Genesis betting preview: Who will contend at Tiger's event?

The WM Phoenix Open stung for several reasons. First, we've been on Nick Taylor multiple times this season, but we overlooked him in a tournament where he was the runner-up last year.

Second, two of our bets - Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama - missed out on their finishing-position prop by one stroke each. A missed putt here and a missed putt there, plus getting off Taylor at the wrong time, led to a disappointing week that left our pockets empty.

Thankfully, the PGA TOUR is back in action from the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club for the third signature event of the season. Host Tiger Woods is playing in his first tournament of 2024.

This year's field is reduced to 70 golfers due to the event's signature status. This tournament does have a cut, but it only applies to those outside the top 50 and more than 10 shots off the 36-hole lead, so it takes especially poor play to not make the weekend.

The course

• Riviera Country Club, Los Angeles
• 7,322 yards, par 71
• Poa annua grass greens
• Two par 5s over 580 yards, and one under 510 yards
• Four par 4s over 470 yards
• Comparable venues: Augusta National, Quail Hollow

Past winners

2023: Jon Rahm (-17) over Max Homa
2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19) over Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young
2021: Max Homa (-12) over Tony Finau
2020: Adam Scott (-11) over three players
2019: J.B. Holmes (-14) over Justin Thomas
2018: Bubba Watson (-12) over Kevin Na, Tony Finau
2017: Dustin Johnson (-17) over Scott Brown, Thomas Pieters

Betting on Tiger

Woods is making his first start since early December and only his second since last year's Masters. Rust will be an issue, as it usually seems to be due to his light schedule.

Tiger is +15000 to win and that probably doesn't represent his true chances. It would be a complete shock if Woods won this week, and not because he's barely played. Despite being the tournament host, Tiger has never won at Riviera, his lone runner-up finish came in 1999, and his best result since 2017 is a T15.

If you are looking to get some action down on Tiger, finishing-position markets are the way to go. He's +105 to have a T30 finish or better on theScore Bet. Additionally, Tiger's price for making 15 or more birdies for the week is +275. If you think he can get hot for a couple of rounds despite the rust, this is a decent bet.

The favorites

Once again, Scheffler is the favorite at +650. He'll remain in this spot until he somehow falls out of form. But we're bypassing Scheffler at that price and focusing on Justin Thomas once again.

Thomas played solidly in Phoenix, gaining 6.9 strokes tee to green to finish in a tie for 12th. He was a runner-up at Riviera in 2019, and he's likely extra motivated to win his good friend Tiger's tournament. Odds of +1400 are as short as you'll see, and grab anything you can find at +2000 or above.

You could also look to Patrick Cantlay or Collin Morikawa. Both possess the all-around game necessary to contend at Riviera and have the track records to prove it, combining for five top-15 showings in the past five years.

The next tier

This range has a few more valuable options, starting with Sam Burns at +2200.

Burns' third-place finish at the Genesis in 2021 was something of a coming-out party, as he went on to win his first PGA TOUR event five starts later. He's playing well so far in 2024 and was the favorite to win in Palm Springs with a few holes remaining before a costly water ball sunk his chances. Burns gained over six strokes off the tee and over four on the greens last week in Phoenix to finish in a tie for third.

Have a look at this list of golfers averaging the most birdies or better per round at the Genesis (we'll circle back to Cameron Young later):

Wyndham Clark played decently for three rounds last week before a final-round 75 dropped him to 41st. However, he won two starts ago and won at Quail Hollow last season - a venue that's shared winners with Riviera, including Max Homa, J.B. Holmes, and James Hahn.

Picks

Justin Thomas: Top 10 (+175)

Thomas has the third-shortest outright odds at +1400 alongside Hovland but is priced at +175 in the top-10 market, whereas Hovland is +120. You can find value with golfers whose outright odds have shifted while their prices lag in other markets.

Although Thomas gained strokes in all areas last week in Phoenix, some untimely miscues derailed his momentum. His worst finish in his last seven starts worldwide is a T12.

If you can find him in the outright market at +1800 or higher, take it - but given the odds we're working with, we can only recommend a top-10 bet.

Cameron Young: To Win (+3300), Top 10 (+300)

As highlighted above, Young makes a lot of birdies or better at Riviera, which has led to success at the Genesis. He tied for second in his first appearance and was T20 last year. Young finished T8 last week in Phoenix - another course that suits his strengths - and is overdue to find the winner's circle for the first time in his career.

Wyndham Clark: Top 10 (+330)

A limited field makes a top-10 finish a lower ask than usual, since golfers don't need to beat as many competitors to place closer to the top of the leaderboard.

Clark at plus-money in this market is great value. He won two starts ago, he played well for the majority of last week, and in three career starts at Riviera, he's recorded two top-20 results.

Sahith Theegala: Top 20 (+118)

Sahith Theegala was in the thick of things last week in Phoenix, but he couldn't make enough birdies Sunday to truly contend. He gained 8.7 strokes tee to green to earn a T5 for his second top 10 of the season.

The California native has played the Genesis Invitational three times in his career - once as an amateur - and made the cut every time. He placed T6 last year while gaining 10.3 strokes tee to green.