UFC 323 predictions: Will Dvalishvili, Pantoja retain titles?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 323 in Las Vegas.
Bantamweight championship
Merab Dvalishvili (21-4)
vs.
Petr Yan (19-5)
"The Machine" can't be stopped.
Merab Dvalishvili has cemented himself as one of the world's top pound-for-pound fighters in the last 12 months, beating Umar Nurmagomedov, Sean O'Malley, and Cory Sandhagen to become just the eighth UFC fighter with three title defenses in a calendar year. Now he's trying to make history by becoming the first with four.
Standing in his way is former champion Petr Yan, whom Dvalishvili defeated in an incredibly lopsided 2023 non-title bout.
Yan has turned a corner since, winning three in a row to get back in the title conversation. Still, I believe we'll see a repeat of last time, with Dvalishvili overwhelming Yan with pace and pressure. Will it be as dominant a performance as the first fight? Maybe not. But Dvalishvili is still a nightmare matchup for anybody in the division, Yan included. He'll do more than enough to get the nod.
Another successful title defense for Georgia's finest.
π The pick: Dvalishvili, unanimous decision
π Check out all of the betting markets available for UFC 323 theScore Bet here
Flyweight championship
Alexandre Pantoja (30-5)
vs.
Joshua Van (15-2)
I'm tempted to pick Joshua Van. After seeing him outgun Brandon Royval in a Fight of the Year candidate earlier this year, part of me feels like he could do the same against Alexandre Pantoja, despite it being another big step up in competition.
But then I recall Pantoja effortlessly tapping out Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura and outlasting Brandon Moreno in a back-and-forth thriller, reminding me just how good the UFC flyweight champion really is.
Here's the thing: Van, at just 24 years old, can win this fight because he's as good as anyone in the division on the feet. However, he has to keep it there for that to matter, which is easier said than done. Pantoja is a phenomenal grappler and should be able to use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to keep the belt around his waist.
π The pick: Pantoja, third-round submission
Flyweight bout
Brandon Moreno (23-8-2)
vs.
Tatsuro Taira (17-1)
Former champion Moreno is looking to get back into the title mix with a win over one of the division's top up-and-comers in Tatsuro Taira. The fight is close on paper, but I'm leaning toward Moreno due to his high-level experience and well-roundedness.
π The pick: Moreno, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Henry Cejudo (16-5)
vs.
Payton Talbott (10-1)
How badly does Henry Cejudo still want it? Is Payton Talbott ready to fight the best at 135 pounds? Those two questions are largely what this matchup comes down to.
Cejudo, even past his prime, should beat someone at Talbott's level. I'm counting on "Triple C" to be eager to end his career with a bang.
π The pick: Cejudo, unanimous decision
Light heavyweight bout
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1)
vs.
Bogdan Guskov (18-3)
Old guard versus new guard. Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, seeking his first win since 2022, faces Bogdan Guskov, the winner of four straight. Going off that, Guskov should take care of business and cement himself as a title contender. But once in a while, the old dog teaches the young dog a lesson.
π The pick: Blachowicz, second-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
π₯ Best overall bet: Brandon Moreno (+100) def. Tatsuro Taira
Moreno should be the favorite in this fight. He proved in his last two wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi that he's still one of the best flyweights in the world.
π₯ Best prop bet: Merab Dvalishvili def. Petr Yan by decision (-210)
Dvalishvili earned his first stoppage win in years when he fought O'Malley for the second time in June, but Yan will be tough to put away. A decision victory is very likely.