NFL Week 13 O/U best bets: Colts will run roughshod on struggling Texans
Our winning run was snapped in Week 12 with a 1-2 mark, but we've still posted a winning record in four of the last six weeks entering a busy slate.
Few teams have been more consistently incompetent on offense than the Bears, who rank 29th in points per contest (16.3) and are yet to score more than 27 points in a game this season. Lousy quarterback play has been a major reason why, and that isn't likely to change with Justin Fields still uncertain to play Sunday.
Andy Dalton helped lead Chicago to a whopping 16 points against the lowly Lions on Thanksgiving Day. But whoever captains this Bears offense will be hard-pressed to find much ground against the Cardinals, who've quietly posted top-five marks in average points allowed (18.4) and yards allowed (317.8).
Arizona could welcome back Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in this one, but expecting either to get this to the over immediately after a lengthy absence is a risky move, especially against a Chicago team with an 8-3 record to the under thus far.
Pick: Under 45.5
A week after running roughshod on the Bills in one of the more surprising blowouts of the season, the Colts came back down to earth Sunday in a home loss to the Buccaneers. Offense wasn't the problem, though: Both sides combined for 69 points and nearly 800 yards of offense despite turning the ball over a whopping seven times.
Much of that was bad fumble luck for Indy, which should normalize this week in a juicy matchup for Jonathan Taylor and this run-heavy offense. The Texans' defense ranks 25th in rush DVOA and was gashed for 174 yards on the ground the last time these two played in the Colts' 31-3 win back in Week 6.
Houston's offense should have a better showing this time around with veteran Tyrod Taylor replacing rookie Davis Mills. Taylor hasn't been all that sharp in his return from injury, but expect him to bounce back against a vulnerable Indianapolis secondary Sunday. And if he doesn't? The Colts own the NFL's best record to the over (8-4) and might push this one over on their own.
Pick: Over 45.5
Everything about this matchup screams under to me, which isn't something I thought I'd ever say about a game featuring Patrick Mahomes. That's the reality for these Chiefs, who've gone under in five of their last six games behind a surprising defensive resurgence.
The difference has been this team's ability to pressure the quarterback. From Weeks 1-7, Kansas City combined for eight sacks and recorded a multi-sack game just twice. In four weeks since, the Chiefs have registered a whopping 11 sacks and held all four opponents below 250 passing yards, with three of those contests finishing comfortably under.
The Broncos' defense finally looks to be capitalizing on the high hopes it had entering the season, holding four of its last five opponents to 17 or fewer points after a dominant display last week against the Chargers. Yes, it's always scary fading Mahomes, but it's riskier to bet against these two defenses with the way they've played as of late.
Pick: Under 47