NFL MVP betting: Are there viable candidates outside the top 5 favorites?

We've covered the Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year awards in our lead-up to the 2025 NFL season. Now, it's time to focus on the MVP award and see who has the best chance to win the league's top honor.

MVP odds

🏈 Check out the full set of MVP odds from ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Top 5 favorites

The combined odds of the top five favorites imply a 70% chance that the MVP will be one of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Jayden Daniels. A quarterback has won this award for 12 consecutive seasons and 17 of the last 18, so it makes sense that the top signal-callers are soaking up so much of the implied win probability.

Lamar Jackson (+450)

Jackson threw for 41 touchdowns last season, 17 more than the year prior and five more than his previous career high. He also threw for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career and added 915 on the ground. Despite achieving multiple personal bests, he still finished second in MVP voting to Allen.

It's safe to expect some regression from Jackson in 2025. That's not to say he can't put together another season of MVP-caliber numbers. However, in order to capture the award, he'll need another year of jaw-dropping stats while no other quarterbacks have exceptional seasons.

Jackson would become just the fifth player to receive the honor three times if he wins, but it's notable that he's already the only player with at least two MVP awards and no Super Bowl victories. Perhaps voters are waiting for Jackson to get a ring before they're willing to hand him another MVP trophy.

Joe Burrow (+600)

Burrow has yet to win an MVP award despite being a perennial favorite. He led the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43) last season, but the Bengals only mustered a 9-8 record, which kept Burrow out of the award conversation.

The Bengals must improve this year for Burrow to have a chance. They reached a much-needed agreement with star defensive end Trey Hendrickson, but there's still plenty to be concerned about with their defense. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown are expected to move the ball with ease and score a ton of points. Fairly or not, however, Burrow's MVP case will come down to the team's defense, which will play a huge role in how many games Cincinnati wins. The Bengals' current win total is 9.5, with their odds of edging out Jackson's Ravens for the AFC North title set at +260.

Josh Allen (+650)

Allen is the reigning MVP after narrowly beating Jackson in voting. The Bills' quarterback was sensational in 2024, leading Buffalo to a 13-4 record while passing for 28 touchdowns and scoring another 12 on the ground. The Bills exceeded expectations, which certainly played a role in Allen getting the trophy.

Winning consecutive MVPs isn't unheard of - Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Joe Montana have all done so since 1990. The question is whether Allen can perform better than last season, since the Bills are expected to contend for the top seed in the AFC. Anything short of that will likely scuttle his MVP case.

Patrick Mahomes (+650)

Mahomes is a two-time MVP but hasn't won since 2022 (his first was in 2018). A major reason he's not the favorite is that the Chiefs no longer need him to play at an MVP level during the regular season. Kansas City has mastered the art of coasting through the 17-game schedule while putting up double-digit wins, staying relatively healthy, and saving itself for a playoff run. Mahomes posted career lows in passing yards and passing touchdowns last season, and the Chiefs still won 15 games.

Perhaps the Chiefs change their philosophy, or their defense isn't as good, or maybe the Chargers or Broncos give them a run for the division title. All of these scenarios would give Mahomes cause to open the throttle during the regular season and put up MVP-type numbers. But is that risk worth taking at +650?

Jayden Daniels (+750)

Lofty expectations - like being an MVP favorite - are being heaped onto Daniels in his second NFL season. The face of the Commanders had one of the best rookie seasons from a quarterback ever and led Washington to the NFC Championship Game.

But Daniels would have to best his rookie numbers to put himself in the running for this award. C.J. Stroud succumbed to the sophomore slump last year, and Daniels is also more likely to take a step back in Year 2 than improve. The Commanders bolstered their offensive line and took a chance on Deebo Samuel to help Daniels in his second year, but trusting the quarterback to become MVP in his second season is far too much to ask at +750.

MVP bets

Justin Herbert (+1800)

We'll bypass the five favorites and take the value Herbert presents at +1800.

When the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh ahead of last season, the team was expected to ask less of its quarterback. That proved largely correct: Herbert attempted 504 passes compared to 699 and 672 in the previous two years he played all 17 games. However, he still threw for 3,870 yards, had the best touchdown-to-interception ratio of his career, and recorded a career-best 101.7 passer rating.

If Herbert can continue to improve in his second year under Harbaugh, he's got a chance to increase his production across the board. He also has plenty of weapons. Ladd McConkey emerged as a true No. 1 receiver last season, and the Chargers brought back Herbert's former safety blanket in the slot, Keenan Allen. They also added a true workhorse back by drafting Omarion Hampton.

The Chargers are +325 to win the AFC West, and dethroning the Chiefs would undoubtedly boost Herbert's MVP resume. If they win their division, there's a decent chance they'd also be the top seed in the AFC. A lot would have to go right for Herbert to win MVP, but there are also enough paths to that outcome to make his +1800 price tag worth a shot.

Trevor Lawrence (+5000)

Before you get your pitchforks out, this bet on Lawrence is about value. It's reasonable to believe he's named MVP once in 50 iterations of the 2025 season.

While it may seem like there's a lot of hype surrounding the Jaguars thanks to Brian Thomas Jr.'s rookie season and the addition of Travis Hunter, expectations remain low. Jacksonville's win total is 7.5, so the betting market is projecting them to be a borderline .500 team.

With that in mind, Lawrence's route to exceed expectations and win the MVP becomes clearer. The Jaguars would have to win the division (they are +300 to win the AFC South) and win at least 11 games (+550 to win 11 or more), while Lawrence would likely have to throw for at least 4,500 yards (+425) and at least 30 touchdowns (+425). The outcomes of these bets are all correlated with Lawrence winning the MVP, and none of them is nearly as long as +5000.

Liam Coen, the new man in charge in Jacksonville, is a year removed from leading Baker Mayfield to career highs in passing yards (4,500) and passing touchdowns (41). If Coen can be the first coach to extract Lawrence's true potential (something the Jaguars' previous two coaches failed to do), there's a chance Lawrence takes a huge leap and finally lives up to his draft-day hype.

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