Clippers deserve more respect as Western Conference contender

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. The adage applies to everyone teased and tricked by the possibilities of a healthy Kawhi Leonard in a Clippers uniform, only to end up with egg on their face after his season inevitably ends with an injury.

Leonard hasn't finished the last four seasons and has only appeared in four playoff games since the 2020-21 season. He played two games in the first round each of the past two postseasons before being shut down with knee injuries.

But I'm ready to be fooled again after watching the Clippers surface as the league's best team over the last month, including Leonard's return as one of the league's most dynamic players. The "best team" label isn't hyperbole; the Clippers have the best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense over the last 15 games. They've ranked in the top three in defense all season.

For all the matchup analysis and schematic approach, sometimes playoff series and championship runs come down to who has the best player on the floor. Leonard was exactly that during the Raptors' 2019 championship run - the last time Leonard finished a non-bubble season healthy.

The Clippers opened the campaign at +10000 to win the Finals and +5000 to win the West as Leonard began the year sidelined. Los Angeles is currently down to +1500 to win the Finals and +3300 to win the championship on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. However, oddsmakers aren't totally buying the Clippers' late-season surge. The Thunder (-150), Lakers (+600), Warriors (+700), and Nuggets (+1100) all have better odds to come out of the West, and the Clippers have received fewer bets than each of them.

The NBA playoffs are often a chalk event. The Celtics and Thunder may likely advance to the Finals as overwhelming favorites. However, in this parity-driven NBA, it's worth striking on a sleeper instead of taking the team with the shortest odds. We targeted the undervalued Knicks out east and believe the Clippers could make a run in the West.

(Side note: theScoreBet/ESPN Bet offers a market for the championship-winning state, and California is +600. Three legitimate West contenders - the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors - reside in the Golden State. That's an interesting option as those three teams are top-five favorites in the West.)

Leonard only played 37 games this season, returning in January as a less explosive, slower version of himself. But the two-time Finals MVP regained form by March. Sitting the first few months helped him enter the playoffs as the healthiest he's been in years.

Since the beginning of March, Leonard has averaged more than 26 points on over 50% shooting from the field and over 40% from three. His explosion is back, as he forcefully gets to his spots and rises over defenders. He's also increased his trips to the free-throw line - a sign he's driving to the basket more. He attempted 1.7 free throws per game in January, while he shot 4.4 per game in March.

Leonard's re-emergence as one of the league's best players isn't the only reason the Clippers can make a run. James Harden has played at an All-NBA level, recording his highest scoring average since 2020-21. Most NBA fans will scoff at the notion that Harden, a notorious playoff sellout and perpetual underperformer in big moments, could help a team make a championship run. However, he'll have less responsibility during this playoff run than any other.

Harden was the focal point during Houston's playoff runs, and while he was second fiddle with the 76ers, he played alongside an unproven playoff star in Joel Embiid. Leonard is a proven, clutch playoff performer, meaning Harden can sometimes take a back seat. Of course, Harden still needs to contribute effectively, but there won't be as much pressure on him as years past.

Norman Powell has also played at an All-Star level, averaging 21.8 points on 41% 3-point shooting. Ivica Zubac has been one of the NBA's premier two-way centers this season, averaging nearly 17 points and over 12 rebounds while in contention for Defensive Player of the Year.

Leonard, Harden, Powell, and Zubac outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor, which would rank at the top of the league in net rating. Add Derrick Jones Jr. or Kris Dunn as the fifth guy, and their net rating remains outstanding. The Clippers have unlocked an elite lineup that can rival any contender.

Yet, the Clippers are underdogs (even) against the Nuggets (-120). Although the gap isn't enormous when Leonard is healthy, Nikola Jokic is undoubtedly the best player in the series. But Denver's supporting cast, which has let down Jokic in previous playoff runs, isn't as reliable as Los Angeles'. The Clippers' physical, high-intensity defense and coaching edge should limit Jokic's teammates.

The Nuggets and Clippers didn't face each other with Leonard on the court this season, but Aaron Gordon is expected to initially guard L.A.'s star. He's a strong, athletic defender who could give Leonard fits, and the Nuggets will undoubtedly send double-teams his way. Leonard's teammates are good playmakers who can take advantage of four-on-three situations, and they have reliable shooters all over (Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games).

The Clippers would also be underdogs in a potential second-round matchup against the Thunder, but this is a long-shot pick for a reason. L.A. has the defensive length and versatility to limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and force the Thunder's supporting cast to beat it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

The Clippers have the superstar, shooting, defense, coaching, and reliable ensemble to make a deep playoff run. Of course, that's assuming we aren't fooled by Leonard's recent stretch of good health.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.