NFL Week 3 betting primer: Spreads, insights, notes for all 16 games

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Underdogs are having a moment in the NFL: They went 11-5 against the spread and eight won outright last week, while underdogs of six or more points are 8-0 against the spread this season. The largest underdog won outright in Weeks 1 and 2. The Commanders are Week 3's biggest 'dogs - their opponents, the Bengals, come in as 7.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football.

Because of unpredictability and parity across the league, there have been no double-digit favorites through three weeks.

Poor quarterback play and insufficient offensive production are also leading to lower point totals than we've seen in previous seasons. Keep these tendencies in mind when filtering through Week 3's slate.

Thursday Night Football

• The Patriots have defeated the Jets in 15 of their last 16 meetings, but these franchises are trending in opposite directions. Although the Pats look feisty, Aaron Rodgers earned his first official win (and cover) against the Titans on Sunday. This is also the Jets' third game in 11 days.

Sunday 1 p.m ET slate

• The Eagles were three-point favorites when this line opened. The line flipped to Saints -2.5 after the Eagles' Monday Night Football collapse.

• New Orleans is the NFL's hottest team, scoring 91 points through two games.

• Philadelphia can't stop the run, and Alvin Kamara has dominated on the ground for the Saints. His rushing yards total is 65.5.

• The Giants have scored the league's second-fewest points (24). In their Week 2 defeat to the Commanders, they became the second team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, allow none, and still lose.

• New York is 0-2 against the spread with both games going under the total. The team has the league's fifth-worst run defense.

• Malik Willis did just enough in Jordan Love's absence to carry the Packers to an upset win over the Colts last week: He completed 12 of 14 passes and threw for 122 yards. There's a chance Love could return from injury this week, leaving oddsmakers in limbo with the line.

• The Titans have allowed the NFL's fewest yards, but their offense can't keep pace. Quarterback Will Levis has struggled: He has two picks on the campaign and has yet to throw for 200 yards. His passing yards total is 197.5, which he hasn't reached, and he's -140 to throw a pick.

• The Colts are off to an 0-2 start, and their defense allows the most rushing yards per game. Bears running back D'Andre Swift's rushing yards total is 52.5.

• Chicago is 1-1 on the season and 2-0 against the spread, but Caleb Williams has yet to impress, totaling 267 passing yards and two picks. He's yet to break 200 passing yards in a game, but his prop against Indianapolis is 207.5.

• Anthony Richardson's passing yards prop is 182.5. He's thrown for 204 and 212 yards in two games, but the Bears have limited quarterbacks to 169.5 passing yards per game.

• The Vikings are 2-0 with Sam Darnold under center, including an upset win over the 49ers. After throwing for 268 yards last week, his passing yards total is 231.5 against the 2-0 Texans. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud's is 263.5.

• Bo Nix's struggles have left the Broncos in a 0-2 hole, while Baker Mayfield's career rejuvenation has the Bucs at 2-0.

• Nix has attempted the third-most passes (77) of any quarterback but has thrown for less than 400 total yards. He's also tied for the most interceptions thrown (4). The rookie is -180 to throw a pick, while his passing attempts prop is 30.5 and his passing yards prop is 183.5.

• The NFL's two best defenses squaring off resulted in the weekend's lowest total at 36. The Chargers and Steelers have allowed 13 and 16 points, respectively.

• The Steelers have a top-five rushing defense, but the Chargers have run for the league's second-most yards. J.K. Dobbins is responsible for 135 yards in Week 1 and 131 in Week 2. His rushing total against the Steelers is 50.5.

Sunday 4 p.m ET slate

• The Seahawks opened as 7-point favorites, but the line has moved in the Dolphins' favor to Seattle -4.

• Skylar Thompson replaces Tua Tagovailoa, who's out indefinitely with a concussion. Thompson's passing yards prop is 193.5.

• As a result of the change under center, Tyreek Hill's receiving yards prop is down to 65.5, significantly lower than usual. Hill averaged 48.5 yards in the four games Thompson attempted at least 20 throws in 2022.

• The Panthers benched Bryce Young two games into the season, awarding Andy Dalton the start. The latter's passing yards total is 210.5.

• The Raiders are coming off a huge upset win over the Ravens. This could be a letdown spot for Las Vegas if Carolina gets a boost from its backup quarterback.

• The Ravens and Cowboys both fell apart in embarrassing losses last Sunday. Baltimore is surprisingly 0-2 and has to travel to Dallas, while the Cowboys were unstoppable at home until last week's debacle against the Saints. This could be the game of the week between two desperate teams.

• The injury bug hit the Rams early. Key pieces to their offensive line are out, along with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. At 0-2, things might keep getting ugly for Los Angeles and its decimated offense.

• 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey is also out. Jordan Mason stepped into the backfield with solid production, rushing for 147 yards and 100 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. His rushing prop for Week 3's NFC West clash is 89.5.

• This is the week's highest total. It's a matchup between two explosive offenses with weapons everywhere.

• Kyler Murray has a case as the league's most underrated quarterback while Jared Goff looks to bounce back after a two-interception loss to the Bucs last Sunday. Marvin Harrison Jr. responded to a quiet one-catch debut with a 130-yard outing in Week 2. His receiving yards total is 62.5 against Detroit.

Sunday Night Football

• The Chiefs are 2-0 after opening their season against the Ravens and Bengals. The Falcons are 1-1 after stealing a win from Philadelphia despite Kirk Cousins' inconsistency until the final drive.

• Travis Kelce isn't the unstoppable tight end he once was. He's only caught four passes for 39 yards and has zero touchdowns. His receptions prop is down to 4.5 and his yards prop is 48.5. He's +130 to find the endzone.

Monday Night Football

• Doug Pederson's days in Jacksonville are numbered if the Jaguars drop to 0-3. Meanwhile, the Bills' offense hasn't missed a beat without Stefon Diggs, relying on Josh Allen's brilliance and a steady running game with James Cook.

• The Bengals are desperate after a close loss to the Chiefs put them to 0-2, but Cincinnati's offense showed its potential in Week 2. Washington defeated the lowly Giants last week even without scoring a touchdown. Jayden Daniels is a terrific runner but struggles as a passer, hindering the Commanders' offense. His passing yards total is 199.5, and his rushing yards total is 49.5.