NFL futures: Biggest odds shifts in MVP, OPOY markets after 1 game
While one game in the NFL may not seem like much, it's nearly 6% of the season. That's the equivalent of almost five regular-season NBA games or 10 MLB contests.
It's easy to overreact to one game, but it's warranted sometimes, especially in the betting markets. Injuries or unexpected role changes can drastically shift potential outcomes and future player performances.
After only one week of the campaign, let's look at some of the biggest moves in two key futures markets.
MVP
| Player | Current Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +375 | +475 |
| Josh Allen | +550 | +1000 |
| C.J. Stroud | +850 | +850 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1100 | +1300 |
| Brock Purdy | +1600 | +1600 |
| Joe Burrow | +1600 | +900 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 | +2000 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 | +2200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1800 | +2500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2200 | +2000 |
| Anthony Richardson | +3500 | +3000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +3500 | +3000 |
| Justin Herbert | +4000 | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +4000 | +3000 |
Josh Allen was the top mover up the MVP oddsboard, vaulting from +1000 to +550 and becoming the second favorite behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another pair of scores in the Bills' 34-28 victory over the Cardinals. The odds shift for Allen represents an implied probability increase from 9.1% to 15.4%.
Joe Burrow's odds took the biggest hit after a tough opening-week loss to the Patriots. Ja'Marr Chase skipping training camp due to a contract dispute and Tee Higgins unexpectedly missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury didn't help Burrow's chances Sunday. The Bengals are notoriously slow starters, so perhaps there's value in backing Burrow in hopes Cinncinati turns it around.
There was minimal movement elsewhere aside from Justin Herbert, who lengthened to +4000 after it became obvious Jim Harbaugh brought a run-first scheme to the Chargers offense. Herbert attempted only 26 passes, the third-lowest total of his career.
Offensive Player of the Year
| Player | Current Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | +500 | +700 |
| Saquon Barkley | +800 | +1500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1000 | +850 |
| Justin Jefferson | +1200 | +1200 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +1400 | +1000 |
| Bijan Robinson | +1500 | +1600 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1600 | +1000 |
| Breece Hall | +1800 | +1600 |
| A.J. Brown | +2000 | +3000 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +2000 | +1800 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2000 | +6000 |
| Garrett Wilson | +2000 | +2500 |
| Josh Allen | +2500 | +4000 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +3000 | +3000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3000 | +3000 |
Favorite Tyreek Hill's odds shortened slightly atop the OPOY oddsboard, but Cooper Kupp made the biggest move.
The Rams wideout hauled in 14 of his whopping 21 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. It was a vintage Kupp performance, the type of game that led him to the OPOY award in 2021.
Kupp should continue to see a heavy workload with Puka Nacua suffering a knee ailment and hitting the injury report, forcing him to miss at least four games. Kupp's odds could be cut in half after Week 2 if he replicates his Week 1 stat line.
Saquon Barkley also shot up the oddsboard after his three-touchdown debut with the Eagles. He appears to be heavily involved in Philadelphia's potent offense and should be in the mix to lead the NFL in touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey's odds lengthened a bit after the 49ers made him a late inactive ahead of Monday night's game against the Jets. He could also reportedly sit out Week 2.