Pacers become series favorites after improbable Game 1 comeback
The Knicks didn't just lose Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Pacers. They suffered one of the most improbable collapses in playoff history, leaving Madison Square Garden speechless and stunned.
New York led by nine with under a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. Prior to Wednesday, teams leading by nine or more in the final minute of a playoff game were 1,434-0 since 1997. At one point in the fourth, Indiana was +2500 on the live moneyline. But the Pacers' resiliency and Aaron Nesmith's shooting display willed them back in the game. Nesmith drilled six threes in the last five minutes of the quarter, including three in the final minute.
Missed shots, fumbled passes, and clanked free throws from the Knicks gave the Pacers the ball with seven seconds remaining, trailing by two. Tyrese Haliburton's heroics arrived for another iconic postseason moment, as he stepped back for a shot that hit the back iron, soared into the sky above the shot clock, and somehow fell through the net. While everyone assumed it was a three and the Pacers had won, Haliburton's foot was on the line, sending the game to overtime.
From there, the Pacers' momentum carried them to a win as New York looked tired and discombobulated in the extra period, still trying to process its collapse in regulation. Jalen Brunson, who finished with a remarkable 43 points, only made one field goal and committed two turnovers in the extra period.
The Knicks entered the series as -150 favorites, while the Pacers were +125 underdogs. That flipped after the Pacers stole Game 1 on the Knicks' home court. Indiana is now -165 (62.3% implied probability) to advance to the Finals, and the Knicks are +140.
As I wrote in the preview, this is a clash between evenly matched teams with similar statistical profiles. The Knicks should be optimistic because they outplayed the Pacers for most of the game before faltering in the final minutes. On the other hand, they blew a game in which they outplayed the Pacers and are now trailing in the series.
Brunson committed his fifth foul with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. With the Knicks superstar off the court, the Pacers were primed to take advantage. Instead, New York exploded on a 14-0 run, thanks to timely buckets from OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks were in the driver's seat when Brunson returned, but it didn't matter.
The Pacers threw various defenders at Brunson, including Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, and Ben Sheppard, who applied full-court pressure. None of them could slow down the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year until fatigue kicked in during overtime. Indiana also had no answers for Towns, who finished with 35 points. The Knicks dominated the offensive rebounding battle in the first half with Mitchell Robinson on the floor, creating extra possessions that often resulted in points.
Neither team earned consistent defensive stops in the high-scoring affair. The Pacers received contributions from across their roster. Haliburton and Nesmith led with 31 and 30 points, respectively, but six players scored double figures, and 10 saw the floor. Their depth might ultimately earn them a trip to the Finals, as the Knicks deploy a thin rotation that could wear down as the series advances.
Whichever squad can implement a reliable defensive game plan - more Robinson and Miles McBride might work for the Knicks - will win this series. Indiana's unimaginable comeback victories in each series make it seem as if they're destined for a Finals appearance. But the Knicks have also shown resiliency throughout the playoffs. They won't fall easily and are a 5.5-point home favorite for Friday's Game 2.
Oddsmakers essentially viewed this series as a coin flip before it tipped off, so the odds will continue to swing in both directions after each game.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.