Masters forecaddie: Running analysis of Round 3 at Augusta National

Stay tuned throughout the day as theScore updates you with insights and analysis from Round 3 of the Masters.

Moving day at Augusta was nothing short of incredible. From start to finish, fireworks were all over the course. Golf fans are in for a treat if Sunday's final round is half as good as Saturday's.

Below was our running analysis and updates throughout the second round. (All times ET.)

7:15 p.m. - Here's where we stand after Round 3:

Here's what we saw out of each of the contenders.

Rory McIlroy: It's crazy to say McIlroy left shots out there, but his 66 should have been more like a 64. He opened with six consecutive threes (a Masters record) but bogeyed the par-5 8th, missed a short birdie effort on No. 9, and 3-putted No. 10. Still, McIlroy holds a two-shot edge after 54 holes. He's four of five in converting 54-hole leads in major championships.

Bryson DeChambeau: He didn't have his best stuff today, but his short game and putting kept his hopes alive. DeChambeau lost 1.79 strokes on approach shots but gained 1.32 around the green and 1.23 with his putter. His lengthy birdie putt on No. 18 was huge for his chances, moving his odds from +330 (23.3% implied probability) to +180 (35.7% implied probability)

Justin Rose: The 36-hole leader posted a 3-over 75 in the final pairing. His putter cooled off, and his tee-to-green game remained inconsistent. It was a good run for the 44-year-old, but his chance at the green jacket is all but over.

Scottie Scheffler: It was another mundane round for the reigning Masters champion. He shot even par Saturday with only two birdies. He's seven shots behind McIlroy and extremely unlikely to win back-to-back green jackets.

Corey Conners: The Canadian had a front-row seat to McIlroy's round, but could not get much momentum going. His 2-under day was solid, but failing to birdie either of the two par 5s on the back nine will likely keep him out of the running.

7:00 p.m. - Bang! Bryson DeChambeau drains a 48-footer on the final hole for birdie, cutting into Rory McIlroy's lead and capping an incredible day at Augusta. The reigning U.S. Open champ will trail McIlroy by two going into the final round, which will be must-watch TV.

6:50 p.m. - Rory McIlroy posts another sensational 66 around Augusta National to sit at 12-under. It marks the first 54-hole lead he's held in a major since 2014. He's also the -330 betting favorite, an implied probability of 76.7%.

6:45 p.m. - DeChambeau heads to the last hole three back of McIlroy. The two are destined to be paired together in tomorrow's final pairing - a rematch of the 2024 U.S. Open.

6:05 p.m. - Rory does it again! He extends his lead to four shots over Corey Conners after converting an eagle putt set up by a majestic approach from 205 yards on the par-5 15th. McIlroy is 6-under today, which would tie the lowest round of the day. He's now eagled three of the past six par 5s he's played.

5:45 p.m. - As expected, Justin Rose has fallen back to Earth as his putter cools off. He's lost over 1.5 strokes putting in Round 3 after gaining over seven on the greens in his first two rounds combined. Rose is 2-over for the day, four behind Rory McIlroy.

5:35 p.m. - McIlroy cashes in on the par-5 13th, birdieing one of the easier holes on the course to increase his lead to two. DeChambeau bogeys the par-3 12th but launches his drive on No. 13 to set up a potential eagle opportunity. DeChambeau has made one birdie and one par on No. 13 this week.

5:15 p.m. - Scottie Scheffler is once again struggling to gain momentum around Augusta. The defending champ is 1-over in Round 3 with only one birdie and two bogeys. Sitting five shots off the pace, he's losing strokes on approach shots and on the greens.

4:50 p.m. - A lot can change in an hour. Rory McIlroy's brief four-shot lead vanishes after making his second bogey in three holes on No. 10. Meanwhile, Corey Conners birdies three straight to get within one of McIlroy's lead alongside DeChambeau.

Updated odds:

4:45 p.m. - Every hole on the back nine is playing over par except for the two par 5s - Nos. 13 and 15. Keep this in mind as the final group tees off on No. 10.

4:20 p.m. - McIlroy makes his first mistake of the day with a bogey on the par-5 eighth. The unforced error on Augusta's second easiest hole drops him back to 10-under, but it came at the same time DeChambeau bogeyed the par-4 seventh. McIlroy leads DeChambeau and Shane Lowry by three.

4:00 p.m. - DeChambeau is struggling with his iron play. He's found two greenside bunkers, and two other approach shots have left him with 40 feet or longer for birdie. His short game and putting are keeping him afloat through six holes. He trails Rory McIlroy by three.

3:45 p.m. - McIlroy becomes the first person ever to start a Masters round with five straight threes. His birdie on No. 5 gained him 1.29 strokes on the field, and moved him to the odds-on favorite at -140.

3:15 p.m. - Get to a TV immediately. McIlroy is 4-under through four and has extended his lead to two shots over DeChambeau and Justin Rose. DeChambeau bogeys the short par-4 third, a hole playing 0.31 shots under par.

2:55 p.m. - We're only 15 minutes into the final group's round, and it's been nothing but fireworks! DeChambeau rolls in a 45-footer for birdie on No. 1, and McIlroy chips in for eagle on No. 2.

Updated odds:

2:45 p.m. - McIlroy birdies the first hole to move to +200 in the betting market. The first hole is playing slightly over par, so McIlroy steals an early one. Scottie Scheffler birdies No. 2 to climb to 6-under. Justin Rose has his work cut out for him if he's going to fend off an elite crop of chasers.

2:30 p.m. - We're minutes away from having all the groups on the course. None of the early chasers made a notable move, but Jason Day, Sungjae Im, and Viktor Hovland are all under par and within three of Justin Rose's lead.

2:10 p.m. - Augusta is playing the easiest it has all week. The scoring average is currently 71.07, nearly a stroke under par. In Round 1, it played 1.59 strokes over par.

2:05 p.m. - OK, Zach Johnson is on another level. The 2007 champion is now 7-under through 16 - well on his way to his best career round at Augusta. It's unlikely anyone else will post a number this low today, but it's good to know it's possible.

1:45 p.m. - Zach Johnson is going low! No, he's not going to win, but he's 5-under through 14, proving low scores on moving day are out there.

12:30 p.m. - Here's what we'll focus on in the earlier rounds:

• Overnight rain softened the course Friday morning. It will be interesting to see how firm the course plays since it will only get firmer as the day goes on.
• Nos. 1-3: This segment of Augusta National is ripe for birdies. If you can get by the first with a par, you'll have a real shot at reaching 2-under through three holes. The par-5 second is one of the easiest holes on the course, and No. 3 has already conceded 10 birdies to the 19 players who played it in Round 3.
• No. 5 played as the most difficult hole in Round 1, but it was the sixth toughest on Day 2 despite conceding only six birdies. If a player can either avoid disaster or steal a birdie on No. 5 today, that could play a huge role in their standing going into Sunday.
• Navigating Amen Corner can make or break a player's round. The pin on No. 11 will likely leave a lot of players to deal with a tricky pitch shot. On No. 12, the pin is situated in the center of the green but is well protected between the two greenside bunkers. Wind is always a factor on the short par 3 as well. And on No. 13, the pin is located on a tiny shelf at the back of the green that will be tough to access. There will likely be a lot of two-putts unless someone can perfectly judge the rollout on their approach shot.

11:30 a.m. - The leaders don't tee off until after 2 p.m., but plenty is going on in Round 3 that helps set the stage for what's to come. For example, Jon Rahm is off to a blistering start with three straight birdies to start his round. That will let chasers like Xander Schauffele (-2), Collin Morikawa (-3), and Ludvig Aberg (-3) know there are birdies available on the opening few holes.