Florida State goes from playoff hopeful to long shot after 2 losses
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Most programs started their season over Labor Day weekend, but Florida State's campaign effectively ended Monday night.
Florida State entered the season with high expectations after spending the offseason complaining about its College Football Playoff snub and suing the ACC for not letting it leave the conference. Despite the team having a significantly worse roster than last year's squad that finished the regular season undefeated, the Associated Press ranked the Seminoles No. 10 in its preseason poll.
The Seminoles were the favorite to win the ACC (+290) and had a 38% chance of making the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff at +160 odds.
It's harder than ever to sustain success in college football with the chaos of the transfer portal and NIL. Florida State is learning that the hard way after a Week 0 upset loss to Georgia Tech and a Week 1 upset loss to Boston College. Florida State has an uphill climb to turn its season around as it sits at the bottom of the ACC standings at 0-2.
Oddsmakers think there's almost no chance the Seminoles are a factor at the end of the season. Florida State has an implied probability of 2% (+4200) to win the ACC and 4% (+2500) to make the playoff. It went from the best odds to win the conference to the eighth-best in just two weeks. Miami moved to the ACC favorite after an impressive win at Florida.
The Seminoles' catastrophic fall down the oddsboard is as much about what's ahead as their slow start. The holes on Florida State's roster will continue to haunt them against a schedule featuring Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame. Quarterback is one of its most glaring weaknesses. Jordan Travis was one of the nation's best signal-callers last season before a devastating injury ended his collegiate career.
Florida State signed quarterback DJ Uiagalelei in a desperate attempt to restore success under center. Uiagalelei has put up a disappointing college career, to put it kindly. He was hailed as the heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence at Clemson but sank the Tigers' national title aspirations with inconsistent performances during his two seasons as a starter. He then transferred to Oregon State, where another shaky season and a coaching change led him to switch schools again.
Like other programs, Florida State took a chance on Uiagalelei because of his raw talent and esteemed high school profile. However, time is running out to realize that potential. Uiagalelei's fifth season has gone south quickly. He completed 21-of-42 passes and had a 27.4 quarterback rating in Monday's loss to Boston College, prompting fans to call for Uiagalelei's benching.
Following the contest, Florida State head coach Mike Norvell said people calling for Uiagalelei's benching is "part of the game." But it wasn't part of the plan for Florida State to start 0-2 and be knocked out of the playoff discussion a year removed from its best season since winning the national title a decade ago.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.