Dolphins' odds plunge following Thursday Night Football debacle
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The Dolphins clearly have a Bills problem after Buffalo dominated on Thursday Night Football to win its fifth straight over Miami. But the Dolphins also have another problem.
With the game already out of reach, Tua Tagovailoa took off on fourth down and collided with Damar Hamlin. Tagovailoa suffered a concussion from the hit, his third diagnosed since he entered the league.
The timeline for his recovery is unknown, but his concussion history creates a murky immediate and long-term future for Tagovailoa and Miami. Oddsmakers are reacting.
The Dolphins dipped from +2000 to win the Super Bowl before the season to +3500 after Thursday night's contest. They also went from +1000 to win the AFC to +1600. The Bills were the preseason favorite to win the AFC East at +130, but Miami slightly trailed at +185. Now, Buffalo is even money, the Jets have the second-best odds at +185, and the Dolphins are +400. Finally, the Dolphins were -170 to make the playoffs and are now -110.
Miami's stock took a tremendous hit in a consequential Week 2 loss. Investors know to buy a dip when there's a strong belief in personnel. The Dolphins aren't worth the investment with Tagovailoa's future in question. He started the season at +2200 to win MVP, and that's lengthened to +5000 since Thursday night.
Skylar Thompson will replace Tagovailoa. Thompson started two regular-season games and one playoff contest when Tagovailoa dealt with a concussion during the 2022 season. He went 1-2, including a playoff loss to the Bills.
As poor as Tagovailoa played Thursday night before his concussion, Thompson isn't Tagovailoa and can't make the throws the NFL's Week 1 passing leader can. Thompson will benefit from playing alongside unstoppable weapons, but Miami's receivers' production will suffer without Tagovailoa.
Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving yards last season. He was the preseason favorite to earn the top spot again. However, that changed with a poor Thursday performance and the strong likelihood Tagovailoa won't deliver him passes in the coming weeks. Cooper Kupp and CeeDee Lamb jumped Hill on the oddsboard.
Hill only had three receptions for 24 yards against Buffalo, continuing his career-long struggles against the Bills. The superstar wideout averaged 48.5 yards in the four games Thompson attempted at least 20 throws in 2022.
Miami's next few matchups are against the Seahawks, Titans, Patriots, and Colts with a bye sandwiched between the Patriots and the Colts. If Tagovailoa returns and Thompson can weather the storm against mediocre competition, the Dolphins can flip their fortune and still compete in a competitive division and conference. But Tagovailoa has more to worry about than Miami's playoff chances.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.