Arnold Palmer Invitational betting: Will the stars finally show up?

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It's been an unpredictable start to the 2024 PGA TOUR season. The list of winners is jarring, especially when you look at the betting odds at which each player closed.

Six of the nine golfers to hoist a trophy this year were priced at +10000 or longer. The winner with the shortest odds was Jake Knapp, who was +4000 two weeks ago in Mexico.

So, when will the stars show up?

You would think this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational is the perfect occasion. It's a signature event, meaning the field is stout with the TOUR's best players, and the course - Bay Hill - is a demanding test that usually only the greats can tackle.

However, last year's winner, Kurt Kitayama, bucked the trend of elite winners at "Arnie's Place" when he slid on the iconic red cardigan as a +20000 champion. So perhaps we'll continue to see the long-shot trend continue.

The course

• 7,466 yards, par 72
• Bermuda grass greens
• All four par 3s over 195 yards
• Five par 4s over 450 yards
• Water in play on nine holes

Previous winners

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
2016: Jason Day (-17)
2015: Matt Every (-19)
2014: Matt Every (-13)
2013: Tiger Woods (-13)

The favorites

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +700 following four top-10 finishes in his last five starts. His putter will always be a concern, but he does appear to be making a change this week that could turn things around. With that said, we'll take a wait-and-see approach and not feel too bad if we miss Scheffler at +700.

Rory McIlroy is intriguing at +850. He led the field in strokes gained: tee to green last week but lost 3.6 strokes on the green. The Northern Irishman has has eight top-13 results among his nine starts at Bay Hill, and he was the 2018 winner as well as the runner-up last year.

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are fairly priced at +1800 and +2000, respectively. Both are in solid form and have the skillset to overcome Bay Hill.

As for the other two favorites, Viktor Hovland seems to be in a slight rut, while Ludvig Aberg, an immense talent, is too short at +1800.

The next tier

Cameron Young opened closer to +4000 but has been bet down to a number that's easy to pass on. He did come fourth last week at PGA National, so you may be better off looking into derivative markets to see if value still exists on him.

Will Zalatoris is worth a look. He came second at the Genesis Invitational to prove he's past the injury issues that kept him out most of last season, and he gained eight strokes total and 5.3 on approach shots at Riviera.

Lastly, Justin Thomas had one bad start in his five tournaments and saw his odds crater. Had he not missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, he'd be priced closer to the favorites, or at least shorter than Young.

Picks

Shane Lowry made us sweat Monday morning when he played in the final group at the Cognizant Classic while we held a +3000 outright ticket. It wasn't meant to be, but we still walked away with a profitable week thanks to Lowry's top-10 finish and Keith Mitchell coming inside the top 20.

Here are five selections for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Rory McIlroy: To win (+850), top 10 (+100)

We're going for the home run here with McIlroy to win at +850 while covering our tracks if he contends with a top-10 wager at even money.

There's too much to like about McIlroy's game at the moment to ignore. He's driving it incredibly well, which will help separate him from the pack at the challenging Bay Hill, and his course history speaks for itself. Rarely do odds feel fair when priced this short, but this is one of those outlier scenarios.

Will Zalatoris: To win (+2800), top 20 (+100)

Zalatoris is our second and final swing in the outright market, and +2800 is the shortest price at which you should be backing him.

His most recent start at Riviera is extremely encouraging, especially after he was T13 at Torrey Pines three weeks prior. Zalatoris has teed it up at Bay Hill three times in his career and has no missed cuts with a T10 as his best finish.

Justin Thomas: Top 20 (-110)

We'll treat Thomas' last start as an outlier and focus on his strong play to start the year. He contended at The American Express, was T6 at Pebble Beach, and came T12 at the Phoenix Open. He's consistently gaining strokes in all categories, which should translate well to Bay Hill, which tests all aspects of a player's game.

Additionally, Thomas came T21 at Bay Hill last year while having a down season.