a star at a discount.But his last two seasons have featured below-average offensive output. He's lost his power and his discipline has waned, though he's reduced his strikeout rate three years running. For his career, he's a 103 wRC+, or a league average hitter. But it's been a bumpy ride.There's reason to think he can improve, add more power, and clean up some swing decisions. But even with those two down seasons, from 2022-24 he produced 12.8 WAR, good for 26th among all position players.In some ways, the Giménez addition is similar to the Jays' addition of Matt Chapman in 2022 - another Platinum Glove winner with an uneven bat.By WAR, they are almost identical players over the last three years. Chapman just signed a six-year, $150-million contract with the Giants.While some believe the nearly $100 million left on Giménez's five-year deal is too rich for a glove-first player, his glove is so good that it fuels a 3-WAR Steamer projection.Giménez also gives the club versatility.He was a shortstop prospect and might be a Gold Glove-caliber defender there should the club eventually part with Bichette. An argument can be made to play Giménez over Bichette at shortstop this season.As for the Guardians, they seem unlikely to add a significant arm in free agency. The oft-injured Alex Cobb, a Guardian last season, just signed a one-year, $15-million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Matthew Boyd left on a relatively modest deal with the Cubs.Moreover, Cleveland's impressive run of pitching development has cooled, so to improve a thin rotation the club had to make a deal.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/cropped_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/760176/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173612339.jpg?ts=1733948472 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Joe Sargent / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Luis Ortiz is an interesting arm to invest in. The 25-year-old is above average when it comes to fastball velocity and arm-extension metrics, which are difficult skills to improve compared to, say, adding a cutter or breaking ball.The Guardians have a long history of developing and getting the most out of pitchers and believe they can do that with Ortiz, especially in improving his changeup. That could spike his weak strikeout rate.He is poised for a large workload for a team that relied heavily on its bullpen in the playoffs last season. He tossed 135 innings in 2024, ranking 15th among all pitchers 25 or younger.The two prospect arms in the trade, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy, rank in the lower end of the Pirates' top 20 prospects.As for Pittsburgh, Jays fans know how impressive Horwitz's plate approach was last year. The Pirates needed offensive help badly.While he is an older prospect with a limited ceiling because of a lack of elite power, Steamer projects him to be the Pirates' best hitter by wRC+ (119) this coming season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/cropped_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w220xh124_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w320xh180_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w640xh360_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w768xh432_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/744153/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2170104178.jpg?ts=1733948290 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Casey Sykes / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Pirates were 24th in runs scored last year and 27th in wRC+ from left-handed batters. Horwitz upgrades the lineup at a pre-arbitration salary.The Pirates also still have Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller in their rotation - though the risk here is that pitching depth is dangerous to trade away.Still, risks need to be taken to elevate a club.Only a handful of teams compete at the high end of free agency. But every front office can make a trade and deal from strength to try and improve.Those transactions make the hot-stove season a little more interesting, too.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29399037/related

3 hopeful teams pull off an old-fashioned baseball swap

"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG...

"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG took on a new meaning as the details of Soto's record 15-year, $765-million deal emerged Sunday night.There were few comparables for Juan Soto in free agency; rarely do players this good and this young become available. The last time star-level players entered the open market at age 26 was in the 2018-19 offseason when both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado did it.Soto's contract has far-reaching implications on the field. Off the field, it may impact future collective bargaining and widen the gulf between franchises that are willing and unwilling to spend.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><h3>A record deal, but is Soto worth it?</h3>Despite elevated expectations, the contract still beat public forecasts of term, total dollars, and amount deferred. Harper and Machado didn't sign that long ago, yet Soto surpassed the combined value of their deals.And unlike Shohei Ohtani's record deal, there's remarkably no deferred money here. Soto's deal is worth some $300 million more in present-day value than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted valuation ($460 million). That's a giant leap.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/cropped_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w220xh124_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w320xh180_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w640xh360_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w768xh432_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/759326/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg?ts=1733765697 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Quinn Harris / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Using Harper and Machado as comps while accounting for MLB revenue growth and adjusting for Soto's superior three-year performance to those two players, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3119449" href="https://thescore.com/news/3119449">we arrived</a> at a 13-year, $635.5-million valuation for Soto in November.We weren't far off on the annual average value - estimating $48.8 million versus the actual $51 million - but, like most public forecasts, we fell more than $100 million short.Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Soto's deal rivals the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers in 2001 entering his age-25 season.Rodriguez was the most valuable free agent of all time. He was three years younger than Barry Bonds was when Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign a then-record six-year, $44-million deal with the San Francisco Giants before the 1993 season.Rodriguez was coming off a 41-homer, 9.5-WAR season as a shortstop when he left the Seattle Mariners for a then-record 10-year, $252-million contract with the Rangers. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, A-Rod's pact is worth $445 million.Since he signed that contract, the average MLB player's salary has increased 120% while MLB revenues have increased 223%. If A-Rod's deal were signed today, based on the rate of player salary inflation, it would be worth $554 million over 10 years. Expanded to the 15-year term Soto got, A-Rod's deal would have been worth $832 million.Whether Soto is worth this contract is another question.While he's an extremely young and rare offensive talent, Soto isn't 2001 A-Rod, who averaged 7.8 WAR over the three seasons leading into his free agency. Soto averaged 6.2.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/cropped_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w220xh124_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w320xh180_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w640xh360_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w768xh432_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/493182/w1080xh607_GettyImages-51725767.jpg?ts=1733765799 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Vince Bucci / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Rodriguez also played on the left side of the infield. Soto is a poor defender who seems likely to spend much of this contract as a designated hitter.While an elite DH can be a difference-maker like David Ortiz was for the Boston Red Sox, Ortiz never earned more than $16 million in a season.A-Rod was worth his deal: He produced 424 homers and 72 WAR over the first 10 years following his signing. Will Soto be worth it? Time will tell. The aging curve can be less merciful to corner-position types.<h3>An emotional market </h3>MLB revenue growth since the Harper and Machado deals were signed doesn't explain this contract: League revenue rose 13.6% from 2018 to 2023, the last full year in which we have data.Soto enjoyed something of a perfect storm of desperate large-market clubs pushing Steve Cohen, the game's richest owner, to bid more and more.The Yankees' final offer was for $760 million. The Red Sox and Blue Jays were reportedly offering around $700 million. But no one was going to outdo Cohen. While data and analytics have made player evaluation more of a science this century, pursuing Soto carried an emotional element: It was a good old-fashioned bidding war.For some historical context, it took 14 years for Rodriguez's total value to be surpassed by Giancarlo Stanton's deal in 2015, but only one year for Soto to top Ohtani's contract. It could be years before the value of Soto's deal is surpassed.<h3>Gap grows below singular Cohen</h3>The contract immediately widens the gap between the haves and the have-nots (including those unwilling to spend). The news reignited conversation about baseball's uneven financial playing field.Consider that the Pittsburgh Pirates have spent less on their last 10 years of Opening Day payrolls combined ($731 million) than the Mets just guaranteed to a single ballplayer.MLB is a different world from the other major North American pro sports teams. There were only five serious contenders for Soto. If a young superstar was on the market in another sport, every team - at least every team with cap space - would be bidding.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/cropped_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w220xh124_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w320xh180_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w640xh360_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w768xh432_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/582710/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1733765607 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Could owners like Bob Nutting in Pittsburgh spend more? Certainly. But the divide between local revenue streams is enormous in MLB, even with significant sharing of revenues.As <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">we studied</a> in November, most owners want to operate with a healthy profit margin. While each team's revenue streams are different, most owners have a net gap of $150 million-$200 million between revenues coming in and dollars going out to player compensation (this does not include other operating expenses).Cohen is not most owners, though.Cohen was the only owner to spend more on player compensation and luxury-tax payments last season than his club took in during its last full year of Sportico-reported revenues. The extra luxury-tax tiers and penalties that were negotiated in the last collective bargaining agreement to slow him down don't seem to be deterring him.While more fan bases would like to have someone like Cohen writing checks, there simply are not that many billionaires - 759 in the U.S. - and fewer still who want to splash around in the professional sports pool.The Mets have a huge advantage in spending power over almost all other teams. Until measures in the CBA force owners to spend, the gulf might only widen.The deal also increases the gap in earning power between players. While MLB players enjoy unlimited earning potential in free agency, the open market is a land of riches reserved for the game's elite talents.MLB players have the lowest median and minimum salaries among the major North American pro sports leagues. Most players who step on an MLB playing field never accumulate enough service time to reach arbitration or free agency.<h3>As for the baseball games …</h3>The deal will have ripple effects through so many areas of the sport, especially on the field.Mets: They now have the makings of an elite lineup. They ranked seventh in wRC+ and ninth in position player WAR last season, and they're adding one of the game's top offensive forces to their batting order. The NL East, already arguably the toughest division in baseball, becomes even more talented.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/cropped_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w220xh124_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w320xh180_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w640xh360_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w768xh432_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751700/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2180090914.jpg?ts=1729880063 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yankees: In theory, the Yankees shouldn't have been outbid - they generated 63% more revenue than the Mets in the last full year of revenues Sportico published. The Yankees ranked first in 2023 revenues ($720 million), while the Mets ranked 10th ($441 million).Losing Soto is incredibly damaging for the Yankees in the short and medium term. The Yankees have an aging core and a weak farm system. They could have built around Soto as their foundational piece for a decade.Moreover, if the Yankees knew they were acquiring a rental player, they probably wouldn't have sent such a haul to the San Diego Padres in last winter's trade for Soto. That trade package included pitcher Michael King, who posted a 2.95 ERA over 170 innings with the Padres.Blue Jays: One must wonder what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were thinking Monday morning.The Blue Jays reportedly made offers in the $700-million range to Ohtani and Soto. They haven't been able to come to terms with Guerrero and Bichette on extensions, and both players are scheduled to be free agents next offseason.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/cropped_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w220xh124_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w320xh180_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w640xh360_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w768xh432_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/758484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2133948656.jpg?ts=1733765503 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>It gets tougher for clubs to complete contract extensions as players get closer to the open market. Extensions will be even more difficult following the Soto deal.The Blue Jays have a bottom-third farm system, their core players are on expiring deals, and they've fallen short on landing franchise-altering superstars. They could soon face a rebuilding period.Red Sox: On paper, Fenway Park was the best fit for Soto. It ranks behind only Coors Field in favorable ballpark factors for left-handed hitters, and left field in Fenway is an ideal place to hide Soto's glove. The Red Sox also boast one of the most talented young position-player groups in the game. Soto could have made Boston's lineup elite.However, Soto's decision to join the Mets is less damaging to the Red Sox than some other contenders. He's at least out of the division, and the Red Sox can spend elsewhere to address holes and strengthen a promising roster.Dodgers: They'll be OK, but Soto would have helped their dynasty ambitions. Their best position players are now all over the age of 30. Still, few are showing any signs of aging, and the Dodgers have a good chance of signing young Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, who was just posted.The biggest issue for the Dodgers is that Soto is back in the National League.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29376778/related

Juan for the money: The ripple effects of Soto's megadeal

Major League Baseball faces a structural challenge when it comes to marketing its stars that othe...

Major League Baseball faces a structural challenge when it comes to marketing its stars that other North American pro sports leagues don't face. The obstacle? It's more democratic when it comes to the distribution of playing time.A star NBA player can theoretically take every shot. NFL quarterbacks handle the football on virtually every offensive snap. The best NHL players get the lion's share of ice time.But in baseball, the best hitters have to wait their turn like everyone else. Ace pitchers are tied to operating in five-man rotations during the regular season. The best bullpen arms can't pitch every day.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Opportunity is spread more evenly, so the influence of star power is relatively limited.It is through that lens in which we can understand some of the appeal behind the so-called "golden at-bat." MLB commissioner Rob Manfred shared the idea when he appeared on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/manfreds-mlb-magic/id1762692129?i=1000673722835">"The Varsity" podcast with Puck's John Ourand</a> in October, and it was revisited this week by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5961016/2024/12/02/golden-at-bat-rule-mlb/">Jayson Stark of the Athletic</a>."There are a variety of (rule changes) that are being talked about," Manfred told Ourand. "One of them - there was a little buzz around it at an owners' meeting - was the idea of a golden at-bat."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/cropped_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w220xh124_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w320xh180_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w640xh360_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w768xh432_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/567103/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1475185573.jpg?ts=1733267088 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Megan Briggs / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Such a rule would allow a team to send any hitter to the plate at a key moment, even if it's not his turn.Stark reported that variations of the rule are being discussed, such as limiting a golden at-bat to trailing teams or later innings, and how many would be allowed.For now, it's just an idea. Time will tell if a consensus forms among decision-makers.Some will reason that if an NBA team can give the ball to its best scorer and create an isolation opportunity with the final seconds melting off the clock, why not try something like that in baseball?Now, I want to make it clear I am for MLB experimenting. I was <a data-in-app-uri="" href="">in favor</a> of the pitch clock. There was too much time being wasted by both pitchers and hitters, not only between pitches but often between plate appearances. The declining pace of play had become a problem. And there's evidence it was the right decision. Attendance improved in the two years after adding the clock following a nearly two-decade decline at the turnstiles.But MLB still needs to reach more fans and create new ones. The league ceded its place atop the North American sporting hierarchy to the NFL a long time ago, and the NBA's recent national TV deals dwarf baseball's. MLB should try different things.But it shouldn't try the golden at-bat.There are different kinds of rule changes. Some seek to address issues negatively impacting the sport, like the slowing pace of play in MLB. The NBA has had a shot clock since the 1950s, and college basketball finally added one in 1985. MLB enlarged the size of the bases two years ago as well.And then there are rule changes that fundamentally change the nature of the game. Those should only be considered in the case of an existential crisis. Baseball hit such a point in 1968 when, after years of offensive decline, it lowered the height of the mound by two inches for the 1969 season. A golden at-bat would radically change how the game is played, how pitchers work through lineups, and how teams construct their lineups to maximize their best bats. There would be fewer moments for the Bucky Dents of the world.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0tl7xW4Oxo0?si=R3juLsfhPeoA52dl&amp;start=60" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure>While there have been rule changes that dictate where or how players can perform on the field, from raising and lowering mounds to banning infield shifts, those are uniform changes that affect all teams equally, or nearly equally, and were not meant to change the fundamentals of the game. If anything, the shift ban and pitch clock were implemented to create a game more like the one that was played for most of its history.The golden at-bat would also increase the imbalance between large- and small-budget clubs.Juan Soto is likely to land a record deal in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars this winter. Imagine what he would earn in a world with a golden at-bat? That Soto can only bat once every nine plate appearances is one of the few parity-drivers in the game.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/cropped_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>A slippery slope is also created when legislation is added to the baseball rule book. What stops the golden at-bat from becoming multiple golden at-bats during the course of a game?Moreover, baseball is rooted in its historical numbers, more than any other sport. Milestones like 500 home runs in a career, or 60 in a season, are benchmarks. If Aaron Judge could bat an additional 150 times per season - and often with runners on base - we would enter a new era of trying to contextualize player performance against the game's history.We must also consider that no one was asking for this. Fans were not clamoring for such a change.Yes, MLB is ultimately an entertainment product. But if the sport wants to make real change, if it wants to attract new fans and bring back old ones, it must confront larger issues - like the financial gulf between the haves and have-nots - rather than resort to gimmicks.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29303687/related

Fool's gold: Baseball doesn't need the golden at-bat

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers si...

The Los Angeles Angels were the most aggressive club early this offseason prior to the Dodgers signing Blake Snell. Pretty wild stuff, right?It's early - very early! - but the Angels account for four of the 12 free-agent signings to date. They've also made several trades, most notably adding Jorge Soler.But, and I can't stress this enough, why?<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Why are the Angels the aggressors? They're coming off a 99-loss season. There are roster aging, injury-prone players like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Their farm system remains poor. Shouldn't they be focused on rebuilding, on overhauling their organization?The following is a conversation - with myself - about what the perplexing Angels are up to. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/cropped_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w220xh124_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w320xh180_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w640xh360_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w768xh432_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/626742/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2148021611.jpg?ts=1732658552 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Q: Did you have the Angels winning the offseason entering Tuesday?A: I didn't. But it's nice to see a team being aggressive right out of the gate. Some general managers, like Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos, believe the best opportunities exist early in the offseason, and it was the Braves who traded Soler to the Angels.MLB should welcome more teams trying to compete. But in the Angels' case, the early moves feel like adding empty calories in terms of putting a contender on the field.Q: Are the transactions an indicator of mounting frustration, especially after watching Shohei Ohtani move across town and win a ring? Are the Angels delusional?A: If we squint, there's a modest 2025 bull case for optimists in Orange County. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/cropped_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w220xh124_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w320xh180_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w640xh360_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w768xh432_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/587484/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1404266551.jpg?ts=1732658418 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For starters, the Houston Astros are still good but in decline from their MLB superpower status. The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are talented but flawed. The A's have no designs on contending, regardless of where they play.The West was the AL's weakest division in 2024 and it may be again in 2025.Los Angeles is also likely to benefit from regression to the mean. We typically hear regression and think "back to earth," but, in this case, because they were so poor on the field last year, they're due to move toward the MLB average.There's one public projection available at the moment (Steamer) and it forecasts that the Angels' returning players will enjoy the second-best WAR improvement compared to their 2024 totals. Good news!Of course, the projection includes 574 plate appearances and star-level performance from Trout, a workload level he hasn't reached since 2019.Hope is required. Mandatory, even. But if one could simulate the 2025 season a thousand times, the Angels would walk away with a few division titles - that's baseball. Significant external help would bolster their long-shot chances, of course.And maybe they know something we don't that explains these moves, something like being contenders for Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki.Q: What can we expect from their additions?A: Not much. They've raised their floor, but it's not enough. Four of their additions - Kevin Newman, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, and Soler - are projected to combine for 3.9 WAR, so that's a limited improvement. Newman and d'Arnaud should upgrade the bench, but only Soler profiles as a regular.While the investment in Hendricks is modest (one year, $2.5 million), he posted a 5.92 ERA last year and his skills are eroding over multiple seasons.I do like the Yusei Kikuchi signing - he's a quality mid-rotation arm for a hopeful contender. The problem: He's the Angels’ ace. Before his signing, only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies were projected to have weaker rotations. That's a major issue.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/cropped_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w220xh124_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w320xh180_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w640xh360_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w768xh432_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738487/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2162183192.jpg?ts=1732658481 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Cole Burston / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>His contract (three years, $63 million) is a bit of an overpay compared to FanGraphs' estimates (three years, $54 million), but given California's state taxes - and the state of the Angels - they must overpay for free-agent talent. Kikuchi could have trade value, too, assuming L.A. continues to struggle. The Toronto Blue Jays netted a solid return for him as a rental at this past summer's trade deadline.Q: It's easy to dunk on the Angels in recent years, but with so many teams seemingly not interested in competing, shouldn't we welcome and celebrate any effort by clubs?A: Yes. In theory. Unfortunately, it's not clear how serious this contention attempt is. Fan bases shouldn't want misguided efforts that delay a club's return to relevance.A serious win-through-spending effort would look more like what the Rangers did in the 2021-22 offseason. That's when they signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who were at the peak of their star-level powers, to massive free-agent deals. They were core players for Texas' 2023 World Series team a year later. The Dodgers added megastars in free agency in recent offseasons, too.But the Angels aren't courting Juan Soto and/or Corbin Burnes this offseason. They're engaged in half measures, at least to date.What they should be focused on, above all else, is building a healthier organization from top to bottom.They'd be better off in the long run by accumulating more prospects, as much draft capital, and as many bonus dollars as possible. But it's not clear ownership wants to accept a long-term plan.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/cropped_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w220xh124_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w320xh180_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w640xh360_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w768xh432_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748597/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1189659341.jpg?ts=1732658450 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For instance, the club would have been better off trading Ohtani in the summer of 2023 - or even earlier - instead of chasing unlikely playoff chances and allowing him to leave for nothing.The Angels haven't demonstrated a willingness to play the long game. At all. Q: So, you don't believe this shortcut is going to work?A: Nope, and the root issue is - again! - their homegrown base isn't strong enough, and it isn't going to get stronger any time soon.Consider their farm-system ranking by MLB Pipeline at the end of each season:<ul>
<li>2022: 30th</li>
<li>2023: 28th</li>
<li>2024: 29th</li>
</ul>Successful teams, even those with top payrolls like the Dodgers, have a strong draft-and-development system as their foundation.Q: So, what you're actually saying is: Free Mike Trout? A: It's a monumental baseball tragedy that one of the best players of this era has reached the postseason once, way back in 2014, when he compiled 15 plate appearances in an ALDS against the Royals.The sad reality: Trout will likely need to wear another uniform for the baseball world to see him on the postseason stage again. The Angels’ plan is unlikely to come together.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29214998/related

Talking it out: What the heck are the Angels up to?

Whenever a contending large-market team signs a major free agent, there are often concerns and co...

Whenever a contending large-market team signs a major free agent, there are often concerns and complaints about MLB's financial playing field. For many, it feels tilted at a 45-degree angle. Now, winning the hot-stove season often doesn't result in lifting the Commissioner's Trophy. Money spent doesn't guarantee success in modern baseball. That's mostly because, in a sport dependent upon large samples to determine performance level, expanded playoffs is like employing a random number generator to determine a champion.But this time may be different.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/cropped_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w220xh124_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w320xh180_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w640xh360_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w768xh432_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757515/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2172703065.jpg?ts=1732726099 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Brandon Sloter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Los Angeles Dodgers added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to their rotation Tuesday, agreeing to a five-year, $182-million deal. The nine-figure deal is the fifth issued by the club since the start of last season, matching the rest of MLB.The addition's shaking up baseball.The Dodgers are so overwhelmingly good in every facet of their organization, and so rich, that they may be building the first MLB dynasty of the 21st century.No team's won consecutive titles since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees' three-peat.Consider that the Dodgers are coming off a season in which they won the World Series without Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Shohei Ohtani being able to pitch in October. And without Snell, of course.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/cropped_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752994/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181603937.jpg?ts=1732726030 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Etienne Laurent / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They were champions despite using the second-most pitchers in baseball in the regular season due to a rash of injuries. The Dodgers won a title with one arm proverbially tied behind their back last season. They'll likely be healthier on the mound in 2025, and more talented, and they may not be done getting better.In addition to Snell, the club's a considered a favorite to sign Roki Sasaki, perhaps the most talented arm to ever come out of Japan, who's expected to be posted in December.The Dodgers are also among the teams bidding on free agent Juan Soto.They're pulling every lever.They've built an excellent player development system, scout well, and employ a smart front office. On top of all that, they have an ownership group <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">willing to spend</a> enormous local revenues enjoyed from residing in the No. 2 media market in the United States.And despite all the spending to date, there's plenty more in reserve.Subtract the Dodgers' actual 2024 payroll plus luxury-tax payments from their last full year of revenues estimated by Sportico and the math spits out: $308 million. And that $308-million surplus is equal to or greater than the total revenues of the 10 lowest-revenue clubs in the baseball, according to Sportico's estimates. Making matters worse for the rest of baseball, the Dodgers are engineering a new lever to pull, helping enable some of their spending: extreme amounts of deferred money.Snell's contract reportedly contains $60 million in deferrals, which means the Dodgers have now signed five players to contracts that include nearly a billion dollars - $962 million, to be exact - in deferred money, most notably with Ohtani ($680 million of his $700-million deal is deferred). <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/cropped_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/757549/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178102984.jpg?ts=1732726131 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Robert Gauthier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The strategy has a couple of significant advantages for the club.For starters, the loophole allows them to lower their luxury-tax figures and corresponding tax hits.Ohtani's 10-year, $700-million deal on paper, for instance, is calculated as a $46-million figure for 10 years for luxury-tax accounting purposes, as the deferral payments are discounted for inflation-adjusted value. (The Dodgers are perhaps inspiring a new generation of accountants.)The strategy also means they're paying stars less than their headline contract number.Not only will inflation likely eat away at the value of Ohtani's future earnings, but the Dodgers are only paying him $2 million per year through 2033, while setting aside $44 million in an escrow account each year beginning in 2026 to pay the deferrals. The expectation is the dollars in the escrow account will accrue enough interest to pay off the $68-million payments when they come due.The Dodgers, in other words, may end up only paying $460 million or thereabouts of Ohtani's actual $700 million. The magic of compounding interest will do the rest. They've created financial flexibility in addition to skirting the full brunt of luxury-tax payments through this deferral approach. Players agree to the deferrals ostensibly to join a superteam, and in Ohtani's case, to avoid California state tax when the majority of his payments come due.Everyone's happy in L.A., but that's not the case throughout much of the rest of the sport.The game seems increasingly unfair for many. There could be some pushback. The Dodgers may be pushing the limits on deferrals to such a degree that - combined with their on-field success - the next collective bargaining agreement cracks down on such payments.But the financial imbalance will remain, even if the accounting regarding deferrals changes in future labor agreements.The Dodgers enjoy $334 million in local cable payments per year through 2038 at a time when a number of clubs have lost their previous guaranteed regional sports network deals. While a large chunk of that cable TV sum is placed into revenue sharing - teams place 48% of their local revenues into a pool and split that pie evenly - that $334 million is greater than 15 clubs' total revenues, according to Sportico revenue estimates.The financial gap is already wide and it's growing.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/cropped_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w220xh124_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w320xh180_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w640xh360_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w768xh432_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/753161/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2181438596.jpg?ts=1732726204 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Robert Gauthier / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Fans and rival clubs wanting to see a more level financial playing field are likely going to be waiting years, at best, if not for eternity.The MLBPA doesn't want a salary cap, even if it would benefit most players by raising minimum and median salaries. Moreover, there's no mechanism forcing owners to spend more on payroll. (Owners did propose a salary floor in the last CBA but the MLBPA balked when owners demanded more restrictive measures limiting top payrolls.)The Dodgers are a perfect storm. They combine financial might and accounting creativity, along with having imported the best small-market practices post-"Moneyball" and a front office that's also embraced modern player development practices.Add it all up and the Dodgers could be this century's first dynasty.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29195122/related

The Dodgers are running away from the field - and toward a dynasty

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered aro...

One key subplot this winter transcends any specific player or team interest, instead centered around someone working behind the scenes - and occasionally in front of the cameras.Uber-agent Scott Boras represents eight of the consensus top 20 free agents, and five at the top of the list: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso.Rarely does one agent have so much influence.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Last offseason, he represented a collection of stars known as the "Boras Five" - Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. This year's crop is even more accomplished.How Boras advises his clients this offseason will determine which clubs win and lose in terms of roster improvement, and also whether he enjoys a personal bounce-back performance.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/cropped_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w220xh124_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w320xh180_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w640xh360_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w768xh432_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756616/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2182307418.jpg?ts=1732226522 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Newsday / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Boras isn't used to losing, but last winter represented one of the few Ls on his resume.At the start of the offseason, FanGraphs' crowdsourcing predictions forecast the "Boras Five" would sign for a combined $466 million. Those players' actual contracts totaled just $233 million guaranteed.That was a significant and rare miss for Boras, who'd been an outlier in terms of both signing clients to record deals in terms of total dollars and <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2233897">beating market expectations</a>.Macro-level factors, like the unraveling of the sport's cable TV ecosystem, were at play last winter. Local TV revenues account for about a quarter of team earnings, so that uncertainty likely played a role in reducing the amount spent by clubs, even in Ohtani mania. Spending on free agency last offseason ($2.96 billion), <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2024/level/mlb/sort/contract_value">was down</a> nearly a billion dollars from the previous year ($3.9 billion)."(Last offseason) 10 teams decided to lower their budgets from '23," Boras <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2873740" href="https://thescore.com/news/2873740">told theScore</a> in March when asked about his clients' contract shortfalls. "There was a billion dollars taken out of the free-agent market."What I've done with players like Carlos Correa - when the markets are not there, we got him a three-year guarantee for about $100 million (in 2022). He took a contract with optionality (a first-year opt-out)," Boras explained. "The very next market, they were spending, and there was more demand for his services. He ended up getting a contract for $200 million with a chance to make an additional $70 million. He converted a situation with optionality into something that more than doubled the value (of the 2022 deal)."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/cropped_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w220xh124_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w320xh180_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w640xh360_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w768xh432_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/459603/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1189431308.jpg?ts=1732143000 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mike Stobe / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Snell is pursuing a path similar to Correa's. He opted out of the deal he signed last March, when he was coming off winning the NL Cy Young Award, to test the waters again. (Snell and Boras turned down a $150-million offer from the Yankees last winter before settling for a shorter-term deal with the Giants.)Bellinger, on the other hand, elected to remain with the Cubs for 2025. Not everyone trusts there will be a market rebound, and Bellinger is coming off a so-so campaign.Perhaps the market conditions have improved. There's less uncertainty related to regional television deals, but many clubs have taken smaller payouts to stay with Diamond Sports Group now that it's exited bankruptcy. Others are striking out on their own in partnership with MLB.It'll be interesting to see if Boras' approach is any different. He's certainly not lowering his initial demands.Ken Rosenthal reported Boras is seeking a guarantee for Bregman north of $300 million, nearly double what FanGraphs expects ($162 million).But the big question remains how long Boras is willing to advise his clients to wait, especially after irking Montgomery last offseason and losing him as a client.Boras, historically, is comfortable playing the waiting game, and generally plays it well."People call me all the time and say, 'Man, your players aren't signed yet.' Well, it doesn't really matter what time dinner is when you're the steak," Boras said in 2013.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/cropped_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w220xh124_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w320xh180_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w640xh360_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w768xh432_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/756230/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2164302699.jpg?ts=1732142913 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mitchell Leff / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>During the 2018-19 offseason, Boras client Bryce Harper, along with Manny Machado, were the last two under-26 stars to hit the open market before Soto. Machado and Harper didn't sign until after spring training camps opened. They became the first free agents to sign $300-million deals.But they were steaks.When that approach falters, players are squeezed. The melting offseason clock favors clubs more and more as spring training camps open.Last winter, Montgomery was worth more than the one-year, $25-million deal with a $22.5-million option he signed with Arizona in late March. Public forecasts had him signing for more than $100 million. He blamed the late start to his preparation for his down campaign. After the worst year of his career, he exercised the option rather than hit free agency again.Montgomery later fired Boras <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/23/ex-red-sox-target-jordan-montgomery-says-boras-kind-of-butchered-his-free-agency/">and told the</a> Boston Herald he felt Boras "kind of butchered" his free agency.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/cropped_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/742310/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159447898.jpg?ts=1732142866 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rich Schultz / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There was a lot of squeezing in the market last offseason, in part because of Boras.The first 60 days of last offseason featured 44 free agent signings, well short of the previous 10-year average of 58.7. The guaranteed number of seasons awarded (97) was also below the 10-year average of 116 for the first two months of the offseason. And the market never warmed up.But will Boras change his approach? Will teams be more aggressive with large-revenue clubs like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, seemingly incentivized to improve their rosters? And how will things change if Soto signs early, as the industry expects? It'll be a fascinating offseason. Free-agent players as a whole need a rebound, and so, too, does the game's top agent.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29124533/related

Scott Boras controls this offseason

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was...

There was an immediate shift in sentiment among many Pittsburgh Pirates fans when Paul Skenes was named the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday.On social media, long-suffering fans pivoted from, "Cool, our player won an award!" to "Wait a second, we just lost a year of club control over our best pitcher!"Many Pirates fans likely learned Monday night about new incentives in the collective bargaining agreement designed to reduce service-time suppression - a practice long employed by the Pirates and other clubs.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The new provision allows for players who finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting to earn a full year of service time if they didn't already qualify. That matters because players need six full years of service to become free agents and typically three years to become eligible for arbitration.Skenes spent 142 days on the major-league roster, short of the 172 needed to qualify for a full year of service time. The award gives him the bump.Skenes now projects to enter the free-agent market after the 2029 season instead of after the 2030 campaign, as would have been the case under previous CBAs.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Skenes' timeline" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-bR9U0" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bR9U0/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="293" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/cropped_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w220xh124_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w320xh180_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w640xh360_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w768xh432_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/637485/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2160130335.jpg?ts=1732055948 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Todd Kirkland / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The intent of the new CBA provision is good: reduce service-time suppression, reward excellent young players, and incentivize clubs to promote top young talent to the majors sooner (more on that in a moment).But the new rule also adds a little more divide to the already huge gulf between large- and small-market clubs. For the first time in history, service time to reach free agency can be altered in the players' favor. Pittsburgh fans are already counting down the days remaining because they know Pirates management under owner Bob Nutting could trade Skenes before his club control expires, something the team did with Gerrit Cole following the 2017 season. Small-market baseball fans are well aware of the expiration date on star players' time with their clubs. There are no mechanisms forcing owners to spend to a salary floor, and dramatic differences in local revenues typically determine which teams spend on the open market.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>As for the club incentive in relation to the new CBA provision, it can be debated as to whether the Pirates mishandled the situation.If a player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three of MVP or Cy Young voting prior to reaching arbitration, a team can receive a draft pick awarded following the first round.The MLBPA wants promising young players to get to free agency sooner, and the union worked with MLB on creating a carrot to accomplish that.But the player must be ranked as a top-100 prospect by two of three rankings lists - Baseball America, ESPN, or MLB Pipeline - and have been on the MLB roster for at least 172 days during their rookie season to qualify.Because Skenes didn't debut until early May, the Pirates didn't qualify for that reward. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles earned the bonus in 2023 when Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson won their respective league's Rookie of the Year award.On a pure talent basis, there was no reason for Skenes not to be on the Opening Day roster. He was perhaps the Pirates' best pitching option the day he signed in 2023 after being the first overall pick out of LSU, and Pittsburgh's starting staff was thin this past spring.But it's tricky with young pitchers. Position-player prospects aren't subject to the same workload and injury concerns of the modern game as young pitchers. That makes it easier for clubs to have confidence in adding them to early-season rosters, like with Carroll and Henderson.The Pirates wanted to manage Skenes' innings workload in 2024, and Skenes said he benefited from spending 27 innings in Triple-A early this season. Whether they could have managed his workload at the major-league level can be debated.If the Pirates had been mostly focused on trying to limit his service time, they would have promoted him later in the season after <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/super-two">Super Two eligibility</a> had passed. Skenes' 142 days in the majors in 2024 would have made him Super Two eligible regardless of Rookie of the Year results.One rival executive said there "would be pressure" with his club to make sure a likely ROY candidate who was a top prospect, like Skenes, would be eligible for the compensation draft pick.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/cropped_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w220xh124_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w320xh180_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w640xh360_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w768xh432_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/738918/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2159130001.jpg?ts=1732057945 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Whatever the case, the delayed debut cost the Pirates a draft pick.The Skenes situation raises this question: Could teams delay the arrival of young arms to ensure they're ready for a full workload once they're added to an Opening Day roster so the club can ensure it qualifies for draft-pick compensation? Or are young arms so fragile in the modern era that teams wouldn't want to risk wasting pitches in the minors if the arm is MLB-ready, even on an innings limit? It will be worth monitoring whether clubs change their behavior.As Pirates fans digested all this Monday night, as the looming threat of losing Skenes accelerated by a year, some wondered why the CBA contained a service-time bonus that's decided by a sportswriters' vote.The decision was collectively bargained between players and owners in 2022. An alternative idea of relying on WAR measurements to determine qualifying status was discussed, but the Rookie of the Year vote was ultimately decided as the arbiter.Monday's award voting is ultimately a big win for Skenes and young stars like him, a victory for the MLBPA, and the cause of mixed feelings for some Pittsburgh fans.Keeping Skenes in Pittsburgh long term would require a different owner or a much different CBA. Neither one of those scenarios is likely. The big takeaway? Enjoy Skenes while you can, Pittsburgh.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29104867/related

Skenes' rookie award traps Pirates in uncomfortable situation

Last week, we ranked where Juan Soto fits best. Soto is in a class by himself this offseason, but...

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/29005426/related

Where do baseball's other free agents fit best?

Ross Atkins revealed something interesting about his club's internal expectations for next season...

Ross Atkins revealed something interesting about his club's internal expectations for next season at the GM meetings in San Antonio this week.The Blue Jays GM said the club's internal projections show an additional 10 wins next season from players they have under club control. Those wins wouldn't cost them a single additional dollar."If you just looked at our projections and the performance of players and did the math on that, you could make the case that we have 10 wins within our roster right now to close (the gap) if we deploy them appropriately and put them in the best positions to be successful," Atkins said, as reported by <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/how-the-blue-jays-are-trying-to-close-their-post-season-gap-this-off-season/">Sportsnet's Shi Davidi</a>. Atkins said that meant paying attention to "when they're playing and how they're playing and who they're playing against."<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Ten extra wins would've vaulted the Jays from last to third place in the AL East last season and put them two games behind the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers for the final wild-card berths.Ten extra wins alone wouldn't guarantee a playoff berth in 2025, but it'd reduce how much external improvement is needed.External improvement is expensive, whether in the form of free-agent contracts or prospects traded. One win above replacement on the free-agent market generally costs teams about $9 million.So, do 10 additional wins represent wishful thinking, or a comforting reality?One way to test Atkins' claim is through public forecasts. While they'll differ in varying degrees from a team's private evaluation metrics, some MLB front office staffers note the public forecasts aren't that different from the models teams create.One set of public forecasts available to us now is the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;type=steamer&amp;lg=&amp;team=14">Steamer projections at FanGraphs</a>.The difference between the Jays' 2024 fWAR totals and the Steamer projection is 9.7 wins. That ranks as the sixth-best projected improvement in MLB. <figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Steamer projections" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-5ZzbT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5ZzbT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="751" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The player holding the most hidden wins is Bo Bichette.Bichette is coming off a dreadful, injury-plagued season and is entering his final year before free agency. He should be motivated to perform well in 2025, and his history of excellent performance suggests there'll be a bounce back.After a 0.3-fWAR season, Steamer is projecting Bichette for 3.4 WAR. Catcher Alejandro Kirk is projected for 3.9 WAR, a one-win improvement. The projection system forecasts improvement from young players such as Will Wagner (1.9 WAR in 341 plate appearances) and Spencer Horwitz (2.0 WAR in 552 plate appearances). Other younger players such as Joey Loperfido and Jonatan Clase hold breakout potential, too.On the pitching side, Steamer forecasts include growth from José Berríos (plus-1.0 WAR), Jordan Romano (plus-0.7 WAR), Bowden Francis (plus-0.6 WAR), and Yariel Rodríguez (plus-0.5 WAR).<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/cropped_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w220xh124_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w320xh180_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w640xh360_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w768xh432_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/743079/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2169358753.jpg?ts=1731096707 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Blue Jays need bullpen help. Perhaps they can find a gem or two in late-season waiver pickups such as Dillon Tate, Nick Robertson, and Michael Peterson.Combine bounce-back performances with growth from younger, intriguing players, and the Jays are correct to believe they can make significant gains next season.Player development breakthroughs could also bring additional improvement. Toronto ranks 14th in the majors in hitting balls in the air to the pull side, the batted-ball profile most conducive to home runs and power.Don Mattingly, the team's offensive strategist last season, <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2913372" href="https://thescore.com/news/2913372">was indifferent</a> to implementing hitting programs to develop this. He believed hitters will develop such approaches over time if it suits them.Mattingly will return to the bench coach role in 2025, and the Blue Jays brought in new hitting coach David Popkins, who was with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins - teams that emphasize getting the ball in the air. Such skill changes are aided and accelerated by the modern feedback loop of tech and data in training.The Blue Jays could get more production out of players like Bichette if they began to better tap into pull-side power.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/cropped_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w220xh124_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w320xh180_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w640xh360_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w768xh432_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/748053/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2173456870.jpg?ts=1731096667 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Sam Hodde / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>There are error bars inherent with any forecast. But while the Jays' existing players could fall short of a 10-win improvement, they could also exceed it because of unforeseen developments.Forecasted improvements are no guarantees, of course. Even Atkins acknowledges a 10-win improvement alone won't be enough to contend for the division title, let alone a playoff berth."We have to look to add to that group year over year," he said. "Going from good to great is when both things happen."While signing Juan Soto might be a long shot, adding another quality starting pitcher could turn the rotation into a strength again.Adding a position player who can impact the game with his glove and bat like Alex Bregman would deepen the club's lineup and avoid having to make so many bat-or-glove tradeoffs.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/28964700/related

The Blue Jays say the current roster has 10 more hidden wins. Does it?

Juan Soto, the premier free agent on the market this season, wants Shohei Ohtani money - and he d...

Juan Soto, the premier free agent on the market this season, <a href="https://cmsadmin.thescore.com/admin/newsroom#/articles/3119449">wants Shohei Ohtani money</a> - and he doesn't want it to be deferred. No team has ever handed out anything close to that deal, even adjusting for inflation.Yes, Ohtani signed a $700-million deal with the Dodgers last winter, a record in terms of guaranteed pay.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>But because the deal was so heavily deferred, inflation will eat away at the eventual value. Ohtani is making a relative pittance, $2 million a year through 2033, then he'll receive $68 million in annual payments after that.The inflation-adjusted value of the deal is worth $438 million over 10 years, according to the MLB Players' Association.In other words, Soto's initial demands far exceed the present value of what Ohtani received.Do Soto's on-field performance and youth - he just turned 26 - make him worth such a deal? Or is it just posturing by his camp early in the negotiation process? Soto is represented by super agent Scott Boras, <a data-in-app-uri="" href="">whose record of accomplishment</a> is unmatched with star-level players.Based on recent comparative deals combined with market inflation, can we figure out what he's actually worth? One issue in assessing Soto's value is he doesn't have many comps.A player this young and this good rarely comes available in free agency. Aaron Judge's first full season in the majors was his age-25 campaign, the most common debut age for MLB players.The last time a star player entering his age-26 season was available in free agency was in the 2018-19 offseason when there were two: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/cropped_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750029/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177971761.jpg?ts=1730836175 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Luke Hales / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Let's examine their production and their contracts.Harper averaged 3.1 fWAR over the three seasons leading into his free agency. It wasn't until March that he signed a 13-year, $330-million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies that included no opt-outs. It remains the third-biggest free-agent deal in history. Including players who signed extensions with their teams, it's <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts">ranked eighth</a>.Based upon his three-year performance leading into free agency, his deal was worth $8.2 million per win above replacement, assuming he'd continue to meet his prior production level.Machado was more productive entering that offseason.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/cropped_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w220xh124_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w320xh180_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w640xh360_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w768xh432_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747917/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2172197197.jpg?ts=1730836214 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>He averaged 4.86 fWAR over the previous three seasons. He signed a 10-year, $300-million deal in February, beating Harper to become the first $300-million free agent in history. The deal was worth $6.2 million per win above replacement.Soto was a better performer than either during the last three years, averaging 5.93 fWAR.And he's improved his performance in back-to-back seasons, while Machado and Harper were more uneven.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Market value" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-WPQ51" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WPQ51/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="302" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Just on performance alone, Soto should attract the most dollars. But we also must consider the increase in MLB revenues and player salaries since Harper and Machado signed, with <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/193466/total-league-revenue-of-the-mlb-since-2005/">increases</a> <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/">by about</a> 15% and 14%, respectively.If one averages the dollar-per-WAR valuations of the Machado and Harper deals and then adds a 15% inflation bump, the result is a $48.88-million average annual value for Soto's contract.Apply that average over a 13-year term, and it yields a total of $635.5 million. So, perhaps Soto's demand for $700 million isn't that far off.This week, FanGraphs released its <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/">top 50 free agents</a>, which includes a crowdsourcing prediction of what Soto will earn. That crowd's median forecast for Soto: 13 years and $585 million. A bit lighter than my estimate, but still a record in terms of adjusted dollars.Either figure blows away the overall No. 2-ranked free-agent contract (Judge’s $360-million deal). And when adjusting for inflation, Soto might easily exceed Ohtani in purchasing power.Maybe he'll top him in raw dollars, too. After all, Soto should have the Mets and Yankees bidding against each other.With <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3114012" href="https://thescore.com/news/3114012">so many</a> large-market clubs interested in Soto, he could perhaps push toward $700 million in non-deferred income. It's a massive salary demand, but it might not be far off from his true value based on recent history and growing revenues.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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An assessment of Juan Soto's true market value

It was just a year ago that the most sought-after free agent in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani, hit t...

It was just a year ago that the most sought-after free agent in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani, hit the open market, but another unicorn will be available when free agency begins Monday.Juan Soto is nine days younger than Bryce Harper was when the Phillies star entered free agency following his age-25 season in 2018.Harper was one of the most sought-after free agents in history due to his rare left-handed bat and relative youth. Similarly, Soto is about as young as a star player can be entering free agency. Only Alex Rodriguez, entering his age-25 season in 2001, was younger in entering the open market this century.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>And in terms of production, only Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Andruw Jones <a href="https://stathead.com/tiny/t3Bh7">produced more bWAR</a> through their age-25 campaigns than Soto over the last 30 years.Soto enjoys perfect market conditions this offseason. Many large-market clubs need his services, and none could probably use him more than the top-revenue team in the sport.His decision will come down to two questions. Which teams are willing to meet a price tag exceeding $600 million? (Jon Heyman <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/10/31/sports/juan-soto-eyeing-a-historic-700-million-mlb-free-agency-contract/">reports</a> the Scott Boras client is seeking a $700-million deal, without deferrals, which would exceed Ohtani's record contract regarding real earnings power.) And among the teams that can realistically sign Soto, which need him the most to boost their playoff and World Series chances?<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/cropped_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w220xh124_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w320xh180_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w640xh360_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w768xh432_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/752848/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2168096081.jpg?ts=1730489406 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The following rankings attempt to balance need and plausibility in assessing where Soto might best fit:<h3>No. 8: Blue Jays</h3>Soto in Canada is likely a pipe dream. But after the Ohtani tease last winter, the fan base would welcome the sight of Soto stepping off a private jet at Pearson International Airport.Blue Jays ownership was willing to come close to the dollar figure Ohtani reached with the Dodgers last winter. What that means is a bit unclear, as the inflation-adjusted dollar value of Ohtani's heavily deferred deal is far less than the $700-milllion guaranteed figure.According to our analysis of <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">payroll spending versus revenue</a>, the Blue Jays are also one of the more generous teams<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">,</a> so how much flexibility they have isn't clear. Rogers Communications, which owns the Jays, is also completing <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3077868" href="https://thescore.com/news/3077868">a deal to buy out</a> telecommunications rival Bell's shares of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the parent of Toronto's other major professional franchises.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/cropped_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/739354/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149272872.jpg?ts=1725048666 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>But the Blue Jays are another large-market team that should be highly motivated to improve, at least in the near term.The coming season is the final year the club has salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The Jays also have a quality rotation under contract, but it's a group that's not getting any younger.Moreover, their pivot to trading bats for gloves over the last two offseasons hasn't worked, and they need more left-handed thump in their lineup. Toronto's 94 wRC+ from left-handed hitters ranked 23rd in the majors in 2024, and the club finished 20th in left-handed plate appearances.Of course, it's also possible the Blue Jays are thinking more about a rebuild, making them less likely to commit to a long-term megadeal. But if any player could help the club make a big jump in the coming years, it's Soto.<h3>No. 7: Nationals</h3>A homecoming for Soto ought to be considered plausible as well as compelling.While the Nationals aren't believed to be immediate contenders, adding Soto to a young core that includes James Wood, C.J. Abrams, and Dylan Crews could create a long-term dynamic lineup.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/cropped_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631971/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155591840.jpg?ts=1730489501 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> New York Yankees / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Nationals have the lowest player payroll among all the Soto contenders considered here, meaning they can afford him.They also have a history of working with Boras on megadeals for players such as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.While Soto would likely prefer to win right away, the final dollar figure will determine the winner for services.<h3>No. 6: Dodgers</h3>Could the rich become even richer?The World Series champions have been linked to interest in Soto, which would seem unfair to the rest of the sport.The Dodgers have less urgency to sign another superstar. Still, adding Soto to a lineup led by Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman could set them up for a run of multiple World Series titles, which no team has accomplished since the 1998-2000 Yankees.It's unclear how willing the Dodgers would be to further stretch their luxury-tax bill. But they have so many deferred dollars in contracts issued to star players that they could afford to sign Soto and become an overwhelming dynamo of a team.<h3>No. 5: Cubs </h3>Behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Cubs are the third-ranked team in terms of surplus dollars enjoyed by ownership when subtracting total player costs from revenue.Even with Cody Bellinger exercising his 2025 player option, the Cubs could use another elite bat. The Cubs slugged just .396 from the left side of the plate last season. And even with Bellinger returning, there's still plenty of reason to pursue Soto.Adding such a star to a Central Division team could swing playoff probabilities more than any other landing spot. The Cubs' largest contract in club history is the $184-million guarantee to Jason Heyward in 2015, who was then a young, left-handed-hitting free agent entering his age-26 season.<h3>No. 4: Red Sox </h3>Red Sox Nation is frustrated with ownership, and for good reason. According to our analysis of revenues minus total team payroll, only the Yankees ($344 million) have a greater surplus of dollars than the $328 million by the Red Sox.Boston projects, at the moment, to have just the 16th-ranked Opening Day payroll, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total2/dir/desc">according to Spotrac</a>.Stars are needed not just to contend but to excel in October. The Red Sox know this well, as the Mookie Betts trade continues to haunt them.Boston is reportedly going to "check in" on Soto, per Heyman, but it ought to be serious about courting him. Soto would transform a good lineup (11th in wRC+ at 104) with fixtures like Rafael Devers and Jaren Duran and an emerging star in Wilyer Abreu into an elite one.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/cropped_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w220xh124_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w320xh180_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w640xh360_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w768xh432_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/740915/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1709874903.jpg?ts=1730489568 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Winslow Townson / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Also, only Coors Field has ranked as a better park for left-handed hitters than Fenway over the last three seasons. Soto loves to use the entire field, making Fenway a great fit.One other plus? For MLB, Soto in Boston would re-ignite the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.<h3>No. 3 Giants </h3>The dream for the Giants is to have Soto smashing balls into McCovey Cove for the next decade.The Giants have aggressively bid for top-of-the-market stars in recent seasons but keep coming up short. For instance, just two offseasons ago, the Giants offered Aaron Judge $360 million, but the Yankees matched it, and Judge elected to remain in New York.The Giants are desperate for star power to compete with their powerful division rival in Los Angeles.In some ways, they're the most desperate team on this list. San Francisco hasn't won a playoff round since 2014 and has reached the playoffs just twice in the last decade.The Giants are 761-757 since 2015. They are average. They're tired of being average.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/cropped_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w220xh124_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w320xh180_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w640xh360_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w768xh432_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/747998/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2162326276.jpg?ts=1730489284 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Perhaps the new president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, can make a better pitch to Soto than the previous leadership group.The Giants do have a history of signing an elite left-handed slugger to a record-setting contract. They did just that with Barry Bonds in 1993. That proved to be an incredibly valuable signing.<h3>No. 2: Mets </h3>No owner is willing to spend like the Mets' Steve Cohen. According to <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3107553" href="https://thescore.com/news/3107553">our Scrooge Index</a>, Cohen is a remarkable outlier among owners - the only one willing to exceed his 2023 revenues with 2024 player payroll and tax payments.Cohen is the rare owner willing to operate at a loss, which makes the Mets the ultimate wild card. He's the wealthiest owner in baseball, boasting a net worth approaching $20 billion.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/cropped_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w220xh124_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w320xh180_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w640xh360_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w768xh432_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/599738/w1080xh607_GettyImages-1259922430.jpg?ts=1730489339 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Icon Sportswire / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Not only would signing Soto away from the Yankees generate great back-page interest in New York, but Soto could also swing the balance in the NL East, the most competitive division in baseball last year. The Mets finished tied with the Braves and six games behind the Phillies.Expect the Mets to be among the finalists for Soto.<h3>No. 1: Yankees </h3>You could argue that no team needs Soto more than the Yankees. After all, he was integral to New York reaching the World Series, highlighted by his game-winning three-run homer in the ALCS that sent the club to the title round.There's also an important roster-building context. Aaron Judge is entering his age-33 season, Gerrit Cole is 34, Giancarlo Stanton will be 35, and Carlos Rodon is 32. Rapid decline could happen to members of that core sooner rather than later.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/cropped_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750706/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179680821.jpg?ts=1730489374 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Yankees should have an advantage not just as an incumbent that captured the AL pennant, but they have the most revenue in the sport.That means, in theory, no one can outbid the Yankees, and few clubs should be as motivated to sign Soto.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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Ranking Juan Soto's suitors by desire and potential impact

Haters can no longer place an asterisk on this era of Los Angeles Dodgers baseball.   These Dodge...

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New Dodgers dynasty begins, and lessons for all the October teams

This is one of the most talent-laden World Series matchups in recent history.  The New York Yanke...

This is one of the most talent-laden World Series matchups in recent history.The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers were the No. 1 seeds in their respective leagues, the first time top seeds have met in the championship round, in a full season, since 2017. The rosters are loaded with future Hall of Famers, perhaps as many as seven.And that talent is expensive. <div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>The Dodgers and Yankees were two of three clubs to spend more than $300 million on player payroll this season. (The New York Mets were the other.)These payrolls have stirred debate. For some, this World Series underscores how imbalanced the financial playing field remains even with revenue sharing increasing over the years. For many fans of small- and mid-market teams, it remains an unfair game.Recall back in January when the Dodgers had spent more on two free agents (Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto) than the rest of MLB combined: $1.07 billion to $1.06 billion.In the Yankees' case, only six players on their 26-man roster are homegrown, the 25th-lowest share in MLB.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/cropped_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/751537/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178724595.jpg?ts=1729801121 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>While expanded playoffs often drive parity and create chaos in a sport that requires large samples to determine true talent, the three clubs with the most regular-season wins over the last decade are the Dodgers, Yankees, and Houston Astros. Over the long haul, money does buy happiness. And it is local revenue that largely separates the haves from the have-nots.The counterargument is that more owners should spend to be competitive. Ownership groups are very rich. Every owner could find a way to pay more for talented free agents if motivated to do so. Fans of the Dodgers and Yankees say it's not their fault rival owners do not spend more. Some owners do seem more interested in collecting revenue-sharing checks than competing.So, are the Yankees and Dodgers ownerships generous while much of the rest of the sport is too cheap?Comparing revenue to payroll, which owners are Scrooge-like? Some of what we found might surprise you.To answer this question, theScore employed <a href="https://d3data.sportico.com/MLBValuations2024/MLBVal.html">Sportico</a>'s team revenues for 2023, the most recently completed year, to understand clubs' cash-generating capability.Sportico says some, but not all, of its revenue data has been verified. At the very least, it puts us in the ballpark of understanding how much direct baseball revenues are created by clubs.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/cropped_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749564/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178038356.jpg?ts=1729801216 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Harry How / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>We then used 2024 player payroll data from <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total">Spotrac</a>, including estimated luxury-tax payments, and compared the figures. Front offices sign most player contracts with only projections of revenue, so even if this isn't a perfect calculation to use prior revenue against current payroll, again, it gets us in the ballpark.There are other costs associated with owning a team, of course, but by isolating player payroll versus team revenues, we can understand the commitment level of ownership groups.So, which ownership group has the most money left over after its player payroll and luxury-tax payments? The New York Yankees.The Yankees have a $344-million gap between their 2023 revenue and their 2024 player payroll. They seemingly have much more room to add payroll but do not, likely in part because luxury-tax penalties provide an incentive to spend less.New York can pay Juan Soto this offseason and still profit.According to Sportico's data, the Yankees' revenues ($720 million) are 2.44 times greater than the 24th-ranked Cleveland Guardians ($295 million), whom they defeated in the ALCS.As wild as it sounds, the Yankees are relatively frugal. By percentage of payroll to revenue, they rank 12th. The most fan-friendly ownership group: Across town, the New York Mets are an extreme outlier.Mets owner Steve Cohen's 2024 payroll bill is $9.2 million greater than the team's most recent full-year revenues. The Mets are willing to spend at a deficit like no other club. Cohen is the anti-Scrooge. <figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="MLB Scrooge index" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-F3HX5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/F3HX5/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="672" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>Consider that the gap between the Mets and the next most generous teams in terms of revenue minus payroll - Arizona, Kansas City, Colorado, Toronto, and Minnesota - is more than $100 million. The second-ranked Dodgers' percentage of payroll to revenue is 35 percentage points lower than the Mets'.The MLB average for player payroll, including the luxury tax, stood at $203 million, according to Spotrac. The average gap between last year's revenues and this year's payrolls was $191 million.Without knowing the associated costs of running a baseball team - debt payments, stadium costs, and other employee expenses - this still suggests that many owners could spend more to be competitive. It also shows how the beefed-up luxury tax is a drag on large-market teams' spending.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/cropped_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750736/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178716876.jpg?ts=1729801310 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>For a hint at teams' associated costs, we can look at the financial data for the publicly traded Atlanta Braves, owned by Liberty Media.(The Toronto Blue Jays are also owned by a public company, Rogers, but the club's individual expenditures are not broken down in the same detail.)In the Braves' most recent quarterly report, the club reported modest 4.7% revenue growth year over year, but a negative <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BATRK/financials/">profit margin</a>.Despite having the fifth-greatest gap between revenue and payroll and the sixth-largest percentage of revenue spent on players, the Braves claim costs are eating at their profit.theScore spoke with Bretton Fund portfolio manager Stephen Dodson in 2022 to understand why Wall Street was not more enamored with owning pro sports teams. After all, it seems that teams would be cash cows given the price of tickets and concessions. However, the margins associated with owning a pro sports business are not great relative to many other businesses."A sports team is almost always worth more to a very rich person than it is to a company who only cares about its cash flows," Dodson said. For context, while the Braves claim a negative net margin in their most recent quarterly report, chipmaker Nvidia's net profit margin was 55% for its last quarter. Tech giants like Alphabet (28%) and Apple (25%) are also far more lucrative businesses, according to financial statements.As Dodson’s co-manager Raphael de Balmann said in 2022: "Sports teams are a bit of a vanity asset, like owning a Picasso, and the highest bidder is going to be a very rich person who wants to own the team, so they (can) call themselves an owner of a sports team."And like a piece of fine art, most of the value of a sports franchise comes from the appreciation of the asset. (The other great benefit is that depreciation of assets related to owning a team can work as a giant tax shield.)<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/cropped_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w220xh124_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w320xh180_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w640xh360_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w768xh432_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633909/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2149322178.jpg?ts=1729801264 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Justin K. Aller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Yes, it would be great for fans if more billionaire owners were willing to spend on the franchises they own, even operating at a loss in order to win. Winning is bound to increase revenue. However, a large portion of their cash streams, namely local and national media dollars, are fixed over extended periods.And there is a scarcity problem.One is there are only so many billionaires. There are 759 in the United States, and of those, how many are interested in owning a sports franchise? How many of them would be willing to operate like Cohen?Even though someone might have a net worth of, say, $4 billion, most of that wealth is likely tied to owning a company or other nonliquid assets. There isn't $4 billion sitting in a checking account.Until there is a mechanism forcing more payroll parity (hello, salary floor), talent will go where the money is. The have-nots will need to build from within and hope for playoff chaos.All of this is going to get more complicated as several teams work through the loss of their cable deals with the bankrupt Diamond Sports, which operated the former Bally Sports regional networks. The Dodgers, for instance, still have a lucrative local cable TV deal, while many other clubs will see a major reduction in broadcast revenue until they can work out new contracts.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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How generous, or cheap, is your favorite MLB team's owner?

Major League Baseball's expanded playoffs often shake up the postseason, but the Cinderellas have...

Major League Baseball's expanded playoffs often shake up the postseason, but the Cinderellas have all gone home this year. The World Series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers represents the first clash between the leagues' No. 1 seeds in a non-shortened season since 2017. It's also the first time these behemoth franchises have met in the Fall Classic since 1981.The two teams feature as many as seven future Hall of Famers, making it a rare star-laden matchup. For context, the last World Series to feature <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/player-batting-season-finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=league_player_season_count&amp;comp_type=post&amp;comp_id%5B%5D=AL&amp;comp_id%5B%5D=NL&amp;is_hof=Y">seven or more</a> Hall of Famers was in 1959 when the Dodgers defeated the White Sox. (Future voting may change that.)<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>This series will also mark the 12th meeting between the two franchises in the World Series, the most common matchup in history. The Yankees hold an 8-3 edge.Let's explore each club's advantages on the path to the 2024 title.<h3>The lineup edge</h3>Detroit manager A.J. Hinch spoke to ESPN's Buster Olney this week <a href="https://x.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1848449081133387836">about a key</a> to defeating New York."One of the things to beat the Yankees, if you can just control the wrap-around at-bats. … If you can handle the guys on the back end of the lineup," Hinch said.The Cleveland Guardians failed to do that in the ALCS, particularly in the decisive Game 5.On a ground ball by No. 9 hitter Alex Verdugo with one out in the 10th inning, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio made an error on the flip from second baseman Andres Gimenez that would've been the second out. But the error ratcheted up the pressure as the Yankees' lineup rolled over to its superstars. Although Gleyber Torres struck out, the extended inning allowed Juan Soto to hit with two men on. His three-run homer all but ended the Guardians' season.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/cropped_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750708/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179680750.jpg?ts=1729711616 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>In the ALCS, Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton combined for nine home runs and 16 RBIs in 55 at-bats. The rest of the team had one homer and nine RBIs in 113 at-bats.The Guardians were beaten by the Yankees' stars, and there were often runners on base when they faced those stars.While the Yankees and Dodgers both finished at or near the top of many batting categories, New York's lineup is more top-heavy. Los Angeles' has more balance.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Regular season wRC+" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-7k4cv" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7k4cv/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="480" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The Yankees have three hitters (minimum 100 plate appearances) who were at least 30% better than league average by wRC+, but they feature six regular postseason contributors who were below the MLB average.The Dodgers also enjoy elite star power at the top of their lineup, but they feature five players with a wRC+ of 130 or better. There are fewer breaks in Los Angeles' lineup. That's a big edge.The club's No. 7 hitter might most often be catcher Will Smith, who hit 20 homers and drove in 75 runs in the regular season while posting a 111 wRC+.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/cropped_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750913/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178961857.jpg?ts=1729711565 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Rob Leiter / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>The Dodgers' likely No. 8 hitter against right-handers, shortstop Tommy Edman, is a league-average hitter over his last three seasons. He's a well-above-average performer this postseason, recording a .316 average, 12 RBIs, and a 123 wRC+.Rookie Andy Pages has batted ninth a number of times in the playoffs. He was a league-average hitter in the regular season (100 wRC+) and has been better than that in the postseason (113 wRC+).And if a pitcher can't retire those batters, Shohei Ohtani will come walking to the plate with runners on base. That's been a big problem for opponents as Ohtani is slashing .615/.737/1.077 with runners on this postseason. Behind him is Mookie Betts.Many Yankees relievers have relatively neutral platoon splits, so the Dodgers likely won't need to worry about late-game substitutions with weaker hitters like Chris Taylor or Kevin Kiermaier. They can simply let their best hitters hit.The Dodgers are averaging 6.4 runs per game this postseason, while the Yankees are averaging 4.8.<h3>The pitching edge</h3>Yankees manager Aaron Boone cited his rotation as an advantage during the ALCS last week. "I think right now, with the teams left, it is probably something that differentiates us a little bit," Boone said. "I feel like we're going to roll out four really good starters at you that have a chance to get us deeper into a game and hopefully set our pen up to be used even better."The Yankees' rotation allows them to play a more conventional game. The baseball world witnessed how difficult it is to sustain a bullpen as Cleveland's elite relief corps - the best all time <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3090404" href="https://thescore.com/news/3090404">by one measure</a> - began to falter. The Guardians' bullpen pitched 61% of their playoff innings.As theScore <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/3099813" href="https://thescore.com/news/3099813">researched</a> earlier this postseason, the more often a batter sees a reliever in a series, the less effective a reliever becomes. We saw that with Cleveland as relief stalwarts like Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis melted down in key spots.Like the Guardians, the Dodgers have also relied on bullpen games out of necessity this postseason. <figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/cropped_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w220xh124_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w320xh180_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w640xh360_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w768xh432_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/632349/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2157019150.jpg?ts=1729711485 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Ed Zurga / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>They've been plagued by injuries all season, tied with the cross-town Angels for the second-most pitchers used in the majors this season (40). L.A. is without rotation stalwarts Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw for the World Series.To date in this postseason, the Dodgers' rotation owns a 2-4 record and a 6.08 ERA, and it's pitching just 3.6 innings per start.L.A.'s Game 1 starter, Jack Flaherty, has been up and down in the postseason with a 7.04 ERA over three starts. The club’s No. 3 starter is Walker Buehler, who posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular-season starts after returning from injury. He's also been shaky in the postseason (6.00 ERA).The outlier is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will start Game 2 and has pitched like a front-of-the-rotation arm when he's been healthy.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/cropped_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/749549/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177246626.jpg?ts=1729711523 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Daniel Shirey / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Because of their starting pitching issues, the Dodgers' bullpen has logged 57 innings this postseason, most in the field, while their starters have combined for 40.The Yankees and Dodgers' bullpens were relatively even this year - Los Angeles finished fourth in bullpen ERA, New York sixth - but the Dodgers' relief corps has logged 20 more postseason innings than the Yankees after registering 24 more innings than them in the final month of the regular season.L.A.'s bullpen will benefit from four days of rest this week. The group has been very good this postseason with a 5-0 record and 3.16 ERA, but it'll likely need to continue to shoulder a heavy load while not burning out during a potential lengthy series.The Yankees have a more sustainable pitching plan.Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and 15-game winner Luis Gil give New York four quality rotation options.They've combined for a 2-1 record and a 3.89 ERA over nine starts and 44 innings (4.9 innings per start) this October.They give Boone more options that he can trust to work more than once through an opponent's lineup. When starters go longer, the game scripts are easier.Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt made 44 pitching and lineup changes in five games during the ALCS, while Boone only had to make 31 thanks in large part to his starting staff.The more decisions a manager makes, the more likely some are going to blow up. The Yankees' path is straightforward: win the starting pitching battles, reduce stress on their bullpen, and beat the Dodgers in a traditional way. Of course, working through L.A.'s lineup multiple times is a much different challenge than facing the Guardians or Kansas City Royals.On paper, the Dodgers have a deeper lineup, and the Yankees enjoy more pitching depth. In this World Series between the sport's two best teams, it'll be strength versus strength that determines the champion.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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In a clash of titans, the Dodgers and Yankees each have an edge to exploit

Wins and losses are rarely tied to one player - or one decision.  Decisions and performances are ...

Wins and losses are rarely tied to one player - or one decision.Decisions and performances are stacked, the cumulative result leading to game outcomes. But pivotal performances shape narrative and legacy.<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>And an all-time moment combined those things when the Yankees won Game 5 of the ALCS Saturday night and clinched a trip to the World Series.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/cropped_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750718/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179684568.jpg?ts=1729445388 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Against the Yankees, there are few easy decisions, few opportunities to relax.For instance, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt elected to stick with starter Tanner Bibee into the sixth inning in Game 5. At that moment, Bibee became the only starting pitcher Vogt trusted to handle a third trip through the middle of an opponent's order this postseason.Bibee had pitched well. He navigated through five scoreless innings, offering the Guardians' elite but overextended bullpen some much-needed length. Cleveland's relievers entered the night having pitched a whopping 62% of the club's innings this postseason. They were tiring, their velocities were decreasing, and locations were being missed more often.So as Giancarlo Stanton walked to the plate with two outs and a man on in the sixth - and a much less intimidating presence in Jazz Chisholm Jr. on deck - Vogt had Bibee pitch to Stanton. Stanton had struck out twice on the night, but he'd also homered three times in the first four games of the series.Decisions. Decisions.On the full-count offering, Guardians catcher Bo Naylor called for a low-and-away slider to try and end the inning with a chase. Worst case, Stanton wouldn't offer and he'd walk. Naylor emphatically moved his glove, the target, to below the zone. But Bibee missed the location. While his slider is typically excellent, this one hung in the zone, seemingly set on a batting tee for Stanton, who crushed it into the left-field bleachers. The blast left his bat at 118 mph.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/cropped_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750756/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179671776.jpg?ts=1729445066 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Bibee knew by the sound alone. He dropped his hands to his knees, his eyes facing the ground, without turning around.The choices to stick with Bibee - and pitch to Stanton - can be questioned. But it's never just the decision. Bibee didn't execute. Stanton did.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
"Stanton leads all active MLB hitters in home runs. He’s on pace to finish his career with over 500 homers. But the way he’s done it has carved out a niche all of his own." (🎥 <a href="https://twitter.com/Yankees?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Yankees</a>)<a href="https://t.co/exS8mmMTyV">pic.twitter.com/exS8mmMTyV</a>— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) <a href="https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1848032680727949636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Stanton now has seven career hits against the Guardians in the postseason. All seven are home runs.After the game, Vogt, the rookie manager, was asked about how he handles his decisions."The way I do it is I ask myself what's true. You can write a narrative in your head and spin yourself down a negative path and beat yourself up and second-guess and go back, but what's true is you made what you thought was the best decision in the moment and then you leave it behind," Vogt said. "I have a mentor of mine that says learn the lesson, leave the event. You leave the event behind and you learn everything you can from it, and there's no going back."<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/cropped_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w220xh124_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w320xh180_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w640xh360_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w768xh432_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750062/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2177757574.jpg?ts=1729033296 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Mary DeCicco / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>One criticism of Vogt, who helped the Guardians exceed expectations in the regular season, was that he too often challenged the Yankees' best hitters in this series.He trusted his elite bullpen arms to a fault.Stanton, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto combined for nine home runs and 16 RBIs over 55 at-bats.The rest of the Yankees combined for one homer and six RBIs over 113 at-bats.If the Yankees' star-power advantage wasn't evident in examining payroll alone, where the Yankees held more than a $200-million edge, it was in simply seeing the teams lined up across from each other in pregame introductions. Judge, Stanton and Soto simply towered over the Guardians.But while the Stanton blast deflated to the home crowd, it only tied the score. The series wasn't over.Zeroes followed. The Guardians looked to be in an advantageous position in the 10th inning.The bottom of the Yankees' lineup was due up against one of Cleveland's best bullpen arms in Hunter Gaddis, who relieved Emmanuel Clase. Vogt decided not to push his struggling closer, Clase, for a second inning.If the Guardians could avoid the Yankees' lineup rolling over, the advantage would swing in their favor.But with one out and a runner on to begin the 10th, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio appeared to rush the transition of securing a toss from second baseman Andrés Giménez to start a potential double play. The ball glanced off his glove. No out was recorded, ultimately allowing Soto to stride to the plate with two runners on base - and two outs - the score tied 2-2.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/cropped_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750717/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179684518.jpg?ts=1729445117 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Jason Miller / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>If Rocchio fields the flip cleanly, Soto never bats in the inning. In an alternate universe, the Guardians are on a team charter flight back to New York.But Rocchio dropped the ball.And while defeat and victory are accumulative in nature, narrative is not.There are also pivotal plays, singular swings, pitches, and decisions that are inflection points for a game, for a legacy.These are the high-leverage spots where star power plays up, where overwhelming talent forces better execution from an opponent and can better capitalize on mistakes.And there is perhaps no hitter better suited for the pivotal moment than Soto.Moments like that one on Saturday night illustrate why the Yankees paid a hefty price to acquire one year of Soto's services last winter. Soto is set to be a free agent after the season, and he could be rewarded with record compensation.With Soto approaching the plate, Vogt had to pick between poisons: pitch to Soto or Judge, the AL MVP favorite, who was waiting on deck. There was no good choice.Throughout the series, the Guardians tried to avoid Soto more than anyone else. He walked a team-high four times, including an intentional walk to face Judge with the bases loaded in Game 2. (Judge produced a sacrifice fly).There are reasons to avoid Soto. He's harder to strike out than Judge. He's less likely to chase an out-of-zone pitch. He was locked in, having already homered twice in the series. And he's been a better playoff performer than Judge.For his career, Judge has hit .203 in the postseason with a .761 OPS, while Soto's hit .278 with a .906 OPS.Soto embraces the moment. His confidence borders on arrogance, as seen in his trademark shuffle after a take of an out-of-zone pitch and the way he stares down pitchers. His confidence is backed by his uncommon talent. He's on a Hall of Fame track. Through all age 25 seasons in MLB history, Soto ranks 23rd in wRC+ and on-base percentage.The argument to pitch to him was likely this: Judge is better with breaking balls than Soto, and the former was unlikely to see a changeup from Gaddis. The slider and changeup are Gaddis' top pitches.Gaddis also held lefties to .172 average on the season. So Gaddis pitched to Soto. An anxious Progressive Field crowd was on its feet as Gaddis began with a first-pitch breaking ball that missed inside. Soto shuffled, staring back at the mound.Gaddis followed with another breaking ball, perfectly located at the bottom of the zone for a strike. The third pitch was a hanging slider, which Soto tried to yank into the seats. He fouled it away harmlessly. Gaddis had gotten away with a mistake. Rather than scolding himself for an opportunity missed, Soto glared toward Gaddis, again nodding his head up and down.Soto then fouled off the fourth pitch, a changeup. He again nodded his head yes. With each wasted pitch, the advantage swung to Soto. Familiarity with release point and stuff so often favors the hitter.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/cropped_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750524/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178443760.jpg?ts=1729444865 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Said Soto afterward: "I mean, I was all over him. I was all over him. That was the only thing I was thinking. I was just saying to myself, 'You're all over that guy. You're all over that guy. He ain't got anything.' And just try to make good contact, and I did."Soto then fouled away another changeup, and then a slider. He hadn't yet seen a fastball, but for good reason: Soto crushes fastballs, especially high ones.But, perhaps trying to surprise Soto, Naylor and Gattis agreed to throw an elevated fastball.Naylor again exaggerated the location, calling for the pitch above the zone.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Let's take a pitch-by-pitch look back at Juan Soto's breathtaking AB in the 10th inning! ↩️<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLBTonight?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLBTonight</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Postseason?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Postseason</a> <a href="https://t.co/rt4mYnPVR0">pic.twitter.com/rt4mYnPVR0</a>— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1847866446321480107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Gaddis didn't quite get the pitch high enough. Soto had homered on a similar pitch location in the first inning a night earlier against Gavin Williams. He did it again, lofting a high-arcing blast over the right-center field wall. The Yankees fans in attendance, perhaps 10% of the crowd, roared.Soto paused down the first-base line before thumping his chest while facing New York's bench, which spilled out of the dugout.In the middle of it all was Yankees manager Aaron Boone, who had far fewer difficult decisions to make."(Soto) has just such an ability to seize the moment," Boone said. "Every big moment that he finds himself in the middle, he delivers over and over and over again for us."It was an all-time plate appearance by Soto.It was the pivotal play built upon the accumulation of stars doing star-level things, along with questionable decisions and faulty execution by Cleveland. And the Yankees celebrated on a cool fall night, soaking the visiting clubhouse in champagne and beer, knowing they have only one more step to complete.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 19: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees celebrates after hitting a home run in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Guardians during Game Five of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 19, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio.

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CLEVELAND - Moments after Game 3 of the American League Championship Series ended Thursday night, I made my way from the press level at Progressive Field to the clubhouses.On my descent, I happened to share the same elevator car as the TBS television crew. In the cramped space, someone asked play-by-play announcer Brian Anderson about his emphatic calls of the game-tying and game-winning homers. He said he couldn't recall exactly what he said, just that he was yelling. Anderson's been calling baseball for 25 years and all he remembered was the emotion, not the words.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
The reactions and <a href="https://twitter.com/BAndersonPxP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BAndersonPxP</a>'s calls from the booth last night 🔥 <a href="https://t.co/zQPxaPtZ6O">pic.twitter.com/zQPxaPtZ6O</a>— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/BRWalkoff/status/1847302073744032228?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>After the postgame availabilities, I returned to the press level. Longtime Cleveland Guardians radio play-by-play voice Tom Hamilton was leaving for the night. He exclaimed to a passerby in the corridor: "You won't ever see a better game than that!"<div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div>Hamilton should know; he's called thousands of baseball games, including the three World Series that Cleveland has played in since 1995. The texts flooding my phone and the posts on social media echoed his sentiments.Recency bias often plays tricks, preventing us from being objective. Immediately after we witness a great game or performance, we proclaim it "the best ever!" But that's an awfully high bar to clear.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/cropped_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w220xh124_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w320xh180_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w640xh360_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w768xh432_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750337/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2179049118.jpg?ts=1729281320 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Maddie Meyer / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>Game 3 of the 2024 ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians was, of course, not a championship-round game. It wasn't even an elimination game. But it was objectively the best game of an MLB postseason that's included a few great ones so far. And by some measures, it was the best game of its kind in more than a decade.For context, consider Baseball Reference's Championship Win Probability Added statistic (cWPA), which measures how a player's performance impacts their team's chances of winning the World Series.The <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/pivotal_play_finder.cgi">top play of all time</a> by cWPA was Hal Smith's three-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth during Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. The Pittsburgh Pirates trailed by a run, and the blast flipped their probability of winning the World Series by more than 63 percentage points. The Yankees clawed back in the top of the ninth to tie the game 9-9. Bill Mazeroski's famous walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth is the sixth-ranked cWPA event in history (37.6%). Basically, it's tough to top Game 7 of the 1960 World Series.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE CLEVELAND!!!@CleGuardians <a href="https://t.co/pFJXq1Fghe">pic.twitter.com/pFJXq1Fghe</a>— Pete Marek (@PeteMarek) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteMarek/status/1847081260864491969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>Thursday night's game was not in the World Series, so it's almost impossible to swing championship-winning chances at historic levels.That said, of the 10 plays with the highest cWPA in the 2024 postseason, four occurred in Game 3 of the ALCS - all within the final three innings and a 72-minute span.Those four plate appearances - two from the Yankees and two from the Guardians - shifted each team's World Series-winning chances by 3 percentage points or more. (There haven't been four such plays in a single game during the first three games of an ALCS since Game 3 of the 2013 ALCS between Boston and Detroit.)<figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="10 biggest plays of 2024 playoffs" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Xt8Rq" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Xt8Rq/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="679" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure>The Guardians were feeling confident when manager Stephen Vogt summoned closer Emmanuel Clase to the mound following a two-out walk of Juan Soto in the eighth. Cleveland held a 3-1 lead with a 91% win probability, according to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2024-10-17&amp;team=Guardians&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2024">FanGraphs</a>.Clase was the top closer in the regular season, allowing just two home runs in 142 plate appearances against right-handed hitters. But he entered the game Thursday and gave up back-to-back home runs to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.<figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/cropped_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w220xh124_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w320xh180_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w640xh360_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w768xh432_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/750473/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2178252274.jpg?ts=1729281124 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> Lauren Leigh Bacho / Getty Images</figcaption></figure>If the Guardians had to do it over again, Clase and catcher Bo Naylor probably wouldn't have let Judge extend his arms to reach an outside cutter. Still, it required a remarkable swing to slash the darting 99-mph pitch just over the right-field wall.Stanton followed with a shot to right center. The Yankees' bench celebrated wildly, spilling out of the dugout. The game - the series - was in their grasp following their remarkable change of fortune.The Judge swing reduced the Guardians' chances of winning the game by 33 percentage points, and the Stanton shot shaved them by another 29.<figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Postseason go-ahead belly-to-belly from John Sterling 🔥🎙 <a href="https://t.co/ux4hvbdzGm">pic.twitter.com/ux4hvbdzGm</a>— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) <a href="https://twitter.com/nypostsports/status/1847064780214829435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2024</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure>With the Guardians trailing by two runs in the bottom of the ninth, the once-raucous Cleveland crowd went silent when Josh Naylor grounded into a double play. Down to their final out, the Guardians' probability of winning had tumbled to 1%.That chance shrunk into decimal places when the next batter, Lane Thomas, was down to his final strike.But Thomas doubled, and Jhonkensy Noel - nicknamed "Big Christmas" - was sent to the plate as a pinch hitter with one job."He pinch hit to hit a homer. That's why we sent him up there," Vogt said.Noel smashed a no-doubt, game-tying home run to left. In the bottom of the 10th inning, David Fry followed with his walk-off.As Fry began to trot down the first-base line and the crowd rose, following the no-doubt arc of the ball's flight, Yankees manager Aaron Boone tossed his chewing gum in frustration. Two lightning bolts had vaporized the Yankees' opportunity to take a 3-0 stranglehold on the series.Postgame, Boone was asked if his club "might have felt, 'We've got this in the bag'?""Come on. No," Boone said. "Got this in the bag? Stop it with that."Any heartbreak the Yankees might have felt wasn't on the same level as Cleveland's after losing Game 7 of the World Series in 1997 and 2016.We watch sports for a chance to see the improbable. Fans seek moments of ecstasy, but they aren't as sweet without the bitter experience of heartache. Game 3 had it all.I got into the parking garage elevator with who I presumed was a father and two teenage sons."Good ballgame, " I deadpanned. "Best ever!" one of them responded.Hyperbole? Sure. But those who saw it won't forget it anytime soon.Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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