NBA Finals MVP odds shift after Brown, Porzingis shine in Game 1

The Celtics cruised past the Mavs to take a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals. Boston attempted more threes than twos and drilled 38% of its long-range looks.

Although the Mavs cut the deficit to eight in the third quarter, Dallas had no answers for Boston's spaced-out, prolific shooting attack. The Celtics moved from -225 to -400 to win the series, while Dallas jumped from +180 to +310, giving the latter a 24% implied probability of winning the Finals.

When the home team wins Game 1 of the NBA Finals, that group wins the championship 78% of the time, which aligns with oddsmakers giving the Celtics an 80% chance to win.

How Boston won - relying less on first-team All-NBA superstar Jayson Tatum for scoring and more on his teammates with matchup advantages - shifted the odds for Finals MVP.

NBA Finals MVP odds before and after Game 1

The Mavs' problem is they are littered with defensive liabilities against a team that lives at the 3-point line. In its previous three series, Dallas had the luxury of packing the paint and distancing itself from at least one offensive player, leading to tremendous rim protection and limiting paint points.

Boston presents a different dilemma. It always has five shooters on the floor, including two centers who shoot at least 37% from three. The Mavs don't guard the 3-point line well and constantly have weak perimeter defenders on the court, which the Celtics exploited in Game 1. Dallas' lack of reliable one-on-one defenders led to a barrage of Boston triples off drives.

Tatum didn't perform well statistically - he finished with 16 points on 6-for-16 shooting and had six turnovers - but he didn't need to.

Tatum's drives forced the defense to collapse, leading to kick-out opportunities for his teammates. The five-time All-Star finished with five assists but had 14 potential assists.

Although Tatum led the team in shots, the Celtics' offensive plan was to create and hunt mismatches for Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown. That hurts Tatum's Finals MVP campaign. His odds slightly lengthened, and his teammates' odds dramatically shortened.

While the Celtics rolled past injury-riddled groups to coast to the Finals, Boston was also without one of its cornerstones. Porzingis reminded the world of his unique and valuable play style in Game 1.

He came off the bench and only played 21 minutes as his conditioning ramps up after sitting out for over a month with a calf injury, but his Finals MVP odds had the largest movement. He opened the series at +5000 and is now +550.

Porzingis' 18 first-half points allowed the Celtics to build a 29-point lead. As discussed before the series, Porzingis is the key to Boston's bid at its first championship since 2008. Dallas doesn't have an answer for him. He forced Dereck Lively to guard him on the perimeter where he drilled threes, created driving lanes for his teammates, and flew by Lively with space.

The Latvian center also took advantage of the Mavs' switch-heavy defense. When he sets a ball screen for a guard and Dallas switches, Porzingis immediately has a height advantage. He'll either abuse the smaller defender in the post or shoot over him in the mid-range. Dallas must figure out the Porzingis conundrum fast, but there might not be an answer. As Derrick White said postgame, Porzingis is a "matchup nightmare."

If the Mavs don't adjust properly and Porzingis' minutes increase, his MVP case will strengthen and the odds will shorten as the series drags on.

Brown's third quarter featured three blocks and a momentum-shifting three to fend off a Mavs run. He led the Celtics with 22 points and his odds shortened from +600 to +320.

Of course, this series is not over after one game. Although Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving's MVP odds lengthened, that could flip with a Game 2 win.

While Boston generated threes through drive-and-kicks, the Mavs didn't have the same success in their one-on-one matchups, leading to fewer spot-up opportunities.

The Celtics have a deep cast of quality perimeter defenders that limited Doncic and Irving in isolation. Dallas excels at generating corner threes - usually on dimes from Doncic - but Boston eliminated those looks. Doncic finished with 30 points on 26 shots and a season-low one assist.

Irving finished with 12 points on 6-for-19 shooting. Boston successfully defended Irving in one-on-one situations - a rare feat - but the good news for the Mavs is the former champion missed routine shots he typically makes, including open threes. Doncic and Irving must consistently win their individual matchups and create quality looks for themselves and their teammates.

Boston's balanced scoring attack creates a unique Finals MVP market. There could be dramatic game-to-game shifts depending on which Celtic carries the load. And it's never smart to count out Doncic, either.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.