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The ninth-year star is the clear favorite for the award (+220) amid his record-breaking start for undefeated Seattle. Wilson has thrown 14 touchdown passes this year, the most by a quarterback in NFL history through three games, and he became the only signal-caller to record at least four touchdown passes in each of his team's first three contests after tossing five in Sunday's 38-31 win over the Cowboys.
In 2019, Wilson's best case for MVP was his absurd 31:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which was the fourth-best all time. This year, it's even better; he's upped his touchdown rate from 6% to a whopping 13.6% while keeping his interception rate at 1%, tied for the lowest in his career. He's also pacing the league in virtually every other area.
Wilson's adjusted completion percentage - which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted balls, and hits - is 90.5%, per PFF, easily the best in the league among starters. His passer rating on deep passes (149.3) is the best among players with more than five such attempts, while his passer rating under pressure (139.8) and with no pressure (135.3) are both No. 1 among full-time starters. In short, he can't be stopped no matter what defenses throw at him.
If you spent even five minutes on Twitter this past Sunday, you were surely swept up in the avalanche of "Wilson has never received an MVP vote" hoopla. It's not a fair critique - Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) were easy choices who coincided with Wilson's rise to superstardom - but it'll be hard to deny him a vote even if his torrid pace slows the rest of the year.
That narrative is one reason why he was such a good MVP value before the year, and why he's still one now. Wilson's easily the best active quarterback not to win the award; he might be the best active quarterback, period. And without a shiny new option to siphon away attention, that narrative - coupled with his sensational play - should be enough to serve Wilson his first MVP award on a silver platter.
Here is the full oddsboard after Week 3 (50-1 or shorter) with a few other noteworthy names outside of Wilson:
It was hard to watch Mahomes' performance Monday night - when he combined for 411 yards and five touchdowns against an elite Ravens defense - and not feel like you were watching the best player in football. His QBR (92.3) is the highest in the NFL this year, and he has the most total touchdowns (10) without an interception of any quarterback.
Still, voter fatigue is real, and Wilson will take this award over Mahomes if their cases are similar. The Chiefs quarterback is also competing against his 2018 MVP season, which was arguably more impressive than his current pace. Mahomes could easily win, but stay away from him at this price.
Rodgers always seems to find himself in this conversation through the first few weeks, and he's here again after leading the Packers to 122 points through three games - the fifth-most by any team in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky. To his credit, Rodgers has thrown for 887 yards and nine touchdowns with no picks, and his 90.9 QBR ranks only behind Mahomes.
Green Bay's schedule is fairly manageable the rest of the way, which leaves open the possibility of back-to-back 13-win seasons with eye-popping stats for the former two-time MVP winner. Again, any bet against Wilson is asking for trouble, but Rodgers' odds are as good as anyone's.
The only player who can rival Wilson's counting stats is Allen, who has made a tremendous leap as a passer from 2019 to 2020. He's the only player in the NFL ranked in the top two in passing yards (1,038), passing touchdowns (10), and passer rating (124.8), and he's added 84 yards and two scores on the ground.
His Bills are also 3-0 after Sunday's wild last-second victory over the Rams, though the schedule gets tougher with home games against the Chiefs, Patriots, and Seahawks over the next six weeks. If Allen can survive even two of those contests with a win and an impressive stat line - especially against Wilson and the 'Hawks - his chances of cashing as a preseason long shot will skyrocket.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.