NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Sarr opens as favorite

Following the 2024 NBA Draft, it's clear this rookie class has no marquee stars. The talent was dispersed throughout the first round, creating a jumbled Rookie of the Year oddsboard.

Only one of the last seven award winners had preseason odds longer than +400 (Scottie Barnes was +1100 when he won in 2022). This year, the favorite is +400.

Nine of the last 10 Rookie of the Year winners were drafted in the top five. The 2025 recipient could easily break that trend. Two of this year's top five favorites to win the award weren't even selected in the top 10 - Matas Buzelis went No. 11, and Dalton Knecht went No. 17.

Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds via theScore Bet

Rookies to stay away from

Zaccharie Risacher

The Hawks landed on Risacher because he can help them win now. Atlanta isn't ready to blow it up and enter a rebuild. The Frenchman is a 3-and-D wing who should complement the Hawks' on-ball creators.

There's not much else to Risacher's game. He must develop into a better scorer and creator. Risacher scored zero points in 23 minutes in the U19 FIBA World Cup championship for France last summer. The Hawks must balance his development with competing now. Risacher's the rare No. 1 pick who's not the favorite to win Rookie of the Year because he'll get fewer scoring opportunities than a top pick usually would.

Reed Sheppard

Sheppard is already the best shooter in his draft class and could be the best player. But he's not worth a bet for Rookie of the Year because his stats won't contend with his rookie counterparts.

The Rockets drafted Sheppard third overall to be a rotation piece off the bench and space the floor as a knockdown shooter. Sheppard led the nation in 3-point percentage in his lone season at Kentucky and has on-ball capacities beyond just shooting. However, Sheppard won't get as many shots on a guard-heavy squad with a blend of veterans and young building blocks.

Houston finished .500 last season and plans on making a playoff push next campaign. Sheppard should be an impactful bench player but won't have a large enough role to earn Rookie of the Year.

Dalton Knecht

The Lakers got the draft's steal, landing Knecht at No. 17 despite his top-10 projection. Like Sheppard, Knecht went to a team where he'll have an immediate impact but likely sacrifice shots and stats.

The Tennessee product's age isn't a concern for a franchise in win-now mode. Knecht's shooting and microwave scoring off the bench will help Los Angeles.

Although he fell out of the lottery, he's tied for the fifth-best odds to win the award. It'll be challenging for him to claim Rookie of the Year while assuming a bench role and playing alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves.

Rob Dillingham

Dillingham has a chance to emerge as a top player in this class. But despite the Timberwolves hoping he'll improve their lackluster bench scoring, the Kentucky alum won't have too much opportunity right away while playing for a championship contender.

However, this could be the season a rookie with low statistical output wins the award considering there are no projected stars in the class.

Rookies to target

Alex Sarr

Unlike Risacher, Sarr will have plenty of opportunities on one of the league's worst teams, making him the favorite to win. The Wizards are still in tank mode and don't have many reliable pieces to build around. Ideally, Sarr is one of them. He'll have chances to showcase that throughout the season.

Sarr's defensive versatility as a rim-protector and wing defender should immediately bolster the NBA's second-worst defense. His offensive skill is raw and underdeveloped, but he'll get ample touches on a team eyeing the 2025 draft.

Stephon Castle

The last time the Rookie of the Year went to a player on the same team in consecutive seasons was in 2015 and 2016 when the Timberwolves' Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns won.

The Spurs have a chance to be the next club after drafting Castle fourth overall to pair with Victor Wembanyama, last season's award recipient and a generational talent.

Castle insists he's a point guard but didn't have many opportunities to showcase it at UConn. San Antonio desperately needed a point guard to complement Wembanyama. The 6-foot-5 combo guard will have numerous playmaking moments alongside the French center. He'll also have a long leash on a young, developing team.

Castle shot 26% from three last season. He has to improve as a shooter, but there's optimism for his jumper in the right developmental system.

Zach Edey

Edey was a reach at No. 9 given his skill set, but the Grizzlies are a perfect fit for the two-time national player of the year. Memphis needed a durable center.

While the Grizzlies' offense won't feature many post-ups, their downhill drivers can dump it off to the 7-foot-4 center. Also, pairing Edey with former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. makes perfect sense. While Edey is slow-footed and can't guard in space, Jackson is a defensive roamer and can erase Edey's defensive mishaps at the rim.

The Canadian can have a similar impact as Steven Adams did in Memphis. Even the Edey haters must acknowledge that the highly debated prospect landed in an ideal spot.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.