Pebble Beach betting preview: JT on verge of winner's circle return

Matthieu Pavon's victory at Torrey Pines marked the fourth straight long-shot winner at the PGA TOUR. It's been an unprecedented run for players priced above +10000 and another reminder of how difficult it is to hit outright winners.

However, thanks to Will Zalatoris (+200) and Kevin Yu (+400) finishing in the top 20 last week, we were able to turn in another profitable tournament to bring our season's ROI to 63%.

The PGA TOUR now heads north up the California coast to one of golf's most iconic venues for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This year's edition is a newly minted signature event, meaning there are only 80 players in the field with no cut.

The pro-am portion of the tournament is also revised this year. It'll only take place for the first two rounds of the event and rotate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. So if you want to catch Larry The Cable Guy, Bill Murray, or Josh Allen in action, you best tune in Thursday or Friday.

The weather looks like it'll play a factor. It's supposed to be wet for the majority of the week with extremely high winds rolling in for Sunday's final round. There's a chance the tournament needs to be pushed to Monday.

The courses

Pebble Beach Golf Links

• 6,972 yards, par 72
• Poa annua grass greens
• Played three times this week
• Smallest average green size on TOUR
• Third-shortest course on TOUR last year

Spyglass Hill Golf Course

• 7,041 yards, par 72
• Played once by golfers
• Poa annua greens
• Three of four par 5s over 550 yards

Past winners

2023: Justin Rose (-18) over Brendon Todd, Brandon Wu
2022: Tom Hoge (-19) over Jordan Spieth
2021: Daniel Berger (-18) over Maverick McNealy
2020: Nick Taylor (-19) over Kevin Streelman
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19) over Paul Casey
2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17) over four players
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19) over Kelly Kraft

The favorites

Rory McIlroy opens his first start on the PGA TOUR in 2024 as the co-favorite alongside Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy won in Dubai in his most recent outing and was the runner-up to Tommy Fleetwood two starts ago. McIlroy's deserving of +800 odds, but he hasn't played this event enough for anyone to be comfortable backing him at this price.

Scheffler is easy to fade as putting is extremely important at this tournament. The greens at Pebble Beach are small and tough to hit, which leaves a lot of shorter par putts on bumpy poa greens.

Xander Schauffele would be the top option if forced to pick a winner from the favorites. He's already recorded three top 10s on the year, including a fantastic ball-striking display that led him to a T9 at Torrey Pines last week. If his putter heats up a bit, he should be in contention come Sunday.

The next tier

Patrick Cantlay kicks off this tier at +2000. He's not playing his best golf, but he does have a great tournament history. Cantlay came T4 in 2022 and T3 in 2021, so a comfortable setting such as Pebble Beach could be the spot where he regains his form.

Justin Thomas is being priced as if he's still searching for his game, although signs are telling us he's already back. He has top-five finishes in his last four worldwide starts, including a T3 at The American Express two weeks ago. Although he's barely played this event, you'd have to expect having Jim "Bones" Mackay on the bag will help out a ton. Mackay was the former caddie of Phil Mickelson, who played Pebble nearly every year and won the event three times.

If the weather gets nasty, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood deserve a look. Not only are they fit for the course thanks to their strong wedge play, but they'd be able to separate from the pack if it gets windy.

Picks

Justin Thomas: To win (+2500)

Thomas winning at +2500 leads off our picks section. For the reasons outlined above, his price reflects an elite player who's only starting to show signs of regaining his form. However, Thomas is clearly on the verge of a victory given his recent play spanning multiple months.

Matthew Fitzpatrick: To Win (+3500), Top 20 (+150)

Fitzpatrick is a world-class putter with an incredible short game - a combination that should bode well for three rounds at Pebble Beach. His chances will only increase if the scoring conditions get difficult as Fitzpatrick gains more strokes on the field in windy conditions as opposed to calm or moderate wind speeds.

Jason Day: Top 20 (+162)

Jason Day loves playing at Pebble Beach, and his results reflect that. He's placed inside the top 20 10 times in his 13 career starts at this event. Day played well at The Sentry to start the year and made the cut at The American Express. Expect him to be on the first couple of pages of the leaderboard by the time the final round concludes.

J.T. Poston: Top 20 (+175)

J.T. Poston ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained: total over the past 50 rounds. He's usually not considered to be among the game's elite, but his play over the past half-year would indicate he is. Poston has three top-11 results to start 2024, and 10 of his last 12 starts have all been top-25 finishes.

Hideki Matsuyama: Top 20 (+185)

Hideki Matsuyama showed flashes of brilliance last week at Torrey Pines. He gained 7.3 strokes tee to green but gave a few back on the greens en route to a T13 finish. If Matsuyama carries his ball-striking form from last week to Pebble Beach, he'll finish inside the top 20 far more frequently than his odds indicate.

Nick Taylor: Top 20 (+330)

Finally, a top-20 bet on Nick Taylor rounds out our picks for the week. The Canadian is a former winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has back-to-back top-20 finishes at this tournament. He also came T7 two starts ago at the Sony Open.