What the odds say: Are Commanders leaning toward picking Daniels at No. 2?
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The NFL offseason is buzzing. Star players are switching teams left and right and the draft is quickly approaching, which will surely pour more gasoline onto the fire.
The Bears hold the No. 1 pick and are presumed to take Caleb Williams - he's the -1600 favorite (94.1% implied probability) at theScore Bet to be the first overall selection. However, they have yet to trade Justin Fields, so there's still a chance Chicago deals the coveted top pick.
With oddsmakers all but locking in Williams at No. 1, the second overall pick held by the Commanders becomes the more interesting discussion.
North Carolina's Drake Maye was long considered the second-best quarterback in the draft. His odds of being picked at No. 2 were as short as -180 in mid-February.
However, recent line movement suggests Washington is leaning toward drafting Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. The former LSU Tiger is now the odds-on favorite at -170 (63% implied probability) to be the second overall pick as Maye's odds lengthen to +140.
The Commanders' string of offseason moves is likely the reason for the drastic line movement.
First, they hired Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator. Some believed this was a preemptive move in an attempt to acquire the top pick from the Bears since Kingsbury worked with Williams at USC. But Kingsbury also has a history of working with mobile rookie quarterbacks. He spent four years with Kyler Murray as head coach of the Cardinals.
Washington then signed veteran Marcus Mariota, who - as Daniels could become - is a former Heisman winner and second overall pick. Mariota spent last season as the Eagles' backup to Jalen Hurts, another young, mobile quarterback, and would be a suitable mentor for Daniels if the Commanders go that direction.
Before the signing of Mariota, Daniels' odds of being selected at No. 2 were -110.
Finally, the Commanders traded last year's starter, Sam Howell, to the Seahawks, paving the way for a newcomer to take over under center. Howell was a former college teammate of Maye's, and some believed the two could reunite in Washington.
Regardless of what the Commanders decide, oddsmakers don't believe Daniels nor Maye will slip past the quarterback-needy Patriots at No. 3. Maye is even money to be taken third and Daniels is +115, which combines for an implied probability of 96.5%.