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MacKinnon to shoot the lights out on home ice

Andy Cross/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images / Denver Post / Getty

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We have two high-stakes playoff games on the docket Monday night. The Rangers can close out their series with a win, and the Stars could put the Avalanche on the brink of elimination if they can steal another victory in Colorado.

Let's take a look at the best ways to attack the games.

Guentzel over 2.5 shots + Stankoven over 1.5 shots

I normally advise playing everything straight, but here's a parlay worth an exception.

We'll start with Jake Guentzel. Through four games, he's piled up 18 shots on 33 attempts. That's an average of 4.5 shots and more than eight attempts per contest.

Shooting success against the Rangers isn't new for Guentzel. He's had their number for years, recording at least three shots in 15 of their past 17 meetings (most of which came when he played for the Penguins). He routinely soars past his total, averaging 4.7 shots in that frame.

With the Hurricanes playing for their season - and struggling to beat Igor Shesterkin with any sort of consistency - Guentzel will surely get a healthy chunk of ice time Monday night. Expect him to take advantage, as he so often does versus New York.

Onto the second leg. Logan Stankoven has proven to be a reliable shot-generator. He's recorded multiple shots in 23 of 34 games, good for a 68% hit rate.

The talented youngster has taken things up a notch of late, producing two-plus shots in nine of his past 11 outings. That includes three-plus shots in each of the four meetings with the Avalanche while averaging five attempts per game.

Stankoven cleared his 1.5 line in 13 of 14 contests when attempting five shots or more. He's extremely reliable when generating this kind of volume.

Odds: +142

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon's enjoyed a ton of shooting success against the Stars, particularly in Colorado: He's recorded five shots or more in five of the past six home games against Dallas. His lone failure came in Game 1 of the series, but it wasn't for a lack of opportunity - the superstar attempted nine shots.

For perspective, MacKinnon averaged 6.7 shots and cleared five in 16 of the past 20 home games in which he attempted nine shots or more.

I think he'll repeat that success in Game 4. The Avalanche are desperate for a win to keep this series tight - and, since they know they can't match the Stars' depth, they rely heavily on their big guns to carry the load. MacKinnon's logged at least 23 in each game this series.

Win or lose, I expect MacKinnon to flirt with 25 minutes of ice while firing attempting plenty of shots to go over his shot total.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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