Best bets for opening weekend of NBA playoffs

We've already broken down every series in the East and West and highlighted which teams to buy or sell ahead of this year's NBA postseason. But what about the games themselves? Here are our top plays for the first weekend of playoff action:

Timberwolves @ Grizzlies (-6.5, 236)
April 16, 3:30 p.m. ET

This is no disrespect to the Grizzlies, who were arguably my favorite team to bet all season long and deserve to be priced as one of the better teams in the West. I simply think this is too many points to lay against a frisky Timberwolves squad that can frustrate Memphis in the series opener.

It's no secret what the Grizzlies plan to do with Ja Morant back in the lineup: attack, attack, attack. The explosive scoring guard led the league in points in the paint (16.8) and helped Memphis lead the league (57.6) as well. It's not as if Minnesota has an elite interior defense, either, which makes it even more enticing for Morant to charge into the lane.

Here's the issue: I'm skeptical of Morant's ability to thrive in contact after missing 10 of his team's last 11 games with a knee injury. And if he's reckless when kicking it out - he committed 10 turnovers in his most recent two games - it'll feed right into the Timberwolves' chaotic defense, which thrives off ball-hawking in passing lanes and flipping it to easy buckets.

That formula has fueled Minnesota to a 16-8 record (14-9-1 ATS) since the All-Star break - just barely worse than Memphis' 15-7 mark; these two teams are simply closer than the market suggests. I expect to see the best version of these Timberwolves in Game 1, especially with Morant's health still in question.

Pick: Timberwolves +6.5

Nuggets @ Warriors (-6.5, 223)
April 16, 8:30 p.m.

Much like the Grizzlies, the Warriors enter Game 1 hoping to integrate their best player after a lengthy injury layoff. The key difference? Golden State didn't look right at all without him, and it's fair to question just how long it'll take to see the best version of this team again.

The Dubs limped to a 6-7 finish in their final 13 games, which coincides with Stephen Curry's foot injury. He's on track to return in Game 1, but that's still technically undetermined as we approach Saturday's tipoff. Without him, the Warriors certainly wouldn't be worth laying this many points, but it's not as if this team was lighting it up before his absence.

Since Jan. 9, the last time Draymond Green checked in before missing over two months, Golden State outscored opponents by just 2.7 points per 100 possessions - 1.7 points fewer than the Nuggets' mark over that same stretch - and simply hasn't rediscovered the defensive magic that made this team so dangerous early in the year. That's true even with Green returning to the lineup in recent weeks.

He'll have his hands full trying to slow down MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, who has carried Denver to the postseason behind career marks in virtually every facet of his game. Don't be shocked if the Nuggets steal Game 1 outright, but it should be a close contest at the very least.

Pick: Nuggets +6.5

Bulls @ Bucks (-9.5, 229)
April 17, 6:30 p.m.

In some ways, it's a shame we didn't get to see the best version of these Bulls down the stretch of the regular season, as they were among the league's most exciting teams early in the year. But that's a distant memory at this point, and what's left of this Chicago team is ill-equipped to keep up with the reigning champs.

The Bulls have been, quite literally, one of the worst teams in the NBA since the All-Star break. They rank 28th in net rating (-7.1) behind only the Trail Blazers and Thunder, who were both trying to lose games, and their 6-16-1 ATS mark includes a pair of 20-plus point losses to the Bucks.

There's no reason to get cute with this rematch. Milwaukee is the far superior team, is playing like a title contender behind a healthy core, and has dominated the season series with the Bulls. Especially with Lonzo Ball (back) ruled out and backup guards Alex Caruso (back) and Coby White (toe) still hurting, this one could get ugly from the jump.

Pick: Bucks -9.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.