March Madness: Best bets for Saturday's Regional Finals

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

UConn destroyed San Diego State, but the other three underdogs won. There's a real chance Thursday's results are a virtual summary of this tournament, as the West Region bracket was blown sky-high with neither North Carolina nor Arizona securing a spot in the regional final.

With another edition of "How high is too high?" for a UConn point spread and what to do with a matchup few saw coming in Los Angeles, Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry break down Saturday's doubleheader.

East Regional Final: (3) Illinois vs. (1) UConn (-8.5, 154.5)

Matt's best bet: Illinois (+8.5)

I would have opened UConn -10.5, too. That's what the first sportsbook to market did late Thursday night, knowing that getting some early Illinois money would help balance the inevitable incoming Huskies bets. It didn't last long since that was an overreaction, but there's value left in one of the least fun bets imaginable - fading UConn.

Here are my projected spreads and actual lines for the Sweet 16 games and Saturday's regional finals:

The only games that don't line up almost identically are UConn ones.

Given that the Huskies are covering machines, what makes them impervious to the metrics that evaluate the other teams so accurately? My theory is too extensive for this space, but the Illini's offense and length allow them to defend when they want to, giving them at least a puncher's chance.

Sam's best bet: Illinois +8.5

UConn is a wagon, and betting against it should come with a "please be advised" warning for potential slaughter. But Illinois is the best team UConn has played since its loss to Creighton. The Bluejays' offense is similarly explosive, but Illinois' is better, with the nation's second-best offense (behind UConn), according to KenPom, proving so when it scored 72 against Iowa State, the nation's best defense.

Illinois boasts elite guard play and the weapons to keep up with UConn’s never-ending attack. The Fighting Illini are supremely confident and won't be afraid of the defending champ. UConn may still win, and its path to the title (+110) keeps getting better, but for the first time in a while, the Huskies will be in a fight.

West Regional Final: (6) Clemson vs. (4) Alabama (-3.5, 164.5)

Sam's best bet: Alabama -3.5

I can't discredit Clemson for making it this far. The Tigers have looked more impressive in the NCAA Tournament than they did down the stretch of ACC play, but they've been lucky.

Clemson dominated an overvalued New Mexico team, outlasted an injured Baylor squad, and beat Arizona, which shot 17% from three. Of course, luck is usually part of the formula for earning a Final Four trip, but this is where Clemson's fortune runs out.

Arizona is typically a 36% 3-point shooting team. The Wildcats had a horrific game plan, rarely running any action against Clemson's zone and chucking shots from deep. Many of Arizona's threes were in-rhythm, open looks. It wasn't the Wildcats' day from long range, yet they still had chances to beat Clemson late in the contest.

Clemson won't have the benefit of playing an opponent that shoots below 20% from three on Saturday.

Alabama has an incredibly efficient, up-tempo offense that prioritizes threes, free throws, and layups. The Crimson Tide shoot the fourth-most threes in the country.

The team's kryptonite this season has been its defense. However, it's seemingly turned up the defensive intensity this tournament, holding Grand Canyon and North Carolina to 61 and 87 points, respectively.

I wasn't surprised to see this line move from 2.5 to 3.5. Clemson can't keep up with Alabama. The Genie granted its three wishes to get the Tigers here, but their luck is running out.

Matt's best bet: Clemson moneyline (+140)

The Crimson Tide shot themselves out of every other NCAA Tournament game played under Nate Oates with a point spread shorter than -10, but what makes them a dangerous underdog is that they can also shoot 42% on any given night - as they did against North Carolina. They're not underdogs here, though.

Weirdly, Clemson's luck - Caleb Love's 0-for-9 deep shooting - found Alabama in the form of RJ Davis' identical 3-point stat line. Even with that debacle, North Carolina still racked up 87 points.

If Alabama's 3-point shooting is solid again, the Tide will win and cover, but Clemson has taken its good 3-point defense (32.7% in ACC play) from the regular season and made it great in three NCAA Tournament games. As they say, once may be an accident (New Mexico going 3-for-23), twice a coincidence (Baylor going 6-for-24), but three times is a trend (Arizona going 5-for-28). If Alabama doesn't shoot well, we'll see another favorite fall.

Just as importantly, Clemson made it this far without a big game from either PJ Hall or Joe Girard, instead riding the underrated Chase Hunter's hot hand in the big moments. Against Alabama's 104th-ranked defense, by KenPom, all three should get enough good looks to perform better than Love and Davis to score another upset and an improbable berth in the Final Four.

Follow Matt on social media at @mrussauthentic and Sam at @soshtry.