NFL Saturday bets: Picks, TD scorers, player props for 2-game slate
Now that college football's regular season is over, it's that time of year when the NFL stakes its claim to Saturdays. Week 16 features two division rivalry matchups. First, the Eagles face the Commanders, followed by an intriguing Bears versus Packers showdown with the NFC North up for grabs.
Here are our picks against the spread, favorite touchdown scorer bets, and player props to target.
π Check out all of the Week 16 lines available on theScore Bet here
π Pick: Commanders (+6.5)
The Eagles crushed the lowly Raiders 31-0 last week, capitalizing on a perfect get-right spot to snap their three-game losing streak. But don't forget how horrible Philly looked for all of November.
Scoring 31 on the Raiders at home isn't anything to brag about, nor is shutting out a Kenny Pickett-led offense. The Eagles aren't very far removed from averaging 16.2 points over a five-game stretch, and it's tough to cover 6.5 points with a struggling offense.
The Commanders are not a good football team, but at least they have clarity at quarterback now that Jayden Daniels is shut down for the season. Marcus Mariota can do exactly what Kliff Kingsbury asks in this offense, and Terry McLaurin's presence has made a huge difference.
I don't expect the Commanders to win, but getting 6.5 points at home in a divisional game is too many points to pass up, especially when I'm not confident the Eagles will score much more than 20 points.
π Pick: Packers (+1.5)
The Packers and Bears met two weeks ago, when the Packers closed as 7.5-point favorites at home. Green Bay won 28-21 but has since lost Micah Parsons for the season with a torn ACL.
Let's say the correct spread for that first meeting was the Packers as 7-point favorites. When you factor in home-field advantage (roughly three points for a location switch between the same teams), that suggests the spread for this week's game should be the Packers as 4-point favorites.
However, the betting market clearly believes Parsons' absence is worth 5.5 points, which gets us the Bears as 1.5-point favorites. That seems like too drastic a shift for a defensive player. Elite quarterbacks are typically the only players who can factor that heavily into a spread. Parsons is obviously a difference-maker on defense, but this line movement seems like an overreaction.
I will happily back the Packers on the road as slight underdogs, since I believe the line should be closer to Packers (-3).
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+125)
Chicago has serious injury issues at wide receiver, with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III missing practice this week. Even if one of them plays, the Bears will rely heavily on Moore. He has four touchdowns in his last four games and leads Chicago in red-zone routes run and targets since Nov. 15.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+425)
Weβll take a swing on Green Bay's side and go with a long-shot bet. Musgrave is no Tucker Kraft, but heβs been playing well and is coming off his most productive game of the season, recording six targets and 52 receiving yards. With so much uncertainty at wide receiver for the Packers due to injuries, Musgrave should be heavily involved in their offensive game plan.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+185)
Goedert had two touchdowns last week and would've had a third if he hadn't dropped a wide-open score. He leads Philadelphia in red-zone targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns this season. Goedert has a great matchup Saturday against a Commanders defense that's allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and third-most scores to tight ends this season.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+185)
With Philly allowing the second-fewest touchdowns to wideouts this year, let's target Washington's rushing attack. Rodriguez leads the Commanders in red-zone carries in 2025 and is fully healthy after missing last week's game.
π Bet: Over 74.5 rushing yards
Letting Jalen Hurts sit back in the pocket all day is a recipe for disaster for Philly. The Eagles' offense is at its best when it leans on the run game. Even as their injured offensive line struggles, the Eagles fed Barkley the last two weeks with 22 and 20 carries for 78 and 122 rushing yards, respectively. Against the league's fifth-worst rushing defense, he should get another steady diet of touches.
π Bet: Over 58.5 receiving yards
Although Smith's had a relatively quiet few weeks, he remains the Eagles' best deep-ball threat, and the Commanders' fourth-worst passing defense is susceptible to long shots downfield. Smith is averaging 63.5 receiving yards per game and is due for another big outing.
π Bet: Over 32.5 pass attempts
Williams has attempted at least 32 passes in seven of his last eight games. The only time he didn't was last week when the Bears decimated the Browns 31-3 (and he still somehow threw 28 passes). Chicago has relied on Williams' arm more throughout the season as he continues to develop as a passer. Without Parsons, the Packers' pass rush won't be as dangerous, which should help Williams throw from a clean pocket.
π Bet: Over 69.5 rushing yards
Jacobs ran for 86 yards against the Bears two weeks ago. As good as Jordan Love has been, Chicago has a bottom-third rushing defense. The Packers will feed Jacobs and exploit the Bears' run defense. Jacobs has rushed for over 70 yards the last three weeks, and Love's stellar play has opened up the ground game even further.
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