NFL incentives: Betting on players with plenty at stake in Week 18

Week 18 is here, the time of the season when bettors attempt to determine which players are giving it their full effort and which ones are simply trying to get to the offseason healthy.

Thankfully, some NFL players will have performance incentives added to their contracts, which helps shed some light on who is motivated during otherwise meaningless games.

Let's break down some of the most notable players with attainable contract incentives, and decide if it's a good idea to bet on the players who bet on themselves.

Jump to: Wide receiver | Running back | Tight end | Defense

Sam Darnold

Milestone: 150 passing yards and 3 passing TDs

Not only is Darnold playing for the top seed in the NFC, but he can also earn up to $1 million if he throws for at least 150 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. While it's unlikely he will be thinking about the money in this game, the 49ers are a perfect defense to attack through the air. San Francisco gives up the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and has recently conceded 24 points to the Titans, 27 to Philip Rivers' Colts, and 38 to the Bears on Sunday night.

👉 Bet on Darnold to record 3+ passing TDs here

Justin Jefferson

Milestone: 53 receiving yards

This one isn't contract-related, but Jefferson needs only 53 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for his sixth consecutive season. The Vikings play the Packers on Sunday, and Green Bay is expected to rest plenty of starters in preparation for the playoffs.

Keenan Allen

Milestone: 9 receiving yards and 6 receptions

Allen should be able to hit nine receiving yards fairly easily, but the big bonus comes if he hauls in six passes, which would trigger a $750,000 bonus. The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert in their Week 18 meeting versus the Broncos, but Trey Lance should still look Allen's way often, as he's one of the most reliable pass-catchers in the league.

Jauan Jennings

Milestone: 7 receptions

Jennings needs seven catches to cash a $666,666 bonus. He does not have a seven-reception game this season, but has seen seven or more targets in four of his past 10 outings. Jennings may fall short in his bonus hunt, but he - and the rest of the 49ers - will be heavily motivated with the division title on the line when they host the Seahawks.

👉 Bet on Jennings' receiving props here

Khalil Shakir

Milestones: 1 touchdown and 8 receptions

The Bills wideout can earn an extra $150,000 for each incentive if he scores a touchdown or has eight catches. The Bills may rest some starters in a game against the Jets that only matters for playoff seeding, so chasing Shakir's incentive may be a tad risky. However, the Bills will likely score multiple times in the first half, and Shakir could easily have his number called.

Deebo Samuel

Milestones: 93 receiving yards, 10 receptions, and 2 TDs

Samuel's milestones may be out of reach, but you can certainly be confident you will get maximum effort out of the Commanders receiver. Samuel can make over $1.5 million if he hits all three incentives. Getting 93 receiving yards feels the most attainable, which would secure a $450,000 bonus for the 29-year-old.

Sterling Shepard

Milestones: 29 receiving yards, 1 reception

This is a sneaky one. Shepard needs one reception for $125,000 and 29 receiving yards for an additional $125,000 in the Buccaneers' must-win game for the division title against the Panthers. Obviously, the Bucs' focus will be on winning the game, but they could make it a point to get Shepard a catch late in the game if they are up.

Van Jefferson

Milestone: 1 reception

To close out the wide receiver incentives, the Titans' Jefferson only needs one catch to make $100,000. He has at least one catch in 11 straight games.

Christian McCaffrey

Milestone: 110 receiving yards

McCaffrey is 110 receiving yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard mark in both rushing and receiving this season - he already has 1,179 yards on the ground in 2025. He's accomplished this feat once before in his career, becoming just the third player to do so in 2019 as a member of the Panthers. If he hits the receiving mark against the Seahawks, he'll become the only player in NFL history to record such a campaign on multiple occasions.

👉 Bet on McCaffrey's receiving props here

Saquon Barkley

Milestone: 87 total yards

Barkley can collect $500,000 versus the Commanders on Sunday with 87 total yards to hit 1,500 for the season. The Eagles are seven-point favorites, and the Commanders allow the second-most rushing yards per game (145.7).

Tony Pollard

Milestones: 66 rushing yards, 2 TDs

The Titans may have little to play for, but Pollard can earn $250,000 if he runs for 66 yards and another $250,000 if he scores twice. The Titans are big underdogs to the Jaguars, who also allow the fewest rushing yards per game (86.1), but that shouldn't discourage the Titans from trying to get their tailback paid.

Rico Dowdle

Milestones: 7 total yards, 1 touchdown

It would be a complete shock if Dowdle can't get seven rushing yards to cash a $1-million bonus, so the only incentive at stake here is the touchdown, which would pay the Panthers running back an extra $250,000.

👉 Bet on Dowdle to score a touchdown here

Hunter Henry

Milestones: 5 receptions

Henry needs five catches to secure a $250,000 incentive. The Patriots face the Dolphins, who allow the second-most catches to tight ends. Henry has caught five or more passes in two of his last five games.

Dawson Knox

Milestones: 6 receptions, 1 TD

Knox can collect $100,000 with six catches and another $100,000 with a touchdown. The Bills face the lowly Jets, but Shakir is also fighting for attention in Buffalo's passing game to reach his own incentives.

Myles Garrett

Milestone: 1 sack

Garrett is one sack shy of setting the NFL's single-season record. He was unable to get the job done against the Steelers last week, but he gets to face the Bengals' porous offensive line in Week 18.

Von Miller

Milestone: 1 sack

Miller is one sack away from a $1-million bonus. He's recorded a sack in three of his last four games. The Commanders face the Eagles on Sunday, and Jalen Hurts has been sacked 32 times this season, the 12th-most in the league.

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