NFL Week 1 picks: Will Lions rain on Packers' early-season parade?

The first Sunday slate of the NFL season is here - arguably the best day on the entire sports calendar. After months of offseason speculation and preseason buzz, it's finally time to play some meaningful football.

We'll make a pick for every game this season to help you make decisions for your weekly NFL betting. All prime-time matchups will have standalone previews, as will our weekly lineup of player props.

🏈 Check out all of the Week 1 NFL lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late Slate

🏈 Pick: Patriots (-2.5)

Both teams enter the year with a new head coach - Mike Vrabel in New England and Pete Carroll in Las Vegas - and a new sense of optimism. The Raiders added Geno Smith and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty to excite fans about the offense's potential. For the Patriots, Drake Maye will look to build on the strong finish to his rookie season, complemented by the arrival of running back TreVeyon Henderson, who the club selected with the 38th overall pick.

There are just too many unknowns with Vegas to feel confident backing it on the road in what should be a tough environment. How well has Smith acclimated to a new offense? Is Jeanty a true difference-maker in the backfield? Do the Raiders have any pass-catching weapons outside of Brock Bowers?

Expect Vrabel to have New England ready to go on both sides of the field in what's a homecoming for the former Patriots linebacker.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Steelers (-2.5)

Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields will face off against their former teams in Week 1 after swapping spots in the offseason. The Steelers should be a borderline playoff squad, while the Jets could be picking first overall in next year's draft.

New York's fans won't make life easy for Rodgers, but the Steelers are the superior team, and 2.5 points isn't enough to consider backing the Jets.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Colts (-1.5)

There's little to be excited about with Miami and Indianapolis this season. Both teams are stuck in limbo, boasting some talent but falling well short of being Super Bowl contenders.

Mike McDaniel may be coaching for his job, and perhaps that sparks some life into the Dolphins. However, their defense projects to be one of the league's worst. If Miami's offense isn't scoring close to 30 points a game, McDaniel could be out of a gig sooner rather than later.

And if new Colts quarterback Daniel Jones can at least be competent under center (yes, that's a big if) Sunday, Indy should be able to score enough points and let its defense do most of the heavy lifting.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bengals (-5.5)

The Bengals have been a notoriously slow-starting team, but they changed their philosophy toward preseason games this year. Joe Burrow and the starters played in two tune-up contests, which may have been exactly what they needed to work out early-season kinks and be ready for Week 1.

On the other hand, the Browns' offense lacks the firepower necessary to take advantage of the Bengals' suspect defense, and Cleveland will need every point it can get to keep pace with Burrow and Co.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Giants (+5.5)

Expectations are sky high in Washington after last year's shocking rookie season from Jayden Daniels. The Commanders are now considered one of the NFC's top teams, while the Giants, with Russell Wilson under center, have a win total of 5.5.

But you can expect New York to show up for this divisional matchup. The Giants' defensive line may be the best in the league, and even though the Commanders improved their offensive line, it may not be able to handle the onslaught of pressure from rookie Abdul Carter, Dexter Lawrence II, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Washington should win, but New York will at least keep it close.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (-3.5)

For a club that won only four games last year, hopes are high for the Jaguars heading into 2025. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is healthy, rookie Travis Hunter could start on both sides of the ball, and head coach Liam Coen is widely believed to be a massive upgrade over Doug Pederson.

Despite Bryce Young's strides late last season, the Panthers remain a flawed team. The Jaguars' expected improvements are enough to lay 3.5 points at home.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Falcons (+1.5)

The Falcons went 2-0 against the Buccaneers last season and are poised to improve on both sides of the ball in 2025. They added news pieces on defense, including 15th overall pick Jalon Walker, and Michael Penix should be able to lead a more dynamic offense than Kirk Cousins did.

The Buccaneers are the favorites to win the NFC South, but the gap between them and the rest of the division is narrowing. The Falcons are their stiffest competition and could win this game outright, so getting 1.5 points at home is some nice insurance.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Saints (+6.5)

Although the Saints are expected to be the NFL's worst team, it remains unclear how poorly they'll actually perform. We also don't know if the Cardinals are deserving of being nearly touchdown favorites on the road.

The Saints still have solid skill-position players on offense, and with Spencer Rattler gaining valuable experience in seven games last season, their quarterback play should at least be more reliable. It doesn't feel great, but taking the big home underdog in Week 1 is the way to play one.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Check out all of the Week 1 NFL lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: 49ers (-1.5)

This game is similar to the handicapping of the Steelers-Jets contest. The 49ers are believed to be the better squad right now, yet they're only being asked to win by two points. The Seattle crowd is always a problem, and it would be beneficial to know if Christian McCaffrey is 100% healthy, but the 49ers shouldn't have any issues winning this matchup.

Sam Darnold will make his first start as a Seahawk behind a suspect offensive line. He's never managed a pass rush well in his career, which will have Nick Bosa licking his chops.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Broncos (-8.5)

The Broncos are sure to be a popular pick in survivor pools, and with good reason. Cam Ward will make his NFL debut against a Broncos defense that was considered the best in the league last year, which is about as tough an opening game as you could draw up.

Ward may surprise this season, but it's hard to imagine him thriving Week 1 in Denver. If the Broncos' offense was below average, laying 8.5 points would be difficult. But Bo Nix led an offense that was tied for ninth in touchdowns scored last season and should be effective enough to cover the number.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Packers (-1.5)

The hype around Green Bay is at an all-time high after it acquired Micah Parsons from the Cowboys. But the Lions are still the better all-around squad and should have a better season, which makes this a tough wager to feel comfortable with.

The Packers are 33-20 ATS at home since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019. Backing Green Bay to win by 1.5 points at Lambeau while the fan base is buzzing about the Parsons deal feels like the right side to play.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Texans (+3.5)

Houston might have the best defense in football, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter wreaking havoc in the backfield and Derek Stingley acting as a shutdown corner. Although the Rams say Matthew Stafford is healthy, one hit to his recently treated back could force Jimmy Garoppolo into the game.

Despite the Texans facing offensive line concerns of their own and Rams linebacker Jared Verse being one of the league's best pass-rushers, C.J. Stroud should be able to put up enough points to keep pace with - or even beat - the Rams.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

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