NHL Fantasy: 5 bounce-back candidates to target
The following players are coming off down seasons but could return to their prior form in 2025-26.
Auston Matthews, C, Maple Leafs
ADP: 8.5
Don't hesitate to select Matthews if he's somehow available in the back half of the first round of your draft, as his ADP would suggest. Even in a season where he scored just 33 goals, the fewest of his career, Matthews still finished as the 10th-ranked skater in leagues that count goals, assists, plus/minus, shots, power-play points, hits, and blocks.
Matthews missed 15 games due to injury last season and wasn't at 100% for most of the games he did play. The injury didn't affect his ability to generate scoring chances - he finished third in the league in individual expected goals - but it clearly took a toll on his finishing ability, as he shot a career-low 12.2%. Matthews' ability to stay healthy is admittedly a question mark, but if his shooting percentage springs back to his 18.7% from 2023-24, or even just his career average of 15.8%, he could easily flirt with scoring 60 goals and be a top-three player in fantasy hockey.
Elias Pettersson, C/LW, Canucks
ADP: 68.6
The 2024-25 season was one to forget for Pettersson - on and off the ice. On the ice, he managed 45 points in 64 appearances, the worst per-game output of his career. Off the ice, his rift with J.T. Miller became the story of the Canucks' season and likely affected his play.
But with Miller gone and Pettersson highly motivated to rebound, the Vancouver center could easily recapture his prior form. The career-high 102 points he racked up in 2022-23 may be too much to expect, but an 80-90 point campaign is well within reach as the focal point of the Canucks' offense. That type of upside is difficult to find in the sixth or seventh round of your fantasy draft, where Pettersson is projected to land.
Mika Zibanejad, C/RW, Rangers
ADP: 138.5
Zibanejad has been trending in the wrong direction in recent years, with his production plummeting to 20 goals and 62 points a year ago. Declining pace has started to become a problem for him, but the Rangers helped mitigate that by moving him from center to wing after the midseason acquisition of J.T. Miller.
Before Miller's arrival, Zibanejad managed just 29 points in 50 games. From February onward, he produced 33 points in 32 appearances while primarily playing on Miller's wing. New head coach Mike Sullivan said he envisions Zibanejad beginning the season on the wing. If Zibanejad's production as a winger translates, he could provide tremendous value in the back half of your draft.
Morgan Rielly, D, Maple Leafs
ADP: 133.5
Rielly's 41 points in 82 games last season represented his worst points-per-game mark since his age-22 campaign in 2016-17. Part of the reason for his decreased production was getting bounced from the No. 1 power play, as Toronto opted for a five-forward unit most of the season with Mitch Marner serving as the de facto defenseman.
But with Marner in Vegas and no obvious forward capable of serving as power-play quarterback, look for Rielly to regain that role. His only challenger would be 34-year-old Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Playing a full season with a steady, reliable partner in 2025 trade deadline pickup Brandon Carlo should help his five-on-five output, too. Rielly would be a steal at his current ADP if he returns to his 50-60 point self.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Bruins
ADP: 116.5
If you need a goalie in the back half of your draft, it never hurts to scoop up a talented netminder projected to take on a large workload. That's Swayman to a T.
His first season as Boston's undisputed No. 1 did not go well: He posted an .892 save percentage in 58 games. But considering his track record - he'd never posted a save percentage below .914 entering 2024-25 - there's a good chance he returns to form this season. The Bruins are unlikely to be without their top two defensemen, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, for a combined 67 games again. Swayman is also in the prime of his career at 26 years old and clearly intent on bouncing back.
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)