NFL Week 8 picks: Will Lamar's return spark Ravens turnaround?
A 9-6 overall record for Week 7 is exactly what I needed to turn this season of picks around. Going 2-1 on five-star plays, and 4-1 if you include my two four-star selections, made for a profitable week that we can use as momentum into the campaign's second half.
Let's dive into the Week 9 Sunday slate and make sure the saying "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while" doesn't apply.
π Check out all of the Week 8 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Jump to: Late Slate
π Pick: Bengals (-6.5)
Poor Jets fan. They've had some rough times in recent seasons, but this may be rock bottom. There isn't a single positive thing to say about New York, which makes this team impossible to back against a spread of less than a touchdown.
Joe Flacco turned back the clock in the Bengals' Thursday night meeting against the Steelers. He threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, leading Cincinnati to a game-winning drive. Although the Jets' defense is better than the Steelers, Flacco should be able to deliver the ball to his two star receivers.
The Bengals' defense is bad, but New York will likely struggle to exploit it. While Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade over Justin Fields, the result will still be a disappointment.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Panthers (+7.5)
The Bills didn't look impressive in the four outings prior to their Week 7 bye. Buffalo failed to cover against the lowly Dolphins and Saints and then lost to the Patriots and Falcons. Perhaps they just needed some extra time off, but I'll need to see the Bills perform better before backing them by more than a touchdown on the road.
The Panthers will start Andy Dalton at quarterback, who has plenty of experience operating Dave Canales' offense. You could argue Dalton is an upgrade over the current version of Bryce Young.
Carolina is 4-1 over its past five games, including 3-0 at home. The Panthers are a tougher team to beat than everyone expected at the beginning of the season, and they should hang around at home against an underachieving Bills team.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: 49ers (+2.5)
Somehow, someway, the 49ers continue to win games despite being riddled with injuries. But there's something to be said about a resilient team that's well-coached, and that's precisely what the 49ers are. Mac Jones has done a great job in Brock Purdy's absence and will get the nod again. Christian McCaffrey is also playing at an elite level and single-handedly carried San Francisco to a victory over the Falcons last week.
It's hard to know who the Texans are this year. Their two victories are over the Titans and a Cooper Rush-led Ravens squad. They also gave up three sacks to the Seahawks in their previous outing, continuing their struggles to keep C.J. Stroud upright.
This should be a lower-scoring affair, and the 49ers feel better equipped to win tighter battles. San Francisco has the advantage on offense and a better coach, so I'll take it as a slight dog on the road.
Confidence level: β β βββ
π Pick: Giants (+7.5)
The Giants and Eagles played each other two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football, with Philadelphia losing 34-17 on the road as a 7.5-point favorite. Not a ton has changed since. The Eagles beat the Vikings in Minnesota last week, while the Giants played well but gave away a victory in Denver.
The spread two weeks ago was wrong, and I don't think it's adjusted enough to consider laying more than a touchdown on Philly. Yes, Jalen Carter will be manning the heart of the Eagles' defensive line after missing this meeting two weeks ago, but does an interior lineman make that much of a difference to the spread? I guess we'll see.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Patriots (-6.5)
The Patriots continue to roll through their competition and appear destined to make the playoffs with a weak lineup of opponents remaining on their schedule. They took care of the Titans last week and return home to face the Browns.
Cleveland posted 31 points on the Dolphins in their most recent matchup, but few teams give up as many points as Miami. The result was the first time the Browns had scored more than 20 points in a game all season.
Drake Maye is playing outstanding and should score enough to cover 6.5 points.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Ravens (-6.5)
There isn't a more desperate team in the NFL than the Ravens. At 1-5, they pretty much need to run the table to make the playoffs and salvage a year of Lamar Jackson's prime.
Thankfully for Baltimore, Jackson appears ready to return this week after missing two games. With their season likely on the line, you know it'll be all systems go for the Ravens against the Bears.
Chicago has rattled off four straight wins, a difficult feat in today's NFL. But none of those wins were overly impressive, including a one-point squeaker over the Commanders, who are far from the team they were last campaign.
This is just a bad spot for the Bears. Baltimore knows the importance of each game from here on out, and Chicago will be its first victim.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Dolphins (+7.5)
The Dolphins are horrible, but I'm not at the point where I can trust the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown.
Atlanta had a great opportunity to go into San Francisco last week and assert itself as a real threat in the NFC. Instead, it scored 10 points and dropped to 3-3. The Falcons have shown they can beat the Bills, but they can also lose to the Panthers by 30. That level of inconsistency makes them hard to back.
Miami's players have nothing to play for aside from the name on their backs. Some may be looking to get traded ahead of the Nov. 4 deadline, while others will be fighting for a job. Either way, the Dolphins should give a good enough effort to keep this one within seven points.
Confidence level: β ββββ
π Check out all of the Week 8 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
π Pick: Buccaneers (-3.5)
I gave a warning ahead of the Buccaneers' Monday night game that I couldn't figure them out. I took them to cover the 5.5-point spread against the Lions, and was wrong ... again.
But maybe this is the week! Laying only 4.5 points to New Orleans seems like a number Baker Mayfield can cover. The Saints continue to lose by substantial margins every week. The only time they haven't lost by five or more points was when they beat the Giants at home in Week 5.
The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries on offense (Mike Evans and Bucky Irving are out), but Mayfield has proven he can produce without a full arsenal.
Confidence level: β β β ββ
π Pick: Broncos (-3.5)
The Broncos pulled off a miracle comeback last week, scoring 33 fourth-quarter points to erase a 19-0 deficit. While Denver didn't cover against the Giants, it showed a ton of fight.
The Cowboys want to play high-scoring affairs, which is the only chance they've got because of their terrible defense. But lighting up the scoreboard will be difficult against a Broncos defense that's allowing the fourth fewest points in the league.
This is a bad matchup for Dallas on both sides of the ball. Either the Broncos' offense or defense would have to lay an egg for this game to remain close, and I don't see that happening.
Confidence level: β β β β β
π Pick: Titans (+14.5)
The Colts are a true threat in the AFC, and the Titans are a threat to draft first overall for the second straight year. Still, 14.5 points is a lot to lay in a division game.
Perhaps this pick will look ridiculous when the final whistle blows, especially since Indy walked away with a 21-point victory on the road when these teams met in Week 3. However, I'd expect the Titans to be up for this matchup, while the Colts could let their foot off the gas a bit in what they'll perceive as an easy win.
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