The Players Championship betting: Can anyone prevent Scottie's defense?

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The greatest fear of PGA TOUR bettors who avoid the top of the oddsboard came to light last week when Scottie Scheffler's putter showed up at Bay Hill. The World No. 1 gained 4.3 strokes putting (fifth best in the field) for a five-stroke victory.

For months, Scheffler struggled with the flatstick. He consistently ranked near the bottom of events in strokes gained: putting but still managed to rack up top-10 finishes due to his world-class tee-to-green game. Scheffler was an easy fade during this stretch at single-digit betting odds because you couldn't rely on his putter to perform.

That's not the case this week, as Scheffler is the substantial favorite to defend his title at The Players Championship at +525 and is coming off his best putting week in over a year. Now, bettors need to decide if they believe in Scheffler's newest weapon or think last week's showing was an anomaly

The course

• Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• 7,275 yards, par 72
• Designed by Pete Dye
• Water in play on 17 holes
• Poa Trivialis overseed greens
• Three of four par 5s are reachable in two by most
• Finishing holes of 16, 17, and 18 are some of the most exciting in golf

Past winners

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
2022: Cam Smith (-13)
2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
2020: Canceled
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
2017: Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016: Jason Day (-15)

The favorites

As mentioned, Scheffler is the favorite by a big margin. His implied win probability of 16% is over double that of Rory McIlroy's, who's the second favorite.

It's scary to fade Scheffler after the incredible performance he put together last week. He dominated at a tough Bay Hill setup and is in peak form as he begins his title defense at TPC Sawgrass. With that said, +525 is too short at a venue with danger lurking around every corner. He could easily win by multiple shots, but very few players have ever maintained a 16% winning percentage.

We liked McIlroy last week, but he looked lost with his irons at Bay Hill, which is enough reason for concern to fade him at Sawgrass. One poor approach shot into these heavily protected greens can ruin a player's week.

If forced to pick from the favorites, Justin Thomas would be the target at +2000. He cashed us a top-20 ticket last week with another strong outing. Thomas is a former Players champion who appears to have put the struggles that hampered him last season behind him.

The next tier

Odds via theScore Bet

Thanks to Scheffler soaking up a large chunk of the win equity, oddsmakers are forced to price a handful of players longer than normal.

Patrick Cantlay, for instance, is rarely +2800 in the new-look PGA TOUR fields. He's almost always priced right beside Xander Schauffele, who's +2000. Ludvig Aberg has also drifted to +3500 after spending the beginning parts of the year in the low +2000 range.

But Will Zalatoris at +2500 - the absolute lowest price you should back him at - gets our attention. He played well last week, and he held a multi-shot lead on the weekend at one point. However, Scheffler simply played too well to be beaten.

Max Homa is also worth consideration. He's recorded back-to-back top-15 finishes at TPC Sawgrass and was T8 last week at Bay Hill.

Finally, the Wyndham Clark disrespect continues with his +4000 price tag. He won four starts ago and was the runner-up last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For some reason, Clark seems to always make noise in these signature events.

Picks

Will Zalatoris: To win (+2500), top 10 (+290)

We're making Zalatoris our lone outright selection for this simple fact: Scheffler is scary.

Investing too much in the outright market when Scheffler is playing as well as he is can be detrimental to the bankroll. Instead, we'll take one shot with Zalatoris, who has back-to-back top-five finishes in signature events.

Zalatoris' game suits TPC Sawgrass. He's driving it exceptionally well, and his irons rarely take weeks off. Zalatoris has gained strokes putting in three straight tournaments, which is a positive sign for his chances of contending.

Wyndham Clark: Top 10 (+370)

Clark is playing too well to ignore at this price for a top-10 finish. He may not be the prototypical fit for Sawgrass, but the same could've been said before he teed it up at Pebble Beach and won in a weather-shortened event.

Clark has only made one cut at Sawgrass in three starts, but that came last year when he was playing at a similar level as he is now. What's encouraging is that he gained 4.8 strokes off the tee in last year's event, meaning he can still have a big edge over the field with his biggest weapon. If he can continue to putt like he did last week and hit his irons equally as well, there's no reason why Clark can't be in the mix for another marquee victory.

For the above reasons, we'll also target Clark in a 72-hole match bet versus Shane Lowry at +100.

Tony Finau: Top 20 (+225)

Tony Finau's outright odds of +6000 are tempting, but we'll pay to take the much safer top-20 route. His iron play has been great recently, ranking third in the field in strokes gained: approach over his past 24 rounds. He also ranks fifth over the past 100 rounds.

Min Woo Lee (-115) over Matt Fitzpatrick

Lastly, we'll target Min Woo Lee in a 72-hole match bet versus Matthew Fitzpatrick.

Lee came second at the Cognizant Classic and struck the ball well last week at Bay Hill. He also came T6 in his lone start at The Players last year.

Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick is struggling across the board. He's failed to gain strokes both off the tee and through approach shots in five of his last seven starts. He's made seven starts at TPC Sawgrass with four missed cuts, two finishes outside the top 40, and one top 10.