Cotton Bowl betting preview: Ohio State destined for national title game

Ohio State has looked unstoppable in its two playoff games, beating Tennessee by 25 and decimating No. 1 Oregon by 20. The Buckeyes are rightfully the favorite (-145) to win the national title with the most talented (and most expensive) roster. But first, they have to go through Texas on Friday night in the semifinals in Dallas.

With kryptonite Michigan not in the playoff, it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes losing.

Texas had a relatively easy path to the semifinal, defeating Clemson and Arizona State, two programs that made the tournament as conference champions but weren't among the nation's best teams.

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Ohio State (-5.5, O/U 53.5)

The public and sharp bettors are all over Ohio State; 77% of bets and 86% of the money wagered are on the Buckeyes to cover the spread. It's easy to see why after they thoroughly dominated two top-10 teams.

It was hard to project how Ohio State would respond after a deflating and embarrassing loss to Michigan to close out the regular season. However, Ryan Day's group looks as motivated to win a national title as any group he's coached. There was speculation Day could lose his job if the Buckeyes didn't advance far in the playoffs, but a national title appearance would certainly calm those concerns.

Ohio State has the nation's best scoring defense, holding opponents to 12 points per game. Its athleticism, particularly in its defensive front, jumps off the TV and wrecks opposing offensive lines. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has had a shaky season and has struggled with turnovers the last month, and he'll face the toughest defense he's seen this campaign. Ohio State will surely attempt to make him uncomfortable with loads of pressure.

The only comparable defense Texas has played this season was Georgia, and the Longhorns scored 34 total points against the Bulldogs in two losses. Ewers completed less than 60% of his passes in both matchups. The junior signal-caller has thrown five interceptions in his last four games.

Texas' defense has carried it this far. It allows 14 points per game, the fourth-best scoring defense. However, Ohio State's passing offense has been clicking as quarterback Will Howard picks apart opposing defenses with premier playmakers on the outside, including freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith. Besides the Michigan game, Howard has been accurate and playing mistake-free football.

The Longhorns barely escaped Texas A&M in the season finale, lost to Georgia in the SEC championship, and let Arizona State storm back in the fourth quarter of the quarterfinals before squeaking out an overtime win. Texas has looked beatable over the last month and has to play a far superior opponent Friday night. Its only advantage is the game is in Dallas, but Ohio State fans travel.

The Buckeyes' defense should shut down Texas' suspect offense. The Longhorns won't keep pace with Ohio State's offensive output.

Pick: Ohio State -5.5

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.