Playoff pressure index: 3 teams and 3 players with the most to prove
NBA players and teams all come into each season with their own set of internal and external expectations. Everyone is chasing the same goal, but different circumstances produce drastically different stakes. Playoff runs and championship chases aren't created equal.
Here are the players and teams who are under the greatest pressure to deliver - the ones who stand to gain or lose the most - this postseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Some Thunder players are under more pressure than others this spring. For example, while MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven his worth on some of the game's biggest stages, secondary stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren must show they're ready to serve as championship-level No. 2s. But I went with the team as a whole because franchises don't get better chances to win a title than the opportunity staring Oklahoma City in the face.
Sure, the Thunder are seemingly built to last, with a perfectly fitting young star trio and one of the league's most enviable collections of draft capital. But OKC doesn't need to be reminded that sometimes a team's first real chance at a title ends up being its best chance - or its only chance.
The Thunder finished 16 games ahead of the second-place Rockets in the Western Conference standings, becoming just the seventh team in the NBA's 79-year history to win at least 68 games. The last three to do so all made the Finals. No team has ever posted a better point differential, and the historic teams that own the second- through fifth-best point differentials all won championships. They have a top-tier superstar in his absolute prime and own the best league-adjusted defense of the last five years. They have home-court advantage throughout the entirety of the playoffs. The time is now.
That point is magnified by the fact that the small-market Thunder will soon get mighty expensive in an apron world, with Williams and Holmgren eligible for extensions this summer. - Joseph Casciaro
Cavaliers' core 4
Individually, every member of the Cavs' main quartet has had nice playoff moments. Darius Garland was a bright spot in an otherwise ugly first-round loss to the Knicks in 2023. Donovan Mitchell has produced some monster series over the years, and he almost single-handedly dragged Cleveland through a first-round war against Orlando last year. The lights didn't prove too bright for Jarrett Allen in that Magic series, though he was sidelined with a rib injury after four games. Evan Mobley showed out in the ensuing second-round series against Boston, especially after Mitchell joined Allen on the shelf.
Collectively, though, this group has been a major postseason disappointment. Cleveland's core four has been tentative, skittish, and physically overwhelmed on this stage. That Celtics series turned out to be a write-off, but the Cavs should've been more competitive against the Knicks and should've had a much easier time dispatching the Magic. You can blame inexperience for what happened two years ago and injuries for what happened last year, but there are no excuses this time around.
The Cavs just won 64 games and cruised to the East's No. 1 seed with a top-20 net rating in NBA history. Offense was their big playoff bugaboo the last two years, but they led the league on that side of the ball this season and ranked 16th all time when adjusting for era. Mobley made a big offensive leap and might win Defensive Player of the Year. Garland has clearly put last year's jaw injury behind him and is back to playing like an All-Star. Mitchell has a shot to make All-NBA first team. Allen has been rock-solid in the middle and played in all 82 games after being questioned by teammates for sitting out last spring. And they finally have an ideal big wing to slot between them, De'Andre Hunter.
They have an easy first-round matchup against Atlanta/Miami that they should take care of in five games or fewer. Then they'll face a tougher but still winnable series against Indiana or Milwaukee. Anything less than a competitive conference finals loss to the Celtics will feel like a letdown for a team that ticks every box as a championship contender. If the Cavs fall short of that, after the regular season they just had, the noise surrounding this core's playoff viability will get extremely loud. - Joe Wolfond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Few roles come with more pressure than that of Knicks savior. You could argue Jalen Brunson actually shoulders that responsibility, or point out that New York surrendered more to acquire Mikal Bridges. But Towns - a tri-state area native - was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle, the finishing touch on a contender years in the making.
Towns delivered in his first season with the Knicks, averaging 24.4 points and a career-high 12.8 rebounds on 63% true shooting, putting him in contention for a third career All-NBA selection. But the regular season (and offensive production) has never been an issue for Towns. The postseason is where his demons reveal themselves, and this time, they'll be waiting for him next to the many ghosts that have haunted the Knicks over the decades since their last championship in 1973.
For New York to end its 52-year title drought and for Towns to silence his critics - which it appeared he'd done in leading Minnesota over Denver last year before unraveling in the West final - he'll have to avoid the rushed offense, sketchy decision-making, and jittery, foul-happy defense that's plagued his postseason career.
The Knicks' defense has been better since center Mitchell Robinson returned to the lineup, but he's unlikely to start, meaning there'll still be plenty of minutes for New York to survive with Towns at the five. That could be a problem, as The Big Bodega has neither the footwork to defend in space nor the track record of a rim-protector. - Casciaro
Julius Randle
There are a lot of reasons why the Timberwolves haven't performed as well this season as they did last, and why they might not go as deep in the playoffs. But considering how little else about their roster has changed, here's the one people are most likely to glom onto if things go poorly: Last year, the Wolves started Towns at power forward and reached the conference finals; this year, they start Randle at the four and might get bounced in the first round.
That's obviously unfair to Randle, who's been adaptable and mostly very good in Minnesota. But it's the reality of the position he was put in when he got traded for Towns, a pillar of Minnesota's best team in 20 years. I'd argue Randle has even more to prove; Towns at least has two gold stars on his postseason resume after how he played in series wins over Phoenix and Denver last year. There's no way to sugarcoat Randle's two playoff appearances with the Knicks. He shot 39% from 2-point range and 28% from deep across 15 games, with more turnovers than assists. It was an abject disaster for a guy named All-NBA in both seasons.
The Wolves badly need regular-season Randle to show up to have a hope of knocking off the Lakers in the first round. They need the guy who committed to moving the ball, making quick decisions, and defending with focus in the second half of the season, not the one who holds the ball and jab-steps and loses track of his defensive assignment. If they get the former, they can beat L.A. and put themselves in position to return to the West finals.
The Lakers' interior defense is vulnerable, and Randle is the type of driver and finisher who can exploit that vulnerability - if he's intentional about it. JJ Redick's defensive scheme will bend heavily toward Anthony Edwards, and more than anyone else, Randle will be relied upon to capitalize. Oh yeah, he'll also start out as the primary defender on LeBron James. No pressure. - Wolfond
Jimmy Butler
Butler has nothing left to prove as a playoff performer. He's the ultimate big-game player, with multiple Finals runs in Miami where he dragged inferior teams to the brink of championships to prove it. But he hasn't won the whole darn thing yet, and he's burned bridges at every stop along the way of his Hall of Fame career, using chaos as leverage in plotting each departure. Butler once again got his way in landing with the Warriors, and he got paid, with Golden State tethering his contract to those of franchise pillars Steph Curry and Draymond Green.
Butler appears on this list because of what he represents for the Warriors. He was brought to The Bay to extend Golden State's championship window and maximize what's left of Curry's career. Butler's in-between game, off-ball activity, playmaking, and general basketball IQ are precisely what the Warriors needed in their quest for a secondary star. And the way he elevated the Warriors during the regular season - plus his impressive performance in Tuesday's play-in victory - indicates he's up to the task. But he's 35 years old, can sometimes be too passive offensively, and not quite what he once was defensively.
The Warriors need Butler fully engaged and at his best just to get out of the first round, let alone to win a fifth title in 11 years. It's time for Butler to write a new ending - to prove once and for all that he's been worth every headache over the last decade, and every dollar of his new $113-million extension. - Casciaro
LA Clippers
The Clippers have already exceeded expectations by winning 50 games and nabbing a top-five seed, so they're arguably under less pressure now than they were in previous postseasons during the Kawhi Leonard era. In many people's minds, their window had already closed. That said, these guys aren't exactly playing with house money. This is still a win-now team with aging stars, major injury risks, and limited long-term upside.
As gracefully as the Clippers pivoted from letting Paul George walk (and boy, was I wrong about that decision), there are no moral victories for a franchise that's relinquished control of all its own first-round picks between now and 2030. And while the mid-career leaps from 28-year-old Ivica Zubac and 31-year-old Norm Powell have been heartening, it's not like the pipeline is bursting with exciting young talent. This may be the last best chance for the current iteration of the team to make a real run.
Leonard is healthy and peaking at the right time, James Harden has put forth one more (perhaps final) great season at age 35, and the Clippers are entering the playoffs as one of the league's hottest teams, having won eight straight and 18 of their last 21. There'd be no shame in losing a second-round series to the Thunder, but L.A. should be favored in its first-round matchup against a Denver Nuggets team in disarray. The Nuggets have home-court advantage and the best player in the world, but the Clippers are deeper and have much better two-way balance.
Adding to the sense of stakes is the fact that Denver's been something of a boogeyman for L.A. in recent years. The last time the Clippers got a healthy playoff run from Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray led a comeback from 3-1 down to bounce them from the bubble. Kawhi and Co. now have a chance to exorcise those demons and shed some serious psychic baggage. They can't afford to squander it. - Wolfond