Upset blueprint: How Vandy shocked Alabama
That. Just. Happened.
One week you're the king of college football after an epic win over Georgia, and the next you're watching Vanderbilt students take down the goal posts in celebration of the program's first-ever top-five victory.
Life is coming at Alabama fast in 2024.
The Commodores stunned the nation on Saturday with one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history, shocking the Crimson Tide with a 40-35 victory.
Here's the blueprint for how Vanderbilt pulled off the unimaginable in Nashville.
Keep the ball away from Milroe
Alabama entered play scoring 47 points per game to rank among the top five teams in the country. Jalen Milroe is one of the Heisman favorites, and Ryan Williams is arguably the best receiver in the SEC at the tender age of 17. Vanderbilt knew it likely couldn't get enough stops if both teams had the same number of chances with the ball, so the focus was clear from the jump - keep Milroe and the offense off the field.
The Commodores carried out the strategy to perfection, possessing the ball for an outrageous 42:08 of game time, while Alabama's had it for 17:52. That's just over half of the 30 minutes of possession per game the Crimson Tide usually average. The 46 total plays by Alabama's offense are 19 fewer than they average a game and would rank last in the nation.
So keeping the Crimson Tide off the field was crucial. But just how did the Commodores do it?
Convert on 3rd down
The lifeblood of significant possession numbers is third-down conversions. If your offense isn't going to be explosive, conversions are essential to keep the ball. Vanderbilt put on a masterclass in this area on Saturday, outrageously converting 12 of 18 chances on third down, a 67% clip that would lead the nation. Even more incredible is the fact the Commodores entered the game converting just 38% on the season to rank 68th in the country.
The craziest part? Alabama came in ranked second in the entire country in third-down defense, stopping the opposition at an 83% rate. Just last week against Georgia, the Crimson Tide stopped the Bulldogs on 12 of 20 attempts on third or fourth down.
The third-down conversions by Vanderbilt helped the offense put up seven drives of at least seven plays, with the opening two combining for 27 plays and over 16 minutes of game action.
But how was a team that usually converts just 38% of third downs able to do so with such ease against Alabama?
Have a quarterback with irrational confidence
Alabama has fallen to future NFL quarterbacks over the years, but some of the biggest upsets against the Crimson Tide featured quarterbacks who will likely be going pro in something other than sports. You can add Diego Pavia to that legendary list after Saturday's performance, alongside names such as Zach Calzada, Bo Wallace and Stephen Garcia.
The New Mexico State transfer is exactly what you need to pull off an epic upset - an irrationally confident quarterback who has no idea his team isn't supposed to hang with the big dogs. Here's Pavia's quote from earlier this week, when he was reminded Alabama had outscored the Commodores 148-3 in the previous three meetings.
“This is a whole new team,” Pavia said, according to 247 Sports' Robbie Weinstein. “In the NIL era, every team will be different every single year. We got a team full of dawgs who prepare every week like they want to play on Sundays. And so with that, the only person that knows who's going to win on Saturday is God.”
Pavia finished the game completing 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two scores while adding 56 yards on the ground - by far his best performance of the season.
However, his most memorable moment came after the game in the middle of the celebrations, and it served as a reminder that nobody is unbeatable if you follow the blueprint.