NBA win total bets: 11 teams to target before season tips off
Win totals are a valuable tool for evaluating expectations. It's our job to determine whether teams will exceed or fall short of them and maybe make some money based on those predictions. The NBA season tips off in less than a week, so there's no better time to give out our favorite over/under win totals.
π Find a full list of win totals on ESPN Bet and theScore Bet here
Over win totals
Heat over 38.5
The Heat won 37 games last year while dealing with the Jimmy Butler drama for half the season. Removing him from their orbit is addition by subtraction for Miami, which acquired Norman Powell this summer. Powell averaged 21.8 points per game on 41% 3-point shooting for the Clippers, serving as their go-to scorer while Kawhi Leonard sat with an injury.
Tyler Herro made his first All-Star appearance last season. Bam Adebayo remains a defensive menace despite his dip in offensive production. Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, and Kel'el Ware, among others, are a good enough supporting cast to play .500 basketball, especially in a weakened Eastern Conference. On top of its improved roster, Miami has the NBA's best coaching staff, which should add at least two more wins.
Celtics over 40.5
The Celtics have the worst frontcourt in the league following the departures of Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet. They have little rim protection, meaning they'll focus on relentless ball pressure to prevent guards from getting downhill. But Boston still has talent with Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Anfernee Simons. A gap year made likely by Jayson Tatum rehabbing his Achilles injury could still include a playoff appearance. Any Joe Mazzulla-coached group will play scrappy, and that might be enough to lift the Celtics to a .500 record.
Spurs over 44.5
Victor Wembanyama is visibly bulkier and, more importantly, dedicated his offseason to improving his playmaking and processing. He's already the NBA's best defensive player. If his offensive creation improves and he focuses on drawing defenders through drives instead of settling for threes, San Antonio can immediately enter the upper echelon of Western Conference teams.
The Spurs won 34 games last season, so an 11-game increase might seem ambitious. However, Wembanyama only played 46 of them, and De'Aaron Fox played just five alongside the big man. The team also drafted Dylan Harper second overall and signed Kornet in free agency. Wembanyama's leap from All-Star to MVP candidate is approaching, and the Spurs' win total will benefit.
Warriors over 46.5
The Warriors went 23-7 and owned the NBA's best defense with Jimmy Butler in the lineup after trading for him in February. That's a 63-win rate over a full season. They won't win that many games, but having a complete campaign to incorporate the six-time All-Star into their system will only help. Butler provided relief for Steph Curry last season as another on-ball creator and seamlessly fit in with Golden State's constant movement and cutting.
The Warriors signed De'Anthony Melton and Al Horford in free agency. While injuries could derail the NBA's second-oldest team, it acquired enough depth to overcome some expected absences and surpass 47 wins.
Hawks over 46.5
The Hawks won the offseason with opportunistic acquisitions at key positions. They added Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and welcome back Jalen Johnson, who was on an All-Star trajectory through 36 games last season before an injury ended his fourth year. Trae Young, meanwhile, averaged a career-high 11.6 assists and improved his shot selection. Atlanta, which won 40 games in 2024-25 despite dealing with multiple injuries, is a sneaky contender for the East. Three teams that were ahead of the Hawks in the standings - the Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks - are markedly worse than they were last campaign.
Nuggets over 53.5
The Nuggets won 50 games last year, but that didn't save then-head coach Michael Malone from being fired days before the end of the regular season. One person who simply can't be blamed for any perceived shortcomings is Nikola Jokic, who owns the highest player efficiency rating in NBA history, topping Michael Jordan and LeBron James. The team's issues since winning the 2023 title have often instead been linked to Jokic's supporting cast.
Denver had its best offseason since the championship, exchanging Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson, a career 39% 3-point shooter who will fit perfectly alongside Jokic. It also signed Jonas Valanciunas to avoid collapses in the non-Jokic minutes and landed Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. to round out the deepest team the three-time MVP has played with.
Knicks over 53.5
The Knicks, who won 51 games last year, used the offseason to find a new coach and add the depth necessary to reach the promised land. Mitchell Robinson is healthy, and the additions of Guerschon Yabusele, Jordan Clarkson, and Malcolm Brogdon will bolster the bench, allowing New York to withstand absences and provide relief for the starters.
Mike Brown's system will emphasize less isolation and more player movement and pace. In a depleted East, newfound depth and a fresh system should lead to a historic regular season in New York.
π Find a full list of win totals on ESPN Bet and theScore Bet here
Under win totals
Pacers under 38.5
The Pacers' playoff run ended unceremoniously when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Without Haliburton or Myles Turner, who left in free agency, Indiana is likely headed for the lottery.
Haliburton dictated everything the Pacers did offensively with his pace and playmaking. Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam aren't capable of being the top option for a winning team. The team's 3-point shooting, in particular, will suffer without Haliburton and Turner, both of whom shot over 38% from deep. Don't let Nembhard's scorching-hot playoff run (46% from three) distract you from reality: He shot 29% from three last year and is a career 33% 3-point shooter. Haliburton won't be around to create looks for him either. Buckle up for an ugly season in Indiana.
Mavericks under 40.5
The Mavericks' failures won't be about Cooper Flagg, the rookie sensation expected to turn them back into a contender. Dallas loaded up on size, creating a sturdy frontcourt that will limit opponents' shots at the rim and dominate the rebounding battle. But where's the shot creation coming from? Kyrie Irving is rehabbing an ACL injury. His timeline is unclear, but he'll miss at least the first half of the season.
Without Irving, the Mavs must rely on a rookie as their primary shot-creator. D'Angelo Russell will also assume ball-handling duties, but the more he has the ball in his hands, the more they're doomed for disaster. This is a funky roster that won't generate enough offense to make the playoffs.
Lakers under 47.5 wins
Everyone can applaud LeBron James' unprecedented run entering his 23rd season, but it's time to acknowledge that the four-time champion's age has finally caught up with him. He's sidelined with a nerve injury to start the campaign after finishing last year hurt.
One of the Lakers' biggest problems in 2024-25 was depth, as evidenced by JJ Redick using only five players in the second half of a playoff game for the first time in NBA history. Los Angeles desperately needed a center and signed Deandre Ayton to alleviate those concerns, but he's often been a net negative throughout his career. Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart were the other two notable signings, but will either move the needle? The Lakers will have to lean on Luka Doncic's heroics more than they'd care to admit, leading to an average season.
Trail Blazers under 33.5
The Blazers' bizarre move to trade Simons for 35-year-old Jrue Holiday only hurt their playoff chances. They won 36 games last year, and their roster worsened over the offseason as the rest of the West improved. Scoot Henderson is out to begin the campaign as well. While Deni Avdija has been a bright spot, that's not enough to push Portland past 33 wins.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more coverage.
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