Western Conference finals betting preview: Will Wolves upset Thunder?

Playoff scars are a mandatory rite of passage for any NBA champion. The Thunder's second-round loss to the Mavericks last year was a modest blemish on their path to contention after they missed the postseason the prior campaign.

OKC's Game 7 shellacking over the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic on Sunday should erase any concerns about the group's lack of playoff experience. Being the NBA's youngest team hasn't hurt the Thunder's efforts to bring Oklahoma City its first title.

OKC shortened its title odds (-180) with only four teams still vying for a championship. The Timberwolves are the next club in the Thunder's path, but oddsmakers aren't giving Minnesota much of a chance to advance to the Finals.

No. 1 Thunder (-350) vs. No. 6 Timberwolves (+280)

The playoffs are all about matchups. The Wolves benefited from ideal matchups as they faced the Lakers and Warriors, who were missing Steph Curry for the final four games.

Minnesota's series against the Thunder is a different challenge. Oklahoma City won 68 contests, had the NBA's second-best net rating ever, and then defeated the 2023 champion Nuggets in seven games. But the Wolves have won 25 of their last 31 contests. Do the Thunder deserve to be substantial favorites?

OKC's roster can negate any potential advantage the Wolves have.

The Wolves' size helped them against the smaller Lakers and Warriors, but Isaiah Hartenstein has eliminated the Thunder's size and rebounding woes. OKC outrebounded the Nuggets in Games 2-4 and kept the margin close in Games 5 and 7.

Minnesota has a five-day rest advantage over the Thunder, but OKC's youth and depth should mitigate any exhaustion concerns following a seven-game series. The Thunder consistently rely on a nine- or 10-man rotation and have a deep cast of capable reserves at every position.

The Wolves have the second-best opponent turnover rate and are second in points off turnovers this postseason, but OKC rarely turns the ball over. The Thunder have the best turnover rate during the regular season and playoffs. Plus, they lead the postseason in opponent turnover rate, points off turnovers, and fastbreak points.

Anything the Wolves do, the Thunder can do better.

Additionally, Minnesota's half-court offense struggled versus Golden State and L.A. Now it's facing the NBA's best half-court defense, which wreaks havoc on opposing offenses with outstanding ball pressure.

The Wolves have only scored 0.964 points per possession in the half court during the playoffs, ranking in the 50th percentile and below their 1.008 regular-season mark, per Synergy. The Thunder's defense has allowed 0.865 points per possession in the half court, ranking in the 94th percentile.

Anthony Edwards has been sensational, averaging 26.5 points, eight rebounds, and nearly six assists in 10 playoff games. His supporting cast has been equally as good, particularly Julius Randle, who's exorcised his playoff demons in his first season with the Wolves. He's averaging 24 points per game, six rebounds, and six assists. Minnesota has at least six players averaging at least eight points and eight players averaging at least six.

The Thunder will attempt to take the ball out of Edwards' hands and force others to make plays. Randle, Jaden McDaniels, and Co. have done that exceptionally well, but they haven't seen a defense like the Thunder's.

Oklahoma City has a multitude of tough defenders like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace to throw at Edwards. And when the Wolves have four-on-three opportunities, the Thunder can rotate and recover better than anyone.

Rudy Gobert has had an impactful postseason, but mostly because he's faced favorable matchups against small centers. In addition to Hartenstein, the Thunder can play Chet Holmgren at the five to create more space and force Gobert to chase him on the perimeter.

As for the Thunder's offense, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turned things around in the last few games against Denver after struggling with his efficiency and the Nuggets' zone. He scored at least 31 points in the final three contests and shot over 60% during that stretch. Jalen Williams also had a shaky series, but a 24-point Game 7 showing on 10-for-17 shooting should silence any questions about whether he can meet high-stakes playoff moments.

OKC has various players who can explode offensively on any night while competing at a high level defensively. The team's depth and nightmarish defense, as well as Gilgeous-Alexander's star power, will be too much for the Wolves to overcome as the Thunder slide into their first NBA Finals appearance since 2013.

Pick: Thunder -1.5 series spread (-165), Thunder in six (+425)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.