What are the Knicks' chances of coming back?

When the Knicks choked away a nine-point lead with less than a minute remaining in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, the series odds flipped in the Pacers' favor. Since then, Indiana has remained in the driver's seat and is one win away from its first finals appearance since 2000.

With oddsmakers assigning the Knicks a 20% chance of winning the series, could they become the 14th team in playoff history to erase a 3-1 deficit?

The Knicks are the first team in NBA history to come back from a 20-point deficit three times in the playoffs - twice against the Celtics and once against the Pacers. That's a sign of resilience, but their opponent doesn't build a 20-point lead by accident.

The Pacers' success counters the notion that rotations are shortened during the playoffs. Depth matters more than ever, and it is a big reason why the Pacers are on the doorstep of the NBA Finals. Indiana plays incredibly fast and frequently picks up full court defensively. It has that luxury because it recycles in similar prototype players who don't drop the Pacers' production levels.

Indiana has eight players who average at least seven points per game and nine players who play at least 12 minutes per game throughout the playoffs. The Knicks have only seven players who are consistently in Tom Thibodeau's rotation. The Pacers' bench is averaging 10 points per game more than New York's.

New York's sloppy Game 4 effort could be a result of fatigue. The Knicks appeared sluggish, accumulating too many turnovers and displaying nightmarish transition defense.

The Knicks committed 17 turnovers in Game 4 and are averaging 15 per game this series. The Pacers are scoring more than 21 points per game off turnovers. Turnovers are a recipe for disaster against an offense that prides itself on getting down the floor before the defense is set. The game favors New York when it's played at a slower pace. But an even more glaring problem is contributing to the Pacers' offensive explosions.

Jalen Brunson's title as the king of New York is reserved for prestigious athletes or celebrities. He's earned every bit of that moniker. But here's the harsh reality: The Knicks have been at their best this series with Brunson riding the pine. The superstar has dealt with foul trouble, forcing Thibodeau to bench him for long stretches.

When Brunson committed his fifth foul with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Knicks led by two as he took a seat on the bench. They immediately exploded on a 14-0 run and led by 13 when Brunson returned five minutes later before squandering the lead in the final minutes.

Brunson again dealt with foul trouble in Game 3, picking up his fifth foul with seven minutes remaining as the Knicks led by one. Thibodeau extended Brunson's absence because of how effective the Knicks' defense was without him. Towns' fourth-quarter heroics lifted New York to its lone win as Brunson played a playoff-low 31 minutes. The Knicks were minus-six in Brunson's minutes, the only Knick with a negative plus-minus.

Despite blowing Game 1, New York outplayed Indiana for 46 minutes. In the only game the Knicks won (plus the one they should have won if not for a historic collapse), Brunson sat for long fourth-quarter stretches.

None of this is to say the Knicks are a better basketball team without Brunson, or that he should be playing anything less than his typical minutes load. He's the offensive engine of the group. If he's not working, the offense sputters. He also possesses a clutch gene, leading the playoffs in fourth-quarter and clutch points.

But the Knicks are a truly abysmal defensive team with Brunson on the floor, especially when he shares time with Towns. New York's defensive rating with Brunson on the court is 129 in the Eastern Conference finals. For context, the Jazz had the NBA's worst defensive rating during the regular season at 119. Without Brunson, the Knicks' defensive rating is 98 against Indiana, which would rank as the best among all playoff teams.

The Pacers constantly target Brunson, putting him in action and forcing mismatches. Brunson typically guards Aaron Nesmith, who's shooting 70% from the field with Brunson as his primary defender. But Nesmith's even more effective as a screener, setting ball screens for Tyrese Haliburton to force Brunson to switch onto the ball or get lost in pick-and-roll coverage. New York's defense is even easier to exploit when Towns is also on the floor.

New York's offense can't keep up without Brunson, but it also can't defend with him. It's an unsolvable conundrum. The Pacers have the best offensive rating among remaining playoff teams and lead all postseason squads in 3-point percentage, drilling nearly 40% of their attempts. If the Knicks can't slow down the Pacers' offense, they can't win three consecutive games. New York held Indiana to 100 points in its lone win. Slowing down the Pacers in consecutive games has been an impossible task, especially for a Knicks team that plays lineups with defensive liabilities.

Crunch time was a perceived strength for New York entering this series with Brunson, the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year. However, Indiana has been the more clutch team with a better offensive and defensive rating in three clutch games against the Knicks. Haliburton has scored 11 clutch points on 57% shooting and four assists, while Brunson has scored 13 clutch points on 33% shooting and just one assist.

It's conceivable the Knicks force a Game 7 in New York (+225 to go seven games on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet). These teams are fairly even, and all four games have been highly competitive. The Knicks are 4.5-point home favorites for Game 5. New York's been at its best with its back against the wall, but it has already tried nearly everything and still trails 3-1.

As fatigue kicks in, Indiana's 10-man rotation will reap the rewards as the Knicks' suspect bench suffers. That makes a Knicks comeback an improbable climb. Indiana has been on the right side of improbable during the postseason; its good fortune won't run out before the Finals.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.